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Old 04-25-2017, 08:07 AM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
The latest published Census population for Greensboro is the 2015 number: 285,342
I think that updates for 2016 come next month. I am not sure where you are getting your number.
Greensboro's population has been jumping quite a bit over the last few years even with strict annexation laws. Once 2017 estimates are figured, Greensboro could be pushing 290, 000. Within a decade, maybe 5 years or so Greensboro will surpass the 300, 000
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Old 04-25-2017, 11:27 AM
 
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Originally Posted by HRVT View Post
That square mileage doesn't account for the water. Basically, Hampton Roads is relatively dense with suburbia in the areas that are on land. But really, Hampton Roads is a slightly bigger version of the Triad with the James River replacing Kernersville. of course, that gives the area less connectivity. But I do know the land square mileage is a big role. But as far as commuting is concerned, getting from Newport News to Virginia Beach is equivalent to driving from Burlington to Clemmons.
Why would it? People don't live on the water, outside of a few houseboats.
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Old 04-25-2017, 08:18 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
Why would it? People don't live on the water, outside of a few houseboats.
I didn't necessarily say it should, but including the water can give you an additional idea of how expansive an area is. The land square mileage of Hampton Roads isn't very much, but as one MSA, it is VERY disconnected. And I'm not sure how it makes sense to consider an area that divided to be one MSA other than some weird aversion to having a small amount of land in one MSA. The water certainly adds an interesting dynamic.
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Old 04-25-2017, 09:19 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
Greensboro's population has been jumping quite a bit over the last few years even with strict annexation laws. Once 2017 estimates are figured, Greensboro could be pushing 290, 000. Within a decade, maybe 5 years or so Greensboro will surpass the 300, 000
Although I believe that the intention to curtail annexation was intended as a mechanism to hurt cities, it's easy to make a case that it will make them stronger by forcing them to be creative and make their current land areas more financially productive. In order for cities to grow their tax bases, they are going to have to start focusing on more walkable, urban/urban type developments. The serendipity is that these types of environments are the sort of places that an increasing number of people want. It's a win-win.

Other than Charlotte, which is physically enormous, NC's other cities all have a workable but challenging amount of land area on which to grow. After decades of declining density metrics, NC's cities are reversing that trend with these new limits to annexation. Do I expect NC cities to get back to the 7,000+ ppl/m2 that they used to be decades ago? No. There's simply too much suburban development in our cities to get there. But, it's not unreasonable to expect that they can get back to 4,000 ppl/m2. That could leave NC with at least 3-4 more potential cities with populations north of 500,000. Raleigh will likely get there in a four years and it's not unreasonable to imagine Greensboro getting there in a few decades if it can successfully steer the economy in the right direction.
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Old 04-26-2017, 07:32 AM
 
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Originally Posted by HRVT View Post
I didn't necessarily say it should, but including the water can give you an additional idea of how expansive an area is. The land square mileage of Hampton Roads isn't very much, but as one MSA, it is VERY disconnected. And I'm not sure how it makes sense to consider an area that divided to be one MSA other than some weird aversion to having a small amount of land in one MSA. The water certainly adds an interesting dynamic.
That's because the presence of water geographically constrains the population and increases the density of the area and thus the interconnectivity. It makes perfect sense to me.

Also it should be realized that all MSAs include large amounts of predominantly rural areas that aren't "metropolitan" in any real sense. Because MSAs are county-based entities, you just need enough cross commuting coming from the main population centers for entire counties to become included. If there was an image of the urbanized area laid over the MSA, it would help to drive home the point visually.
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Old 04-26-2017, 07:16 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
That's because the presence of water geographically constrains the population and increases the density of the area and thus the interconnectivity. It makes perfect sense to me.

Also it should be realized that all MSAs include large amounts of predominantly rural areas that aren't "metropolitan" in any real sense. Because MSAs are county-based entities, you just need enough cross commuting coming from the main population centers for entire counties to become included. If there was an image of the urbanized area laid over the MSA, it would help to drive home the point visually.
I actually do understand the point. I understand there are rural areas within most MSAs. But I can tell you that there is very little cross commuting from people going from Newport News to Virginia Beach. The only major reason Hampton Roads is included is due to the military presence throughout that area along with the heavy tourism in VB and Williamsburg (more so the military).

Basically, I understand the concept, but I'm not so sure it applies in Hampton Roads. I lived there for decades. People north of the James River tend to stay there (commuters from north of the York tend to stay on the Peninsula and not stray further) while people south of the James River tend to stay there (in VB, Chesapeake, Portsmouth, and Norfolk). I'd want to see the actual data that makes Hampton Roads a combined MSA while Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Alamance County are three distinct MSAs.

Last edited by HRVT; 04-26-2017 at 07:56 PM..
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Old 04-27-2017, 12:16 AM
 
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Originally Posted by HRVT View Post
I actually do understand the point. I understand there are rural areas within most MSAs. But I can tell you that there is very little cross commuting from people going from Newport News to Virginia Beach. The only major reason Hampton Roads is included is due to the military presence throughout that area along with the heavy tourism in VB and Williamsburg (more so the military).

Basically, I understand the concept, but I'm not so sure it applies in Hampton Roads. I lived there for decades. People north of the James River tend to stay there (commuters from north of the York tend to stay on the Peninsula and not stray further) while people south of the James River tend to stay there (in VB, Chesapeake, Portsmouth, and Norfolk). I'd want to see the actual data that makes Hampton Roads a combined MSA while Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Alamance County are three distinct MSAs.
The commuting data is out there somewhere. I don't think I've accessed it since the Census redesigned their website.

Also another thing I didn't mention that probably also helps to account for HR's status as a singular MSA is VA's independent city set-up. Those cities, along with the region's counties, also constitute the basis for the MSA.
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Old 04-27-2017, 08:01 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
The commuting data is out there somewhere. I don't think I've accessed it since the Census redesigned their website.

Also another thing I didn't mention that probably also helps to account for HR's status as a singular MSA is VA's independent city set-up. Those cities, along with the region's counties, also constitute the basis for the MSA.
Actually, I think the case could be made that the independent city set up HURTS the case for calling HR one MSA. The arrangement there tends to lead to each city fighting only for itself. Just about everything Northern Hampton Roads has, southern Hampton Roads has too (and generally vice versa, though North Hampton Roads doesn't quite stack up to southside amenity wise). Of course, that generally leads to why folks on the Peninsula do tend to identify a bit with the Southside. But those on the southside tend to generally consider the Peninsula a different planet. Though perhaps maybe it is the need of some Hampton/NN folks to commute to the southside for a job since outside of the shipyard, there isn't much on the Peninsula. But nobody in Gloucester is commuting to VB. People in York County tend to go both ways (Richmond and Norfolk).

Ultimately, this has been real. But I'm also about done discussing Hampton Roads MSA on the Greensboro/Winston-Salem message board. I'd be somewhat interested to see the actual data. I do know that HR tries VERY hard to maintain the status of one MSA... even if the cities themselves don't work together one iota. In fact, about the only thing I have seen them work together for is keeping the status as one MSA (it is VERY beneficial for HR to be considered one moderately large MSA rather than being split into a small MSA and an average sized MSA).

Last edited by HRVT; 04-27-2017 at 08:16 AM..
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Old 04-27-2017, 10:40 AM
 
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Originally Posted by HRVT View Post
Actually, I think the case could be made that the independent city set up HURTS the case for calling HR one MSA. The arrangement there tends to lead to each city fighting only for itself. Just about everything Northern Hampton Roads has, southern Hampton Roads has too (and generally vice versa, though North Hampton Roads doesn't quite stack up to southside amenity wise). Of course, that generally leads to why folks on the Peninsula do tend to identify a bit with the Southside. But those on the southside tend to generally consider the Peninsula a different planet. Though perhaps maybe it is the need of some Hampton/NN folks to commute to the southside for a job since outside of the shipyard, there isn't much on the Peninsula. But nobody in Gloucester is commuting to VB. People in York County tend to go both ways (Richmond and Norfolk).

Ultimately, this has been real. But I'm also about done discussing Hampton Roads MSA on the Greensboro/Winston-Salem message board. I'd be somewhat interested to see the actual data. I do know that HR tries VERY hard to maintain the status of one MSA... even if the cities themselves don't work together one iota. In fact, about the only thing I have seen them work together for is keeping the status as one MSA (it is VERY beneficial for HR to be considered one moderately large MSA rather than being split into a small MSA and an average sized MSA).
MSAs are based on commuting patterns and commuting patterns alone; balkanization and regional infighting have little to do with it. I said that the independent city set-up actually helps explain HR as one MSA because those cities are essentially counties for this purpose, so you don't have to get enough folks in far-flung rural areas of a county commuting to one of the core jurisdictions of the MSA for inclusion in the MSA.

You can research the criteria for MSAs here (and you don't have to have everybody in the MSA commuting to the largest city within it to constitute a singular MSA) and commuter information can be found here.
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Old 04-27-2017, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
4,577 posts, read 4,393,634 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
MSAs are based on commuting patterns and commuting patterns alone; balkanization and regional infighting have little to do with it. I said that the independent city set-up actually helps explain HR as one MSA because those cities are essentially counties for this purpose, so you don't have to get enough folks in far-flung rural areas of a county commuting to one of the core jurisdictions of the MSA for inclusion in the MSA.

You can research the criteria for MSAs here (and you don't have to have everybody in the MSA commuting to the largest city within it to constitute a singular MSA) and commuter information can be found here.
So that means there must not be enough commuting between Greensboro amd Winston-Salem to warrant them being in the same metro.
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