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Old 10-24-2010, 07:33 AM
 
39,288 posts, read 40,634,876 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
Again, I just stated my opinion based upon what I have heard and read, there is nothing unethical about that.
Not sure about the 95% but there is poll that came in with something like 85%??? I forget exact number. This is the one most often cited becsue it has the highest percentage in "agreement".

Besides the issues with how it was conducted the wording of the question itself was too simple, something like "Do you think CO2 has had a significant impact on global temperatures?". There is no quantification of significant and without that the results are meaningless. For example $20 is significant amount of money to someone that is homeless but it's not a significant amount to most people.

 
Old 10-24-2010, 07:46 AM
 
39,288 posts, read 40,634,876 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shelby93 View Post
I suggest all read Dr. James Hansen's book 'Storms of My Grandchildren'
You expect people to take someone that has been arrested at an environmental protest as credible? His bias is quite clear.
 
Old 10-24-2010, 09:49 AM
 
13,072 posts, read 11,408,470 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
You expect people to take someone that has been arrested at an environmental protest as credible? His bias is quite clear.
That is what i found odd, mainly because Shelby through this entire thread has dismissed based on accusation of bias, yet somehow Hansen who is known as a rather extreme activist is given a pass. It shows Shelby's obvious lean to a bias to hold such a double standard.
 
Old 10-24-2010, 10:00 AM
 
13,072 posts, read 11,408,470 times
Reputation: 2608
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
I believe the Antarctic is not melting away the way the Arctic is, but in the end it won't make much of a difference.
It is growing at the moment. What Shelby is referring to is its prior loss in the past and the point that it is "losing ice" is contingent on the position of multi-year ice reduction to which their hypothesis is that this loss will accelerate the ice loss and that any growth had will quickly melt. Though the Antarctic for the past couple of years has been showing strong growth often well above the 30 year average.



Source: NSIDC "http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png"

one thing that puts this into perspective is the following global sea ice averages:



Source: Cryosphere Today "http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg"

The problem with this position is while it has some merit, it is entirely dependent on the models, to which have consistently been wrong (often far off).

There is a growing debate going on in the climate science field concerning the heavy reliance on models as evidence and the extremely poor record they have.

It is one of the reasons why there is such protest in the physics community concerning many of the topics as this sort of support is unacceptable in traditional fields, yet it is predominately the foundation of the AGW position at the moment. If support from the models is removed as valid evidence, Anthropomorphic Global Warming falls apart. This is why models are clung to by those holding the position in the field.

It really is unfortunate that this is even being debated. There was a time when someone trying to use a model as validation to a hypothesis would be ridiculed in the extreme by the scientific community. Some believe that this being allowed is due to the influence of political activism as Hal Lewis (during his recent resignation from the APS membership) pointed out in his experience with the changes over the years concerning the APS.
 
Old 10-24-2010, 10:18 AM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
21,253 posts, read 19,244,927 times
Reputation: 8460
Models are the only way to predict future natural events. Do you think astrology or throwing dice is more accurate? The important thing is to keep refining models, i.e. to include as much data and details as possible so as to come as close to reality as possible.
We have come a long way already, weather predictions are much more accurate today than they used to be, thanks to improved models and supercomputers capable of crunching all the data.
 
Old 10-24-2010, 10:28 AM
 
108 posts, read 114,013 times
Reputation: 32
Normander -you keep producing that Antarctic ice extent chart

what about the one from the Arctic- is that not so favorable to the 'cherry picking' of information you provide here all the time.

Needless to say- Antarctica is a continent- and underneath that snow and Ice is rock not water as at the north pole. Additionally there are other geologic factors you conveniently leave out - ah that term cherry picking again- to the mass amount of people not as knowledgeable about climate change as myself- I suppose some people will buy misinformation.

Actually the amount of melting in Antarctica has doubled over the last 7 years

see this from NASA --oops NASA- you do not trust a 'Government' or 'Gubment' site-- but one from Exxon

Is Antarctica Melting?

NASA - Is Antarctica Melting?
 
Old 10-24-2010, 01:57 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
8,496 posts, read 6,112,847 times
Reputation: 8390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
Compared to you even Nomander is quite a reasonable person
Lol!

That from the person who would have us believe that "every butterfly influences the climate". Yeah, I guess my doubting that one puts me way out there, doesn't it?

But at least we agree on one thing....Nomander is quite a reasonable person.
 
Old 10-24-2010, 02:32 PM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
21,253 posts, read 19,244,927 times
Reputation: 8460
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrownVic95 View Post
Lol!

That from the person who would have us believe that "every butterfly influences the climate". Yeah, I guess my doubting that one puts me way out there, doesn't it?

But at least we agree on one thing....Nomander is quite a reasonable person.
It was a reference to Paul Erlich who said that the fluttering of a butterfly’s wings can effect climate change on the other side of the planet. There is also a concept known as the butterfly effect which I assume is related.
There are similar examples, for instance that a falling leaf changes the earth's rotational speed.

Relative vs. absolute
 
Old 10-24-2010, 08:46 PM
 
13,072 posts, read 11,408,470 times
Reputation: 2608
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
Models are the only way to predict future natural events. Do you think astrology or throwing dice is more accurate? The important thing is to keep refining models, i.e. to include as much data and details as possible so as to come as close to reality as possible.
We have come a long way already, weather predictions are much more accurate today than they used to be, thanks to improved models and supercomputers capable of crunching all the data.
Science is not a process of guessing to show a conclusion. It never was. The problem here is that prediction (which is unproven and unknown conclusions) are being sold as scientific conclusion. This never is and as long as the world is sane, science.

Now don't get me wrong. Predictive aspects have a place and unproven theory can be a useful tool. Theoretical physics is an area where it can not be shown to be true by any true scientific means (it is even scoffed at by applied physics and mathematics), but it can be a tool to developing into the "what if" which can later when technology or capability provides itself be a lead in to the verification process. There is no "close to reality" because they have no idea due to the numerous variables what reality even is.

The point is, it is not a means of coming to a conclusion. Since these models are predicting and often doing so by using complex calculations to account for the numerous variables they do not know, all that they get is a bunch of guesses producing a guess. What use is that in any definitive terms? You wouldn't live you life by such, why do you expect us to rely on it as such?

As for weather predictions, they are not more accurate because computers can crunch more data. They are more accurate (and this really is a stretch as they are only "fairly" accurate within a 24 hour period and that is only a 20% success rate) because they are learning more about what was once an unknown and simply a variable calculation before.
 
Old 10-24-2010, 10:09 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
8,496 posts, read 6,112,847 times
Reputation: 8390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
It was a reference to Paul Erlich who said that the fluttering of a butterfly’s wings can effect climate change on the other side of the planet. There is also a concept known as the butterfly effect which I assume is related.
There are similar examples, for instance that a falling leaf changes the earth's rotational speed.

Relative vs. absolute
He said that?

No wonder I've never heard of him....it's stark raving madness.
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