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Old 11-03-2015, 06:01 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever View Post
We didn't transition out of the Stone Age because we ran short of rocks.
That's a false analogy becsue in this comparison at the end of the day you still have a rock.
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Old 11-03-2015, 06:17 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
You follow what DC is saying, Coalman?

Same on most ANY technology shift.

Landlines going away, and the Rise of Cellphones. We have/had 100's of years of Land Lines left . . . but folks are just walking away.

Horses to Cars --
It's a false analogy. Those shifts in tech have provided vast improvements in productivity, new uses, huge economic benefits. etc.

This is not a new or innovative product, at the end of the day when I switch a light on electric is electric.

Quote:
The renewable options are just Cheaper, Faster, Cleaner . . . and Better.

You can repeat that as often as you want, it won't make it true.


Quote:
Only thing keeping US stuck for a little while is "habit." We have to let the Old Plants, Old Operations, and Old Operators "die off" and the new generation shift is already ready.
You are not going to do this with solar and wind. You can pile coal to the moon next to a coal plant, you can't do that with solar or wind.
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Old 11-03-2015, 06:23 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever View Post
Their conclusion is that renewables will force coal plants to lower and lower capacity factors, further undermining the economic viability of building coal-fired generation.
You know as well as I do coal and gas plants are not going anywhere, you can build up enough solar capacity to equal that of both coal and gas and you will still need everyone of those fossil fuel plants.
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Old 11-03-2015, 07:20 AM
 
Location: DC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
You know as well as I do coal and gas plants are not going anywhere, you can build up enough solar capacity to equal that of both coal and gas and you will still need everyone of those fossil fuel plants.
Natural gas will stay for a while. Coal is on its way out.
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Old 11-03-2015, 11:03 AM
 
512 posts, read 376,988 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
It's a false analogy. Those shifts in tech have provided vast improvements in productivity, new uses, huge economic benefits. etc.

This is not a new or innovative product, at the end of the day when I switch a light on electric is electric
There is a new product that you are essentially buying when you get renewable energy - Clean air. There really is no effective market way to buy; that so renewable energy does have that advantage.

Quote:
You can repeat that as often as you want, it won't make it true.
2. The cost benefit analysis is somewhat uncertain but it could be cheaper now, and probably will be even more cheaper in the future to switch to renewables.

The cost calculation for coal is
Energy + pollution

while the cost analysis for renewables is:
Energy + intermittency

It is hard to estimate the cost of pollution or the cost to fix intermittency. However as new technology emerges, and we get a better grid, it will tip the scales towards renewables. I think we should look towards that direction anyway since why would anyone want to have soot in the air?

I could see a strong point if you were arguing for nat gas. But why should we even want to continue to use coal?
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Old 11-03-2015, 11:49 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Logicist027 View Post
or the cost to fix intermittency. However as new technology emerges, and we get a better grid, it will tip the scales towards renewables.

Without getting into the details about peak production and peak demand times let's suppose we replace all the capacity(X) available from fossil fuel plants with solar and wind. During an ideal day you're good for 8 hours.... What about the rest of the time?

Perhaps now you need X+X plus the added expense of storage(Y) for the rest of the day.

If the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing the next day? You capacity needs have now increased to X+X+X+X and your storage is Y+Y+Y. You're good for two days assuming one good day where mother nature is cooperating for 8 hours.

What if you end up with a week of bad weather? There is no guarantees for the weather. Because of this solar and wind can never replace fossil fuels unless you want to see your electric bill go through the stratosphere.

One might suggest you have a dual system and idle the fossil plants unless they are needed but this becomes even more costly. If you want a good analogy if you needed to drive a car 24 hours each day it wouldn't make very much sense to go buy an electric car for part of your trip and a gasoline car for the rest of it when you could just buy the gasoline car and be done with it.

In the end these technologies will be just blips on the screen of history. The future is geothermal, fusion or some other unknown technology that can provide base power.

Quote:
I could see a strong point if you were arguing for nat gas. But why should we even want to continue to use coal?
Natural gas is not as cheap as coal, it certainly has a place in the mix becsue it's ideal for intermediary and peaking plants that are ramped up and down. The problem is it's being pushed as producing less CO2 but this only at the point of electric production. Natural gas can contain a lot of CO2, this removed at the point of extraction and vented into the atmosphere. There is also a great deal of methane released which is much more potent greenhouse gas by many factors. These are not factored into the numbers when considering emissions.

Why Natural Gas May Be as Bad as Coal



....

Last edited by thecoalman; 11-03-2015 at 12:11 PM..
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Old 11-03-2015, 01:04 PM
 
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Coalman, one key part you are never questioning -- Is the Demand really inflexible?

Have to tell you from what I am seeing it is NOT.

Demand may be far more flexible than the supply.

Demand is mostly just collective habit.

Numbers are that it may be easier to shift the Demand Times and Locations than it is to Change the Production Times, Places, and Types.

Throw in some wide area dynamic networking -- with grids that flow both (or even more) directions . . . . and little to no serious storage is likely to be needed.

Quote:
Without getting into the details about peak production and peak demand times let's suppose we replace all the capacity(X) available from fossil fuel plants with solar and wind. During an ideal day you're good for 8 hours.... What about the rest of the time?
You follow that have dropped out ALL Hydro (totally Flexible), and Geo-Thermal (Practically Baseload) from your model?
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Old 11-03-2015, 01:34 PM
 
39,473 posts, read 40,779,124 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Coalman, one key part you are never questioning -- Is the Demand really inflexible?
Yes, for example here in Pennsylvania they had a series of record days of consumption with some brutally cold weather in the winter. This is when the sun would be low on the horizon and peak demand hits after sunset. I don;t remember what the weather was like but snow or cloudy skies adds a whole other dimension especially if it persists.

You can't meet averages, you need to meet worse case. If you can't meet that demand you're playing with peoples lives in the above scenario.

Last edited by thecoalman; 11-03-2015 at 01:47 PM..
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Old 11-03-2015, 03:29 PM
 
Location: DC
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Intermittency of renewables is a red herring. Our grid is designed to remain stable if the largest unit on the grid trips off line. Renewable generation comes such small increments that the loss of a unit is inconsequential and geographic diversity ensures that their production is not highly correlated.
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Old 11-03-2015, 03:30 PM
 
Location: DC
6,526 posts, read 6,458,491 times
Reputation: 3137
Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
Yes, for example here in Pennsylvania they had a series of record days of consumption with some brutally cold weather in the winter. This is when the sun would be low on the horizon and peak demand hits after sunset. I don;t remember what the weather was like but snow or cloudy skies adds a whole other dimension especially if it persists.

You can't meet averages, you need to meet worse case. If you can't meet that demand you're playing with peoples lives in the above scenario.
PJM is summer peaking.
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