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The 2012 official county census estimates are in. I've glanced over them a little and found an interesting stat. Guilford (NC's 3rd largest county by population) now has over 500,000 people. Guilford County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
That's quite unreasonable. Guilford County isn't growing anywhere near as fast as Mecklenburg or Wake, counties that did add at least half a million people within 30 years.
That's quite unreasonable. Guilford County isn't growing anywhere near as fast as Mecklenburg or Wake, counties that did add at least half a million people within 30 years.
I don't know about that. When it comes to wide freeways, Guildford could certainly handle another 500k easily. As Charlotte and the Triangle fills up (and becomes more expensive), people will begin to take notice of what the Triad has to offer. I expect Guilford's growth rate to speed up over the next few decades. Let's not forget that Meck was NC's first 500k county back in 1990 (not that long ago at all). If Meck doubled in 23 years, I think Guilford could do it in 30-40 years (if not sooner).
I don't know about that. When it comes to wide freeways, Guildford could certainly handle another 500k easily. As Charlotte and the Triangle fills up (and becomes more expensive), people will begin to take notice of what the Triad has to offer. I expect Guilford's growth rate to speed up over the next few decades. Let's not forget that Meck was NC's first 500k county back in 1990 (not that long ago at all). If Meck doubled in 23 years, I think Guilford could do it in 30-40 years (if not sooner).
I'm not saying Guilford COULDN'T handle another half a million people; I'm just saying it's not going to happen any time soon most likely.
Charlotte and the Triangle have different dynamics going on than Greensboro. I think that if any other city were to be viewed as an "alternative," it would be Winston-Salem since it has more of the elements that have made Charlotte and the Triangle successful (a stronger business scene/climate and higher ed/research with WFU). Still, Charlotte and the Triangle have a long way to go before any other alternative in NC is considered in appreciable numbers; I say each has to hit 4-5 million before that happens.
At any rate, I don't see anything happening anytime soon that would create a game-changer in Guilford that would cause such rapid population growth so quickly. There's not going to be another RTP, another big banking boom, or an unexpected discovery of oil; plus there are other cities in the Carolinas that could be viewed as Greensboro's competition that are candidates for "alternative" status to Charlotte and the Triangle in the future (e.g., the Upstate, Columbia). Even so, Greensboro is doing just fine as is.
I'm not saying Guilford COULDN'T handle another half a million people; I'm just saying it's not going to happen any time soon most likely.
Charlotte and the Triangle have different dynamics going on than Greensboro. I think that if any other city were to be viewed as an "alternative," it would be Winston-Salem since it has more of the elements that have made Charlotte and the Triangle successful (a stronger business scene/climate and higher ed/research with WFU). Still, Charlotte and the Triangle have a long way to go before any other alternative in NC is considered in appreciable numbers; I say each has to hit 4-5 million before that happens.
At any rate, I don't see anything happening anytime soon that would create a game-changer in Guilford that would cause such rapid population growth so quickly. There's not going to be another RTP, another big banking boom, or an unexpected discovery of oil; plus there are other cities in the Carolinas that could be viewed as Greensboro's competition that are candidates for "alternative" status to Charlotte and the Triangle in the future (e.g., the Upstate, Columbia). Even so, Greensboro is doing just fine as is.
You have to look at the trends in whats happening in Guilford County now, not base future growth on the past 20 years. More and more companies are expanding in both High Point and Greensboro. Guilford County outpaced every other Triad county in job growth in 2012. Job growth leads to a larger population. Greensboro now has the FedEx Hub, new freeways, Honda Jet, and Gateway University Park ect. Then there are the downtown plans like the University District. The city is also getting more and more national exposure through big national events such as the U.S. National Figure Skating Championships. All of this is going to put Guilford County on a faster track of growth. Its very possible Guilford could get to one million in 20 years.
Winston-Salem Forsyth has great ideas and has done great things but its hurt them when Greensboro turns around and duplicates some of those "elements" you talk about is less time. The research park is a good example. PTRP was 20 years in the making. Greensboro was able to plan and build in 5 years. Not only that Greensboro's research park covers technology areas other than biotech, which was the primary focus of PTRP. GURP took PTRP by surprise a little bit when it landed the nanotech school. So now PTRP is changing their strategy with a name change and now it will not just be a biotech park. The two cities always react based on what the other city does. There has always been this bitter competition between Greensboro and Winston-Salem. Its so bad there is a Winston-Salem message board that allows topics on all other NC cities except for Greensboro. Oh and don't sign up with a Greensboro IP address. I think you would may even get banned just being from Greensboro. You would think the site was being run by kids. Its very childish and its an example of how the Triad will never truly come together for the greater good of the region. However there are childish attitudes in Greensboro too. Forsyth will never overtake Guilford because there are too many powers in Greensboro that are going to make sure that doesn't happen. Its all about keeping Greensboro's number 1 spot in the Triad and the number 3 spot in the state. It was no coincidence when Winston-Salem annexed thousands and thousand of people through a mass annexation, a few years later Greensboro did the same thing. Whatever grounds W-S gained, it lost once Greensboro went through a mass annexation. Winston-Salem had started breathing down Greensboro's neck a little in population.
The political reality is a little different now. Laws have been changed which makes it difficult for cities in NC to annex so cities are going to have to rely more on people actually moving to the city. What makes people move to cities? Jobs and quality of life. This is why Greensboro and High Point are sowing the seeds to attract jobs. This is why Greensboro is trying to improve its quality of life with greenway projects, an aquarium, performing arts center, aquatic center, ect.
You have to look at the trends in whats happening in Guilford County now, not base future growth on the past 20 years. More and more companies are expanding in both High Point and Greensboro. Guilford County outpaced every other Triad county in job growth in 2012. Job growth leads to a larger population. Greensboro now has the FedEx Hub, new freeways, Honda Jet, and Gateway University Park ect. Then there are the downtown plans like the University District. The city is also getting more and more national exposure through big national events such as the U.S. National Figure Skating Championships. All of this is going to put Guilford County on a faster track of growth. Its very possible Guilford could get to one million in 20 years.
All of what you say is good, but it's pure delusion to think that it will result in the county doubling its population in 20 years; the math simply doesn't work in your favor. Both Mecklenburg and Wake counties had a LOT more going for them in 1980 than Guilford does currently and it took them both over 30 years to add 500K people, but somehow you think Guilford is going to do it in less time? Look, I know we all love our hometowns and Greensboro in particular feels left out of the rapid growth trends happening in Charlotte and the Triangle, but Guilford isn't going to add a half a million people in 20 years. Don't even think about betting on that. Furthermore, Guilford County isn't an anomaly; it's not the only county adding jobs, building freeways, developing downtowns, gaining more national exposure, etc., yet all of the other counties that are doing so aren't going to come close to adding 500K people by 2033. I like Greensboro and all, but I don't see anything extraordinary happening or getting ready to happen that would result in such. Not even Hidalgo County, TX, on the Mexican border and home to McAllen, one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the South (it zoomed past Greensboro and other similarly-sized metros in the last decade), grew that fast. I'm sorry, but what you're saying just isn't realistic. It just isn't.
"Guilford County’s population in 2010 was 488,406, a 16 percent increase from the 2000 population of 421,047. From 2000 to 2010, population grew more slowly in Guilford County than for the state."
Now we're already three years into this current decade, and you mean to tell me that countywide growth is going to jump from 16% to 43%-44% this decade and be sustained throughout the next decade? Because that's what it will take for Guilford to reach a million people in 20 years. There's nothing remotely close to happening in Guilford right now that would cause that--certainly not the developments you mentioned. Not even Mecklenburg and Wake counties took off that fast with the rise of the banks and RTP.
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Winston-Salem Forsyth has great ideas and has done great things but its hurt them when Greensboro turns around and duplicates some initiatives there is less time. The research park is a good example. PTRP was 20 years in the making. Greensboro was able to plan and build in 5 years. Not only that Greensboro's research park covers technology areas other than biotech, which was the primary focus of PTRP. I don't see Forsyth overtaking Guilford. There are too many powers here that are going to make sure that doesn't happen. Its all about keep Greensboro's number 1 spot in the Triad and the number 3 spot in the state. It was no coincidence when Winston-Salem annexed thousands and thousand of people with a mass annexation and then a few years later Greensboro did the same thing. Whatever grounds W-S gained, it lost once Greensboro annexed thousands of people. The political reality is a little different now. Laws have been changed which makes it difficult for cities in NC to annex so cities are going to have to rely more on people actually moving to the city. What makes people move to cities? Its jobs and quality of life.
I'm not making this into one of your favorite subjects (Greensboro vs. Winston-Salem), but I'm just saying that Forsyth has more in common with Charlotte and the Triangle in terms of the factors that aided in those metros' growth. Forsyth doesn't have another principal city of the region in its county like Guilford does.
All of what you say is good, but it's pure delusion to think that it will result in the county doubling its population in 20 years; the math simply doesn't work in your favor. Both Mecklenburg and Wake counties had a LOT more going for them in 1980 than Guilford does currently and it took them both over 30 years to add 500K people, but somehow you think Guilford is going to do it in less time? Look, I know we all love our hometowns and Greensboro in particular feels left out of the rapid growth trends happening in Charlotte and the Triangle, but Guilford isn't going to add a half a million people in 20 years. Don't even think about betting on that. Furthermore, Guilford County isn't an anomaly; it's not the only county adding jobs, building freeways, developing downtowns, gaining more national exposure, etc., yet all of the other counties that are doing so aren't going to come close to adding 500K people by 2033. I like Greensboro and all, but I don't see anything extraordinary happening or getting ready to happen that would result in such. Not even Hidalgo County, TX, on the Mexican border and home to McAllen, one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the South (it zoomed past Greensboro and other similarly-sized metros in the last decade), grew that fast. I'm sorry, but what you're saying just isn't realistic. It just isn't.
"Guilford County’s population in 2010 was 488,406, a 16 percent increase from the 2000 population of 421,047. From 2000 to 2010, population grew more slowly in Guilford County than for the state."
Now we're already three years into this current decade, and you mean to tell me that countywide growth is going to jump from 16% to 43%-44% this decade and be sustained throughout the next decade? Because that's what it will take for Guilford to reach a million people in 20 years. There's nothing remotely close to happening in Guilford right now that would cause that--certainly not the developments you mentioned. Not even Mecklenburg and Wake counties took off that fast with the rise of the banks and RTP.
I'm not making this into one of your favorite subjects (Greensboro vs. Winston-Salem), but I'm just saying that Forsyth has more in common with Charlotte and the Triangle in terms of the factors that aided in those metros' growth. Forsyth doesn't have another principal city of the region in its county like Guilford does.
Its more complex than that. By having factors in common with Charlotte and Raleigh, that doesn't automatically translate into a faster rate of growth. If that were true Forsyth would be larger than Guilford now and Forsyth would have added more jobs than Guilford last year.. Even if High Point's population were taken away Guilford would still be larger. Having common factors with Charlotte and the Triangle could be the problem for Forsyth because those cities are more grounded in those sectors which means they are the bigger magnets for those kind of jobs. Guilford County is taking a more diverse approach. Yes Greensboro built a research park but the city and county are also focusing on aviation, high tech manufacturing, logistics and distribution as well. Greensboro also has an insurance base with companies like Lincoln Financial. The diverse approach is whats going to put Guilford on a track for faster growth over the next 20 years. You have to have jobs for people of all walks of life and different backgrounds. Greensboro knows its not going to become the next RTP just because it has a research park.
Its more complex than that. By having factors in common with Charlotte and Raleigh, that doesn't automatically translate into a faster growth. If that were true Forsyth would be larger than Guilford now. Even if High Point's population were taken away Guilford would still be larger. Having common factors with Charlotte and the Triangle could be the problem for Forsyth because those cities are more grounded in those sectors which means they are the bigger magnets for those kind of jobs. Guilford County is taking a more diverse approach. Yes Greensboro built a research park but the city and county are also focusing on aviation, high tech manufacturing, logistics and distribution as well. Greensboro also has an insurance base with companies like Lincoln Financial. The diverse approach is whats going to put Guilford on a track for faster growth over the next 20 years.
OK, forget Forsyth/Winston-Salem because I don't want to get into the perpetual GSO vs. W-S pissing contest, which is where it looks you're itching to go. That wasn't even my main point. And it's funny you refer to Winston-Salem as a "johnny-come-lately" when it used to be the state's largest city at one point and its banking industry was at one time on par with Charlotte's, maybe even larger.
At any rate, a more diverse economic focus may cause Guilford to grow faster over the next 20 years, but it's not going to frickin' triple its growth rate in a mere seven years and have that rate sustained over the next decade as well. It's not happening, bruh. Just be happy with Greensboro's current status as a midsized metro with a healthy growth rate or go ahead and move to Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, DC, etc. and enjoy all that a truly large metro that's experiencing breakneck growth has to offer.
And maybe you're not aware, but many of the fastest-growing metros aren't those trying to be a "jack of all trades, master of none," but those that have mastered one thing very, very well and have allowed supporting industries to grow up around that--Charlotte and banking, the Triangle and biotech/high tech, Austin and high tech, Houston and energy, Atlanta and logistics/transportation, etc. It may very well be that by diffusing its efforts among several different sectors, Greensboro is also diluting its potential for higher growth in the future.
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When it comes to wide freeways, Guildford could certainly handle another 500k easily. As Charlotte and the Triangle fills up (and becomes more expensive), people will begin to take notice of what the Triad has to offer. I expect Guilford's growth rate to speed up over the next few decades. Let's not forget that Meck was NC's first 500k county back in 1990 (not that long ago at all). If Meck doubled in 23 years, I think Guilford could do it in 30-40 years (if not sooner).
