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Old 03-15-2013, 11:03 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
Greensboro is located on the hot sunbelt I-85 corridor. The city is at the crossroads of three major interstates. I-40 goes all the way to California, I-73/74 will eventually directly connect Greensboro with Michigan and Ohio and Greensboro is halfway between Atlanta and Washington DC and Charlotte and Raleigh. Why do you think FedEx chose Greensboro over Columbia for its air cargo hub?
If you want to talk about logistics and transportation, closer proximity to I-95 is more desirable, as well as to busy seaports. And Columbia has three DEVELOPED primary interstates. I'm pretty sure FedEx didn't chose Columbia because, as I stated, Columbia is already home to a regional UPS air hub. Even so, air and ground transportation/logistics in the 21st century isn't enough to make a place one of the premiere boomtowns in the country.

Quote:
A lot can happen in 20 years but I think it will take longer before the area is no longer recognizable as Greensboro as we know it today. Still its possible Guilford could hit one million in 20 years.
I mean anything is possible. Guilford could hit 4.5 million in 15 years and Forsyth could be closing in on 3 million, and Mecklenburg and Wake counties could drop to 300K; that's a possibility, even if infinitesimally remote. The real question is, how likely is it to happen? Guilford adding another half a million people, tripling its growth rate and sustaining that over two decades, is extremely unlikely under current conditions. None of the area developments happening or proposed, either singularly or in combination with each other, are spectacularly extraordinary enough to cause that to happen. You really should take the booster glasses off for just a second and at least try to be reasonable.

I just don't understand why you don't move to Charlotte or Raleigh if you want to live in a boomtown so bad. I think once you get a little older you'll realize that you're wasting some of your best years waiting around for something that might not ever happen or that you may be too old to truly enjoy once it does.
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Old 03-15-2013, 11:07 PM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
If you want to talk about logistics and transportation, closer proximity to I-95 is more desirable, as well as to busy seaports. And Columbia has three DEVELOPED primary interstates. I'm pretty sure FedEx didn't chose Columbia because, as I stated, Columbia is already home to a regional UPS air hub.

I mean anything is possible. Guilford could hit 4.5 million in 15 years and Forsyth could be closing in on 3 million, and Mecklenburg and Wake counties could drop to 300K; that's a possibility, even if infinitesimally remote. The real question is, how likely is it to happen? Guilford adding another half a million people, tripling its growth rate and sustaining that over two decades, is extremely unlikely under current conditions. None of the area developments happening or proposed, either singularly or in combination with each other, are spectacularly extraordinary to cause that to happen. You really should take the booster glasses off for just a second and at least try to be reasonable.
the key word you said was "current conditions" But Guilford has already seen a spike in job growth over the past few years and I would think the FedEx hub had a lot to do with it. Will Guilford hit one million in 20 years? I don't know. I can't predict the future. But it can realistically happen if the job growth rate continues to spike.
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Old 03-15-2013, 11:16 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
the key word you said was "current conditions" But Guilford has already seen a spike in job growth over the past few years and I would think the FedEx hub had a lot to do with it. Will Guilford hit one million in 20 years? I don't know. I can't predict the future. But it can realistically happen if the job growth rate continues to spike.
Dude, there's not going to be some sort of extraordinary, unprecedented change in conditions over the next couple years that's going to more than triple the growth rate of the county and sustain it over two decades--unless there's some undiscovered energy sources in the county.

I don't know what sort of job spike you're referring to, but it doesn't look like it was very significant according to this ranking (Greensboro ranks #127). If that particular trend continues, there's absolutely nothing realistic about the county doubling its population in 20 years.

Greensboro is a solid midsized metro in the Southeast that compares quite favorably with its regional peers. There are no indications that this is going to significantly change one way or the other in the near future. So just be happy about that or move to a city with the breakneck growth and huge skyline that you seem to pine for.

There's nothing more to say here. I think this is getting a tad bit ridiculous.
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Old 03-15-2013, 11:21 PM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
Dude, there's not going to be some sort of extraordinary, unprecedented change in conditions over the next couple years that's going to more than triple the growth rate of the county and sustain it over two decades--unless there's some undiscovered energy sources in the county.

I don't know what sort of job spike you're referring to, but it doesn't look like it was very significant according to this ranking (Greensboro ranks #127). If that particular trend continues, there's absolutely nothing realistic about the county doubling its population in 20 years.

There's nothing more to say here. I think this is getting a tad bit ridiculous.
Hey..it happened much sooner in Wake and Mecklenburg and they didn't have to have undiscovered energy sources.

"There are no indications that this is going to significantly change one way or the other in the near future"

Things are already changing as we speak. Guilford County has seen more job growth in 2012 than its seen in many many years. That along is a big change. If the county can keep that trend going, anything is possible....Consider this. In 2010, Guilford County had 488,000 people. Now according to the census, Guilford has just over 500,000....but any future growth ultimately is based on the national economy.

Last edited by gsoboi78; 03-15-2013 at 11:31 PM..
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Old 03-15-2013, 11:28 PM
 
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Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
Hey..it happened much sooner in Wake and Mecklenburg and they didn't have to have undiscovered energy sources.
*sigh* You have no idea what you're talking about.

First of all, Guilford isn't Mecklenburg or Wake--at all. The dynamics are much different.

Secondly, it was 20 years ago when Wake had 500K less people, and 30 years ago for Mecklenburg. How in the world is that "much sooner"?

Quote:
"There are no indications that this is going to significantly change one way or the other in the near future"

Things are already changing as we speak. Guilford County has seen more job growth in 2012 than its seen in many many years. That along is a big change.
It's not a change that puts it on the path to tripling the county's growth rate and sustaining that over two decades. Why is it so hard for you to see that? Get your head out the clouds for just a second and see things for what they are.

Quote:
If the county can keep that trend going, anything is possible....Consider this. In 2010, Guilford County had 488,000 people. now according to the census, Guilford has just over 500,000.
OK, so the county added 6K people annually between 2010-2012. Let's be generous and say that number doubles and it adds 12K people annually for two decades. That's an additional 240K people, which would bring the county population to 740K. But let's be even more generous and say that amount triples to 18K annually. Over the course of 20 years, that's an additional 360K people, resulting in a county population of 860K--still woefully short of 1 million. But we can be even MORE generous and say that amount quadruples; it would still only give Guilford County 980K.

I mean really, don't you see how the math just ain't stacking up? I know deep in your heart you're a reasonable guy, so just put your feet on some solid ground and admit that you're being overly ambitious here. I wouldn't doubt that Guilford would see accelerated growth but it's simply not going to more than QUADRUPLE the amount of people it's adding annually for 20 years. Gsoboi78, THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT HAPPEN.

Last edited by Mutiny77; 03-15-2013 at 11:37 PM..
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Old 03-15-2013, 11:41 PM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
*sigh* You have no idea what you're talking about.

First of all, Guilford isn't Mecklenburg or Wake--at all. The dynamics are much different.

Secondly, it was 20 years ago when Wake had 500K less people, and 30 years ago for Mecklenburg. How in the world is that "much sooner"?



It's not a change that puts it on the path to tripling the county's growth rate and sustaining that over two decades. Why is it so hard for you to see that? Get your head out the clouds for just a second and see things for what they are.



OK, so the county added 6K people annually between 2010-2012. Let's be generous and say that number doubles and it adds 12K people annually for two decades. That's an additional 240K people, which would bring the county population to 740K. But let's be even more generous and say that amount triples to 18K annually. Over the course of 20 years, that's an additional 360K people, resulting in a county population of 860K--still woefully short of 1 million. But we can be even MORE generous and say that amount quadruples; it would still only give Guilford County 980K.

I mean really, don't you see how the math just ain't stacking up? I know deep in your heart you're a reasonable guy, so just put your feet on some solid ground and admit that you're being overly ambitious here. I wouldn't doubt that Guilford would see accelerated growth but it's simply not going to more than QUADRUPLE the amount of people it's adding annually for 20 years. Gsoboi78, THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT HAPPEN.

The dynamics in Charlotte and Raleigh didn't change over night. It took decades and during the process those areas population growth rates began to pick up. But I guess its ok for Wake County to gain 500,000 in 20 years. Like I said, Im not saying Guilford County is going to gain another 500,000 in 20 years. I said its possible and that is depends on the dynamics that are beginning to come in play today.
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Old 03-15-2013, 11:46 PM
 
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Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
the dynamics in charlotte and raleigh didn't change over night. It took decades and during the process those areas population growth rates began to pick up. But i guess its ok for wake county to gain 500,000 in 20 years. Like i said, im not saying guilford county is going to gain another 500,000 in 20 years. I said its possible and that is depends on the dynamics that are beginning to come in play
ok.
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Old 03-16-2013, 08:16 AM
 
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It took Guilford almost 300 years to reach 500,000 people. It is not gonna get another 500,000 within a few decades.
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Old 03-16-2013, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarheelhombre View Post
It took Guilford almost 300 years to reach 500,000 people. It is not gonna get another 500,000 within a few decades.
it also took wake county 200 years to get to 500,000. Then they gained another 500,000 in about 20 years
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Old 03-16-2013, 10:49 AM
 
12,577 posts, read 13,302,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
All of what you say is good, but it's pure delusion to think that it will result in the county doubling its population in 20 years; the math simply doesn't work in your favor. Both Mecklenburg and Wake counties had a LOT more going for them in 1980 than Guilford does currently and it took them both over 30 years to add 500K people, but somehow you think Guilford is going to do it in less time? Look, I know we all love our hometowns and Greensboro in particular feels left out of the rapid growth trends happening in Charlotte and the Triangle, but Guilford isn't going to add a half a million people in 20 years. Don't even think about betting on that. Furthermore, Guilford County isn't an anomaly; it's not the only county adding jobs, building freeways, developing downtowns, gaining more national exposure, etc., yet all of the other counties that are doing so aren't going to come close to adding 500K people by 2033. I like Greensboro and all, but I don't see anything extraordinary happening or getting ready to happen that would result in such. Not even Hidalgo County, TX, on the Mexican border and home to McAllen, one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the South (it zoomed past Greensboro and other similarly-sized metros in the last decade), grew that fast. I'm sorry, but what you're saying just isn't realistic. It just isn't.

"Guilford County’s population in 2010 was 488,406, a 16 percent increase from the 2000 population of 421,047. From 2000 to 2010, population grew more slowly in Guilford County than for the state."

(Source: http://www.greensboro-nc.gov/modules...cumentid=13601)

Now we're already three years into this current decade, and you mean to tell me that countywide growth is going to jump from 16% to 43%-44% this decade and be sustained throughout the next decade? Because that's what it will take for Guilford to reach a million people in 20 years. There's nothing remotely close to happening in Guilford right now that would cause that--certainly not the developments you mentioned. Not even Mecklenburg and Wake counties took off that fast with the rise of the banks and RTP.
I'm not making this into one of your favorite subjects (Greensboro vs. Winston-Salem), but I'm just saying that Forsyth has more in common with Charlotte and the Triangle in terms of the factors that aided in those metros' growth. Forsyth doesn't have another principal city of the region in its county like Guilford does.
If you are referring to High Point allow me to ROFL. Okay, while High Point does grow history demonstrates, as does the current trend, the growth patterns are segregated. Right now that growth is on the NE corner while the rest of the city is stagnant. This has occurred on the north, south, & west sides previously.
As for the bolded statement your point is really moot as there are no walls at the county lines. W-S must contend with what happens in Guilford county whereas Charlotte & Raleigh do not.
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