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Everyone is thinking about the numbers, it's just that big corporations don't want to loose their billions once Shell or British petroleum invest in offshore drill and next year someone comes up with a way for green hydrogen, graphene en-mass, electric planes...you name it.
Renewables haven't met that mark yet, and probably can't. Giant windmills are energy losses when we include the manufacturing, construction, and maintenance. Many hydroelectric stations will be shut down as the west dries up. Old dams may break before anyone finds the money to repair them. Choosing new hydro locations in wetter areas will be a challenge as the climate whipsaws between extremes. The more practical and efficient (less lossy) solutions are more direct use, with less conversion between energy types and shorter transmission lines. Sunlight can heat water in a tank on a roof. Water motion can turn a mill to do mechanical work. A small windmill can charge a battery on site to operate a farmer's lamp or fridge.
If what you are claiming were true -- your conclusions might be correct.
But since some your basic information is so far off base, so is the result.
Wind Turbines are some of the fastest net gains on Energy. But this is not really about Energy. The Grid runs on money, and Wind Turbines are also some of the lowest cost per MWh production. So Wind Turbines are an easy win. Downside for Big Wind is Time-of-Use v. Time-of-Production. We like to use Electricity mostly in the daytime, especially in Summer. Big Wind produces best at Night, in the Spring and Fall.
Concrete Dams are some of the longest lasting Man Made objects. We do not really know Service Life, yet for the Big ones -- like Hoover or Coulee. I have worked on them. We are up to the Third Generation of the Electrical Portions and Second Generation of the Mechanical Portions -- but the Concrete is doing fine. Looks like it will last 100(s) of years.
You are correct that local production for local demand is best. It is also good to share surplus and/or have reserve back-up from others. Grid Tied Solar PV does both. Grid Tied Solar PV is now the most common new generation source in the US.
Renewables haven't met that mark yet, and probably can't. Giant windmills are energy losses when we include the manufacturing, construction, and maintenance. Many hydroelectric stations will be shut down as the west dries up. Old dams may break before anyone finds the money to repair them. Choosing new hydro locations in wetter areas will be a challenge as the climate whipsaws between extremes. The more practical and efficient (less lossy) solutions are more direct use, with less conversion between energy types and shorter transmission lines. Sunlight can heat water in a tank on a roof. Water motion can turn a mill to do mechanical work. A small windmill can charge a battery on site to operate a farmer's lamp or fridge.
Of the five states with the largest hydropower generation, Washington, Oregon, New York, California, and Alabama, California is the only one that is getting drier. And even though it is getting drier, it's only at a rate of 0.04" per decade. Of the five states that round out the top ten, Arizona is the only other state that's getting drier, and only at a rate of 0.06" per decade. Hydropower is going to be around for a long time to come.
The proof is in the crunch. When oil prices jump, we will have a better picture of what can be done without oil. I was expecting that to be within a year, but a more severe round of dying could drop energy demand.
LOL I met with a major IOU yesterday...They are replacing their simple cycle CT fleet with ng recip's. The one thing you guys are right is the money some people can make from renewables. I'll be consulting for them and laughing all the way to the bank......
There isn't much uglier than a field of solar panels.
An open pit strip mine?
A topped off mountain top?
Large piles of tar sand sludge?
A field full of generators, bright lights, and drilling equipment?
Crude oil storage farm?
Refineries and cat crackers with active flares?
A field of benign rectangular panels may be dull, not pretty, but also not really offensive either.
A field of benign rectangular panels may be dull, not pretty, but also not really offensive either.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but a 40 ac parcel paved over with silicon panels has destroyed 40ac of habitat.
Habitat destuction is far and away the biggest problem facing Mother Nature.
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