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Old 12-11-2017, 11:15 PM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
2,783 posts, read 1,067,356 times
Reputation: 6004

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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever View Post


Guido doesn't understand fiance, so it's best just to ignore him. I gave up on education.
OK. I'm typing slowly so you guys can follow the arithmetic:

Monthly P&I on $30G loan = ~ $200, or $2400/yr. https://www.lendingtree.com/mortgage-

So you get to deduct $2400 from your income, but you only pay ~10% in taxes, so you only save $240 in taxes per yr....so far, you're 2400 - 240 = $2160 behind. ... but driving 1000 mi/m without paying for gasoline ($2.50/ga, & 20mpg), you save $125/m x 12m = $1500/yr... which you very responsibly invest along with the $240 savings from your taxes @ 5%/yr... earning you $87/yr.

Your PV system bought with the $30,000 loan saves you $100/m in electric payments, or $1200/y, which you also very responsibly invest, earning another $60/yr.

So far you have net earnings of -$2140 + $1500 + $87 + $60 = -$493 the first year. Your negative balance decreases a little each year because the interest earned remains untouched (sure it does) and earns a little more each year, but you won't get back to positive total earnings over the lifetime of the loan.

This analysis, of course, ignores inflation, but it also optimistically has you investing all those savings each month... and we all know how likely that really is. We're also ignoring capital gains taxes when you do spend the invested savings.

Now, please give me the detailed math of why this isn't true. Simply saying it won't suffice. Prove it.
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Old 12-12-2017, 05:13 AM
 
Location: DC
6,530 posts, read 6,473,260 times
Reputation: 3137
Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto View Post
OK. I'm typing slowly so you guys can follow the arithmetic:

Monthly P&I on $30G loan = ~ $200, or $2400/yr. https://www.lendingtree.com/mortgage-

So you get to deduct $2400 from your income, but you only pay ~10% in taxes, so you only save $240 in taxes per yr....so far, you're 2400 - 240 = $2160 behind. ... but driving 1000 mi/m without paying for gasoline ($2.50/ga, & 20mpg), you save $125/m x 12m = $1500/yr... which you very responsibly invest along with the $240 savings from your taxes @ 5%/yr... earning you $87/yr.

Your PV system bought with the $30,000 loan saves you $100/m in electric payments, or $1200/y, which you also very responsibly invest, earning another $60/yr.

So far you have net earnings of -$2140 + $1500 + $87 + $60 = -$493 the first year. Your negative balance decreases a little each year because the interest earned remains untouched (sure it does) and earns a little more each year, but you won't get back to positive total earnings over the lifetime of the loan.

This analysis, of course, ignores inflation, but it also optimistically has you investing all those savings each month... and we all know how likely that really is. We're also ignoring capital gains taxes when you do spend the invested savings.

Now, please give me the detailed math of why this isn't true. Simply saying it won't suffice. Prove it.
Guido, I've corrected your faulty financial analysis too many times in the past I wonder why bother.


Your $30,000 price would produce a system that in Washington DC would generate 10 kW and about 14,000 kWh/year. This would save $140/mo at 12 /kWh. $30,000 (neglection the 10% tax credit) would generate $100/month in interest costs. I'm $40/month ahead of the game already ($140 - 100). That's before the tax benefit of interest deduction. That's ignoring the 10% tax credit available to me. That's assuming I don't sell the green attributes on the market.
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Old 12-12-2017, 06:00 AM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
2,783 posts, read 1,067,356 times
Reputation: 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever View Post


$30,000 (neglection the 10% tax credit) would generate $100/month in interest costs. I'm $40/month ahead of the game already ($140 - 100). That's .
But you have to pay back the principle each month too, not just the interest... that's another $100-150 each month. You're behind, not ahead.
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Old 12-12-2017, 06:50 AM
 
Location: Forests of Maine
30,718 posts, read 49,511,045 times
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From what I have seen being marketed here, only the grid-tied net-metering systems can be financed, and those systems are twice the price [per kilo-watt-hour].

It is far cheaper to purchase each component with cash, and assemble your system once you have gathered al the parts.

My system was not financed.
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Old 12-12-2017, 09:23 AM
 
Location: DC
6,530 posts, read 6,473,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto View Post
But you have to pay back the principle each month too, not just the interest... that's another $100-150 each month. You're behind, not ahead.
Principle payment is about $40/month. Do you ever get anything right?
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Old 12-12-2017, 04:51 PM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
2,783 posts, read 1,067,356 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever View Post
Principle payment is about $40/month. Do you ever get anything right?

$40 x 12m x 30 yr = $14,400.... $30,000 - 14,400 = $15,600 you'll still owe after 30 yrs.

I gave you a reference to a mortgage site that stated a $30G loan would be paid back @ $239/m, P&I.

And even if we go with your imaginary $40/m principle, even by your arithmetic, that would put you at the break even point, not ahead.
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Old 12-12-2017, 06:32 PM
 
Location: DC
6,530 posts, read 6,473,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto View Post
$40 x 12m x 30 yr = $14,400.... $30,000 - 14,400 = $15,600 you'll still owe after 30 yrs.

I gave you a reference to a mortgage site that stated a $30G loan would be paid back @ $239/m, P&I.

And even if we go with your imaginary $40/m principle, even by your arithmetic, that would put you at the break even point, not ahead.
It's pretty easy to calculate. I use a spreadsheet and actual amortization formulas not some mystery black box. The simple truth is that at current prices in many places in the country PV pays off. I'm not using some Internet site. I'm using an actual installation in Washington DC. The truth is very inconvenient to your narrative.
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Old 12-13-2017, 03:34 AM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
2,783 posts, read 1,067,356 times
Reputation: 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever View Post
The truth is very inconvenient to your narrative.
Well, Master Mind, you have to pay down the principle so it comes out to zero at the end of the life of the loan. At $40/m it would take 750 months (62.5 yrs) to pay it off. At your supposed $100/m interest, that's $75,000 in interest.

Please excuse my obvious stupidity, but doesn't that mean your PV system would have cost you a total of $105,000?

You don't need to get too fancy in calculating the mortgage for this simple exercise in estimations: we just use simple interest, ignoring the monthly change in interest as the loan gets paid down.

A loan of $30,000 @4% = $1200/y = $100/m. And the principle ($30,000) is paid off in equal monthly chunks-- $125/m over 20 yrs. That means the PV system eventually costs you $54,000.

An average American electric usage of 900 kW-hr/m would be saved giving you a savings of ~$28,000 over the 20 yrs....but the problem is, that $30,000, 4kW PV system, even if located in the SunBelt where one could get 6 hrs of good sun per day, AND it operated at "boiler plate capacity" (they don't in practice) would only generate 720kW-hr per month-- leaving you 180KW-hrs short of your 900 average usage-- and completely short for charging your EV-- another 200kW-hr (average EV gets 5mi/kW-hr & and we're estimating 1000mi driven/m).

Submariner says he's living with solar for his farm, house and driving in Maine, where they get less than 4.5 hours of sun/d (yearly average) Solar Electric System Sizing Step 4 - Determine the Sun Hours Available Per Day,solar power,solar power home,solar power system,solar power plant,residential solar power,power services solar,solar power panel,residential solar power system,solar powe. So he's generating ~ 4x 4.5x30 = 540kW-hr/m. Good for him for conserving so much That's the real key to Green Living.
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Old 12-13-2017, 05:35 AM
 
Location: DC
6,530 posts, read 6,473,260 times
Reputation: 3137
Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto View Post
Well, Master Mind, you have to pay down the principle so it comes out to zero at the end of the life of the loan. At $40/m it would take 750 months (62.5 yrs) to pay it off. At your supposed $100/m interest, that's $75,000 in interest.

Please excuse my obvious stupidity, but doesn't that mean your PV system would have cost you a total of $105,000?

You don't need to get too fancy in calculating the mortgage for this simple exercise in estimations: we just use simple interest, ignoring the monthly change in interest as the loan gets paid down.

A loan of $30,000 @4% = $1200/y = $100/m. And the principle ($30,000) is paid off in equal monthly chunks-- $125/m over 20 yrs. That means the PV system eventually costs you $54,000.

An average American electric usage of 900 kW-hr/m would be saved giving you a savings of ~$28,000 over the 20 yrs....but the problem is, that $30,000, 4kW PV system, even if located in the SunBelt where one could get 6 hrs of good sun per day, AND it operated at "boiler plate capacity" (they don't in practice) would only generate 720kW-hr per month-- leaving you 180KW-hrs short of your 900 average usage-- and completely short for charging your EV-- another 200kW-hr (average EV gets 5mi/kW-hr & and we're estimating 1000mi driven/m).

Submariner says he's living with solar for his farm, house and driving in Maine, where they get less than 4.5 hours of sun/d (yearly average) Solar Electric System Sizing Step 4 - Determine the Sun Hours Available Per Day,solar power,solar power home,solar power system,solar power plant,residential solar power,power services solar,solar power panel,residential solar power system,solar powe. So he's generating ~ 4x 4.5x30 = 540kW-hr/m. Good for him for conserving so much That's the real key to Green Living.
Actually, it comes no where close to zero. I didn't include the tax benefits, the sale of SRECs, and the implicit assumption that retail electricity rates don't continue to increase in the future. As an investment decision, if your roof provides a good platform, this is truly a "no brainer". That you are opposed to something so obvious explains why you live in a trailer. You need to take counsel in Clint Eastwood's advice in Dirty Harry, "A man's got to know his limitations."
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Old 12-13-2017, 02:55 PM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
2,783 posts, read 1,067,356 times
Reputation: 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever View Post
"A man's got to know his limitations."
Agreed and now all can see yours.

Your PV system, if you sacrifice on usage by a quarter, is just barely a break even economic proposition, but you still don't see how investing your "saved" electric bill money on a monthly basis (which nobody has the sense of responsibility to actually do) won't earn you as much profit over the 20 yr lifetime of the system as foregoing the purchase and putting the whole $30G into investments for the whole 20 yrs.
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