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Old 01-25-2017, 04:11 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by High_Plains_Retired View Post
There are not nearly as many jobs as are in the coal and natural gas industries which are competitors.

Although there are many who hope things in the energy fields will change dramatically, all I'm saying is that I hope a more objective cost/benefits analysis will be done to replace the obvious political ones in the past.

Out here I've seen big plans for ethanol production, even to the point where the company had purchased the land, disappear overnight. Experienced farmers around here, even the ones who stand to make significant profits on wind energy production, will not be heartbroken, or even surprised, to see the wind people have to go and get other jobs. They've seen it happen in the past.

I do know plans for the wind farm that was proposed for here four to five years ago must have changed since construction on the first tower has not yet started. Even the meteorological tower is looking pretty haggard and weedy.
Vastly more incremental jobs on the wind side. Coal is certainly declining and natural gas will probably chug right along regardless of what happens with wind. Natural gas is probably doing more damage to coal then wind. Both coal and natural gas are subject to vast changes as the price of energy moves around.

Not aware that ethanol production ever made any sense. More a boondoggle supported by the agricultural industry.

And actually the energy field has already changed drastically. We just have not yet acknowledged it. The fully loaded price of solar PV has now reached the variable cost of coal and wind is not far behind. And for solar PV that price can be achieved without subsidies. And that is only the beginning. It will get considerably better over the next decade.
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Old 01-25-2017, 05:13 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvmensch View Post
And actually the energy field has already changed drastically. We just have not yet acknowledged it. The fully loaded price of solar PV has now reached the variable cost of coal and wind is not far behind. And for solar PV that price can be achieved without subsidies. And that is only the beginning. It will get considerably better over the next decade.
I agree with the incremental nature of wind jobs. There are small towns out here that would literally nearly disappear over night if the coal plants closed down. Beyond the white-collar fellows who live in the cities and the large acreage farmers here touting the benefits of a new wind farm, I've met one fellow in the past five years who actually did blue collar work with the local wind turbines.

Although price drives everything in energy, no matter what form of government you have, it drives it especially in a capitalistic economy. The only other thing that has any effect, certainly in the U.S., is politics. It probably does everywhere.

Basically it is the farm side of agriculture who are assisting the enviros to push wind energy but not normally for the same reasons. Having a few wind turbines on your inexpensive land paying $90,000 a year in payouts makes a lot more sense than being mortgaged to the hilt at the bank for cotton equipment.

I consider ethanol to be as economically destructive to the consumer as battery-powered cars. This year I had to replace every small engine carburetor in my large barn. Ethanol seems only to be good for corn farmers and the Chinese who now build all these cheap aftermarket carburetors. I have no idea what the ethanol mixes are doing to the engine of my F150.

Not to divert to the subject of ethanol and battery energy sources but I'm not opposed to battery-powered cars and transportation but, until battery engineering progresses beyond what the Egyptians probably had two thousand years ago, I'm solidly against it. I feel about the same for solar which is essentially the same as it was when Jimmy Carter acted as its cheerleader.

I agree that the energy field is changing. It is the threat of new energy sources that has kept the price of oil at bay. When one allows for inflation and foreign sources, the price of retail gasoline is about where it was when I pumped Texaco gas in 1967. I doubt we will ever see $4.00 gasoline again without lynch mobs forming.
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Old 01-25-2017, 05:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by High_Plains_Retired View Post
I agree with the incremental nature of wind jobs. There are small towns out here that would literally nearly disappear over night if the coal plants closed down. Beyond the white-collar fellows who live in the cities and the large acreage farmers here touting the benefits of a new wind farm, I've met one fellow in the past five years who actually did blue collar work with the local wind turbines.

Although price drives everything in energy, no matter what form of government you have, it drives it especially in a capitalistic economy. The only other thing that has any effect, certainly in the U.S., is politics. It probably does everywhere.

Basically it is the farm side of agriculture who are assisting the enviros to push wind energy but not normally for the same reasons. Having a few wind turbines on your inexpensive land paying $90,000 a year in payouts makes a lot more sense than being mortgaged to the hilt at the bank for cotton equipment.

I consider ethanol to be as economically destructive to the consumer as battery-powered cars. This year I had to replace every small engine carburetor in my large barn. Ethanol seems only to be good for corn farmers and the Chinese who now build all these cheap aftermarket carburetors. I have no idea what the ethanol mixes are doing to the engine of my F150.

Not to divert to the subject of ethanol and battery energy sources but I'm not opposed to battery-powered cars and transportation but, until battery engineering progresses beyond what the Egyptians probably had two thousand years ago, I'm solidly against it. I feel about the same for solar which is essentially the same as it was when Jimmy Carter acted as its cheerleader.

I agree that the energy field is changing. It is the threat of new energy sources that has kept the price of oil at bay. When one allows for inflation and foreign sources, the price of retail gasoline is about where it was when I pumped Texaco gas in 1967. I doubt we will ever see $4.00 gasoline again without lynch mobs forming.
I think the end of the coal industry is now inevitable. There will certain be a very long tail and a small industry will remain forever for chemical feed stock and other such uses.

And I doubt the battery powered car is the long term winner though I think it will be an electric vehicle. Eventually we will hit the point where we can do hydrogen by some form of electrolysis. And if electric production gets cheap enough it becomes competitive. All sorts of things become possible with electric power under one cent per kwh. And that may well be achievable. No time soon however.

And don't bet against the battery guys in the short term futures. I think we will see very competitive battery vehicles in the next ten years.

I don't think renewables had a lot to do with the price of oil. It was natural gas and oil from fracking. If the cartels allow oil prices to rise then these vast quantities of oil and gas come flooding into the market.
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Old 01-25-2017, 06:55 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvmensch View Post
I don't think renewables had a lot to do with the price of oil. It was natural gas and oil from fracking. If the cartels allow oil prices to rise then these vast quantities of oil and gas come flooding into the market.
I agree. The technology has fast grown that enables us to retrieve huge oil reserves that we have previously not been able to get to; e.g. the Permian Basin of Texas. The world is literally swimming in petroleum resources, this even as numerous nations are just now developing greater needs for energy. I don't think wind turbines, many owned by foreign companies, numerously scattered around most rural counties is any answer.

I'm not smart enough, or prophetic enough, to know where this will all end but I'm quite sure I won't be around to see any significant changes to energy resources.
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Old 01-25-2017, 07:31 PM
 
12,569 posts, read 4,748,202 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by High_Plains_Retired View Post
I agree. The technology has fast grown that enables us to retrieve huge oil reserves that we have previously not been able to get to; e.g. the Permian Basin of Texas. The world is literally swimming in petroleum resources, this even as numerous nations are just now developing greater needs for energy. I don't think wind turbines, many owned by foreign companies, numerously scattered around most rural counties is any answer.

I'm not smart enough, or prophetic enough, to know where this will all end but I'm quite sure I won't be around to see any significant changes to energy resources.
Sure you will. I am ancient but I expect to see a lot of it. I doubt you will see any significant numbers of windmills in the SW. But in the Midwest plains? By the thousands. I think what they have really found is the things really work well as they get big. 100 meters. 150? Maybe 200? As they get bigger they get slower and more efficient. A half dozen ultra high voltage DC backbones across the area and the whole Midwest is fed.

Out our way I expect all fossil plants will be duplicated with solar PV. I don't think we can do as well as the Midwest wind as we lose it at sundown. But eventually storage can be worked if we can get the costs low enough.

I think a very interesting decade coming up.
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Old 01-25-2017, 08:16 PM
 
12,504 posts, read 16,586,964 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvmensch View Post
Sure you will. I am ancient but I expect to see a lot of it. I doubt you will see any significant numbers of windmills in the SW. But in the Midwest plains? By the thousands. I think what they have really found is the things really work well as they get big. 100 meters. 150? Maybe 200? As they get bigger they get slower and more efficient. A half dozen ultra high voltage DC backbones across the area and the whole Midwest is fed.
In the public meeting I attended about five years ago, the proposal was for 1,000 new turbines that included within its footprint, my tiny farm. Here they talked about producing enough energy to supply parts of the northeast. We already have hundreds, if not thousands of turbines, in this county and the one next door. I have seen two huge power lines built north and south of us but right now these lines are only servicing the existent turbines to a central station near Abernathy, Texas.

We also have winds that many times die at dusk but not always. Last night the wind howled all night long. It may indicate a really dusty spring.

I hope I'm around in another decade but, if I am, I'll be 77. I'm pretty sure I won't be worried about wind turbines on the farm. At the rate I'm going, some nurse at the nursing home will be telling me to either put my guitar away or learn to play.
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Old 01-26-2017, 06:25 AM
 
Location: DC
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Almost 45% of new capacity added to US generation is wind. When other forms of renewables are included that jumps to almost 66%. There is more renewable generation capacity in this country than nuclear capacity.
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Old 01-26-2017, 10:21 AM
 
Location: Divided Tribes of America
13,539 posts, read 5,459,430 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever View Post
There is more renewable generation capacity in this country than nuclear capacity.
There is more wind and solar than nuclear?

Did you include hydro in renewables?
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Old 01-26-2017, 01:15 PM
 
Location: DC
6,509 posts, read 6,427,712 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freak80 View Post
There is more wind and solar than nuclear?

Did you include hydro in renewables?
Hydro is a renewable resource.

SAS Output
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Old 01-28-2017, 12:12 PM
 
Location: not normal, IL
776 posts, read 390,643 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vanguardisle View Post
Could they put a protective cage around the wind turbine the same as they sometimes do for the boat propellers to protect manatees?
I assume that would be expensive and dangerous, it would also brake up the wind, lowering the output. I don't know why we just can't put flashing lights or an annoying buzzer alarm on the propellers. Overall, I think it is more of a lead poisoning problem, since eagles are highly intelligent.
Many Bald Eagles Are Victims of Lead Poisoning, But This One Got Intensive Care
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Traditional Math generally comes out with Big Dam Hydro is the cheapest.
Once the Concrete is in, it is there for 100 years (or more). Zero Fuel Costs.
I think Hydro Dams are the worst thing we could build. I would much rather have a wind turbine next to me than a hydro dam. Not only do they disrupt fish reproduction they are the most destructive.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...causing-quakes
https://www.internationalrivers.org/...ggered-by-dams
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