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Old 10-18-2016, 09:29 AM
 
Location: Somewhere in northern Alabama
17,739 posts, read 53,869,694 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lkb0714 View Post
No. Just plain NO.

The particulate matter, aka ash, (not "gases) can cause a geologically brief cooling by increasing reflection (as happened after Mt. Pinatubo erupted) but one a scale of more than a few years it is completely offset by the additive nature of the increase in green house gases (carbon dioxide, methane, sulfur dioxides and so on).



Again no, hasn't even been tested. In fact one of the only tested methods of directly effecting climate has been the iron fertilization experiments whereby iron is the limiting reactant for plankton which when added causes plankton to bloom, suck up CO2, sink to the bottom, and become sequestered long term in the sediment.

The problem, as it is with most "easy" fixes is the long term consequences are both unknown and potential equally dangerous.



I think it is also part of the human psyche to ignore the problem until it is at the front door.
re: the volcano effect. When the volcano in Iceland was curtailing air travel a few years back, it was estimated that the CO2 and gasses spewed by the volcano were concurrently offset roughly ten times over by the reduction in fuel use from the reduced travel.

The iron seeding experiment was stopped because of special interest intervention, pure and simple. The "unknown" and "dangerous" effects would have been an elimination of the entire money-making culture based on the FEAR of climate change. The hue and cry over the possible unknown effects was entirely out of proportion to the real potential, and was one of the clues to me about just how much of the whole climate change agenda is money driven.
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Old 10-18-2016, 11:58 AM
 
Location: Middle of the ocean
31,273 posts, read 19,739,850 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Mikala's criticism is reasonable despite the mix-up in climatology vs meteorology. Modeling a complex system is extremely hard to do. It is worth remembering that the field of chaos theory partly emerged because people realized that complex systems, like the earth's climate, do not behave in deterministic ways. Small changes in input result is huge changes in the output. That is why weather models fall apart and there is no reason to expect much better from climate models.

In general I believe in AGW but I also know that while complex models produce useful information they can be abused or misused. So while I am confident the sea will rise, I am not confident we know whether it will be 6" or 6' over the next 80 years. I happen to think the safe bet is to assume it will be 6'.


Which of those groups is responsible for always being wrong about our hurricanes?

(at least I'll learn something. )
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Old 10-18-2016, 01:58 PM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
26,413 posts, read 62,641,511 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
The predictions in the 70's for global warming to go exponential were not "quiet", but I suppose it depends on what channel you were tuned into, metaphorically speaking. Science teachers at school discussed it, and environmental organizations reiterated it from current studies/reports at the time. PBS had something on it, I vaguely recall.

As for pollution clouding the sun--not in California! The State of California had already instituted strict anti-pollution measures in order to get LA back to breathable air, and continued adding to those measures. Air quality was improving, and California became an example for the rest of the country. So Californians missed out on the particular doomsday narrative you outlined re: air pollution leading to frozen life on Earth. That's very strange. Where did you live at the time--a big industrial region?
Michigan.

It was discussed in science classes at school, and on the news. They presented evidence of overall cooling and the ice cap was growing and Canada would become a glacier then the northern US. We had to control pollution even if that meant going back to horses and shutting down all manufacturing or we were all going to freeze. There was evne a short little educational film about it they showed in schools and at community meetings that showed people living in sealed cave like buildings and only going outside for short periods in sealed and heated suits. When they walked around everything was frozen in place and it was all grey.

We were always about to die of something. No one believed we would live to be 30. It was how we were raised. Our scientists and politicians have always loved a good panic. Probably helps with funding. Excuse me for being cynical, but I am a bit tired of we are all going to die in 20 years from X then Y then Z except that nothing ever happens. Remember Y2K? That was backed by "science" too (although a minority were saying this is stupid, nothing is going to happen). Remember when they said we were all going to die young because DDT was in our food supply? (except that DDT has never been found to have any impact on humans, then or since). We were all going to starve to death for a while too. First it was pollution would block out the light and all the plants woudl die, then it was the planet could not support the population. We had 10 or 20 years to live. Heck you could write a rather lengthy book about all the "scientific" huge big deals that were going to end the world, but really amounted to nothing since 1970 through today. And yes, like now, if you doubted the predictions you were told you were an idiot and did not understand science.

But no, there is no reason at all to be cynical about the current doomsday predictions.
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Old 10-18-2016, 11:55 PM
 
7,981 posts, read 3,430,224 times
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You are a fool if you can't see the sea level is rising. Ever been to Miami Beach? Enough said.
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Old 10-19-2016, 09:50 AM
 
Location: Somewhere in northern Alabama
17,739 posts, read 53,869,694 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tominftl View Post
You are a fool if you can't see the sea level is rising. Ever been to Miami Beach? Enough said.
Sweetie, I lived in south Florida for over twenty years, had visited it on vacation ten years before that and I have pictures from long before that. The beach is in the same place it was then. There have always been periodic problems with spring tides, especially if there is an onshore breeze or a hurricane. As part of my work, I had to oversee two theatres on Miami Beach (Byron Carlyle and Bay Harbor) and was well aware of the situation. The news loves to use those times to claim that the problem is a) ongoing and b) caused by whatever is in vogue - global warming/whatever. Calling people fools is dangerous business if you don't have your facts straight and only believe what you are fed by those with their own agendas.

The real problem with barrier island development is that it pushes against nature. Barrier islands commonly shift over time, and are inherently unstable. There is an ongoing effort to plant salt resistant vines on the dunes and near the shore to limit the natural erosion. In areas where the mangroves were allowed to survive, that erosion is much less of a problem, but those breed mosquitoes and take away the more "valuable" beach and beachfront real estate.

Fort Lauderdale made a wise decision to ban construction on the east side of A1A, and while the seas do cover the road in sand from time to time, it is a much more sane and pretty way to handle the problems.

FWIW, there are a number of live cruise cams or webcams that show the beaches. You don't need to go there to verify the beaches are still there
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Old 10-19-2016, 08:51 PM
 
16,567 posts, read 14,005,185 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harry chickpea View Post
re: the volcano effect. When the volcano in Iceland was curtailing air travel a few years back, it was estimated that the CO2 and gasses spewed by the volcano were concurrently offset roughly ten times over by the reduction in fuel use from the reduced travel.

The iron seeding experiment was stopped because of special interest intervention, pure and simple. The "unknown" and "dangerous" effects would have been an elimination of the entire money-making culture based on the FEAR of climate change. The hue and cry over the possible unknown effects was entirely out of proportion to the real potential, and was one of the clues to me about just how much of the whole climate change agenda is money driven.
Bull****.

Did you work on any of the FeX? Because I did. It was not commercialized (they haven't stopped as experiments) because we were seeing cascading changes in primary producers, consumers and up. These are delicate food webs which if disturbed could have catastrophic effects.

As for volcanoes, source? Peer reviewed?
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Old 10-19-2016, 08:56 PM
 
16,567 posts, read 14,005,185 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikala43 View Post
Which of those groups is responsible for always being wrong about our hurricanes?

(at least I'll learn something. )
Hurricanes are tracked in the US almost exclusively by NOAA.

They are rarely "wrong" about anything to do with hurricanes because they deal in likelihoods and probabilities. They say thee is a blank percent chance of x, or a hurricane MAY do z, but if you are talking about people speaking absolutes, that is the weather channel.
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Old 10-20-2016, 09:35 AM
 
Location: Somewhere in northern Alabama
17,739 posts, read 53,869,694 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lkb0714 View Post
Bull****.

Did you work on any of the FeX? Because I did. It was not commercialized (they haven't stopped as experiments) because we were seeing cascading changes in primary producers, consumers and up. These are delicate food webs which if disturbed could have catastrophic effects.

As for volcanoes, source? Peer reviewed?
Please elucidate on the FeX and the changes you were seeing. The sources of my info only had short articles, so if you have first hand experience I would love to learn more absent any editor's red pen.

Source on the volcano - admittedly suspect, as it was related as a factoid on a British tv program (QI). I have a general resistance to overblown claims by those claiming doom and gloom, but found it interesting. In other words, I was including it not because I thought it particularly important (or repeatable) in the greater scope of things, but more as a balance against my own posts, which can get tedious and appear that I don't try to objectively look at other points of view.
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Old 10-20-2016, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Middle of the ocean
31,273 posts, read 19,739,850 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lkb0714 View Post
Bull****.

Did you work on any of the FeX? Because I did. It was not commercialized (they haven't stopped as experiments) because we were seeing cascading changes in primary producers, consumers and up. These are delicate food webs which if disturbed could have catastrophic effects.

As for volcanoes, source? Peer reviewed?


It was in one of Malcolm Gladwell's book or Freakonomics. At least that's where I read it.
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Old 10-20-2016, 10:20 AM
 
Location: Middle of the ocean
31,273 posts, read 19,739,850 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lkb0714 View Post
Hurricanes are tracked in the US almost exclusively by NOAA.

They are rarely "wrong" about anything to do with hurricanes because they deal in likelihoods and probabilities. They say thee is a blank percent chance of x, or a hurricane MAY do z, but if you are talking about people speaking absolutes, that is the weather channel.


Yes, I see the computer models and all the likelihoods.... I look at all the graphs and charts....


STILL wrong.
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