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How (Not) to Run a Modern Society on Solar and Wind Power Alone
An article summarizing pitfalls and potential solutions to using all renewables. The only real solution is to drastically change demand for energy. The technological solutions to provide energy via wind/solar can't pay for themselves either in terms of money or energy requirements.
Demand for energy isn't going to change, it will only increase. I read a study that said that roughly 30% of the worlds population is living at a first world level. Meaning that they are using electricity at the same rate as first world countries. In the next 10 years, that number is expected to increase by 5%. So without much changing, the world thirst for electricity is going to increase by a huge amount. So looking just 50 years in the future, the world capacity for energy production is going to have to increase, just to keep up with the expanding population in fist world countries, and expanding usage in 2nd and 3rd world countries. Humans in the future are going to have to generate electricity from many sources, because as automation and technology increase, demands for electricity are going to skyrocket. There isn't anyway to put that cat back in the bag.
I also read that if 10% of the cars in the U.S. were converted to battery electric, the U.S. power grid wouldn't be able to handle it. So right now, the world has to depend on fossil fuels just to make it. Imagine what would happen if every household tomorrow, changed to electric stoves, electric clothes dryers, electric household heat, and electric cars. We couldn't generate enough power to keep the lights on. That is what the future of energy production will look like, once the coal and petroleum are gone.
We are going to have to have solar panels on the roofs of every structure on this planet, and billions of windmills to replace the fossil fuels.
We are going to have to have solar panels on the roofs of every structure on this planet, and billions of windmills to replace the fossil fuels.
But as the article points out, you need energy to produce the panels and you need 10x the capacity as the actual needed power demand to maintain a reliable supply.
The conundrum reminds me of the math of throwing a wad of tissue paper: the harder you throw it the more wind resistance generated that slows down the flight of the wad until the forward velocity actually becomes zero. dx is proportional to -x^2.
I also read that if 10% of the cars in the U.S. were converted to battery electric, the U.S. power grid wouldn't be able to handle it.
Smart meters will help here, you can charge consumers more during high demand. Lower rates during lower demand so they charge the vehicles and do other energy intensive things at night. That car battery could also be dual purpose, you can charge it at night and use it for power during the day when rates are high if you don't need the car.
Not only would this decrease the demand for new infrastructure it would also increase the efficiency of power production.
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once the coal and petroleum are gone.
The amount of coal in this country is an absolute stupendous amount, so much it's really irrelevant point. It and other fossil fuels will be superseded by some other viable technology, geothermal or possibly fusion. If either of those technologies can be be done feasibly they are absolute game changers, especially fusion.
Solar panels and modern windmills will just be an expensive blip on the timeline of history.
But as the article points out, you need energy to produce the panels and you need 10x the capacity as the actual needed power demand to maintain a reliable supply.
I would suggest it's much more than that and also keep in mind you need the means to store it.
Consider this scenario. It's January in the Northeast US, it's 0 degrees out, cloudy and no wind. Power distributors are hitting record demand at 8AM and it's going to be like that for the next two weeks.... entirely plausible.
Getting the world off of oil is going to be a daunting task just based on the current energy consumption used world wide. Hew Crane of SRI International came up with a new energy equivalent to try and help the masses understand this issue, it is called Cubic Mile of Oil. Currently the world uses a little over 3 Cubic Miles of Oil in energy, how much is that, 1 CMO is equal to 44.54 petawatt/h or 152 quadrillion btu's, we can times this by a factor of 3. This is only going to increase as the third world develops. So lets say we are going to covert over to wind and solar to replace this, because, sooner or later we are going to run out of oil.
So lets say we set a 50 year goal to get us off oil and on to wind and solar, we will have to build 32,850 wind turbines a year for 50 years or we'll have to install 91,250,000 rooftop solar panels every year for 50 years.
Based on the idea that a wind turbine needs about 0.16km2 of area to keep from hitting other turbins, the total land area would be about the size of New Zealand. The cost would be about 3 trillion dollars. Solar panels on the other hand would cover about 23,000 square miles and would cost about 68 trillion dollars.
Why not use water mills, tides and currents never stop?
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