U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > South Carolina > Greenville - Spartanburg area
 [Register]
Greenville - Spartanburg area Greenville - Spartanburg - Simpsonville - Greer - Easley - Taylors - Mauldin - Duncan
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 04-30-2014, 06:43 AM
 
Location: Upstate
5,489 posts, read 6,211,928 times
Reputation: 3813

Advertisements

Why is it so hard for meteorologists to forecast the weather in the Upstate correctly? I've lived here ten years and it's rare for them to get storm forecasting correct. They are pretty good on the sunny/partly cloudy days. Most people will say "it's the mountains". So if it is, then that should be taken into the factor of the forecast.

This current week is a good example. The meteorologists forecasted some nasty stuff starting late Monday...heavy rains, flash floods and possible tornadoes. Basically nothing happened in the Upstate on Tuesday. This morning it appeared that we got a little bit of rain last night. It does appear that we will get some T-storms later this morning, but only for a couple hours. By mid afternoon it should be gone.

I understand to err on the side of caution, but to freak people out is not good. Next time people may not listen and that's when the bad stuff will come. With all of the technology and the billions we spend each year on the National Weather Service, should we not expect better forecasting?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 04-30-2014, 07:26 AM
 
34 posts, read 61,385 times
Reputation: 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by USNRET04 View Post
Why is it so hard for meteorologists to forecast the weather in the Upstate correctly? I've lived here ten years and it's rare for them to get storm forecasting correct. They are pretty good on the sunny/partly cloudy days. Most people will say "it's the mountains". So if it is, then that should be taken into the factor of the forecast.

This current week is a good example. The meteorologists forecasted some nasty stuff starting late Monday...heavy rains, flash floods and possible tornadoes. Basically nothing happened in the Upstate on Tuesday. This morning it appeared that we got a little bit of rain last night. It does appear that we will get some T-storms later this morning, but only for a couple hours. By mid afternoon it should be gone.

I understand to err on the side of caution, but to freak people out is not good. Next time people may not listen and that's when the bad stuff will come. With all of the technology and the billions we spend each year on the National Weather Service, should we not expect better forecasting?
Fear sells. If they did not fear monger, people would not tune in. Par for the media course.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-30-2014, 07:43 AM
 
631 posts, read 877,388 times
Reputation: 346
Yeah this was a pretty big weather fail. My wife and I changed plans due to the forecast...oh well.

They did get the snow part right earlier this year though. Does that count? :P
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-30-2014, 07:43 AM
 
Location: Piedmont, SC
661 posts, read 1,161,436 times
Reputation: 311
Quote:
Originally Posted by USNRET04 View Post
Why is it so hard for meteorologists to forecast the weather in the Upstate correctly? I've lived here ten years and it's rare for them to get storm forecasting correct. They are pretty good on the sunny/partly cloudy days. Most people will say "it's the mountains". So if it is, then that should be taken into the factor of the forecast.

This current week is a good example. The meteorologists forecasted some nasty stuff starting late Monday...heavy rains, flash floods and possible tornadoes. Basically nothing happened in the Upstate on Tuesday. This morning it appeared that we got a little bit of rain last night. It does appear that we will get some T-storms later this morning, but only for a couple hours. By mid afternoon it should be gone.

I understand to err on the side of caution, but to freak people out is not good. Next time people may not listen and that's when the bad stuff will come. With all of the technology and the billions we spend each year on the National Weather Service, should we not expect better forecasting?
I've noticed the same thing. I've noticed that storms are very fragmented here, unlike in Illinois where I grew up. Back there, you can watch a wall of storms approach from a state away. Here, even if there is a big storm in a neighboring city, it will dissolve as it passes through. The central SC area gets a lot more big storms, it seems, just from my observation. Perhaps the mountains and present a forecasting challenge?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-30-2014, 07:54 AM
 
Location: near downtown Greenville, SC (viewing the sunset vicariously at the North Gulf Shore Beach Access)
1,838 posts, read 3,527,792 times
Reputation: 1548
This is one of the biggest weather busts of the year - I was expecting several inches (or more) rain and nasty storms - I think we still may receive a 1/2 inch of rain today/tonight.

However, the biggest weather bust of 2014 was the mid-Feb winter storm - we were supposed to get over a foot of snow - instead, I rec'd about more than 4 inches of sleet on top of 1-2 inches of snow - never seen so much sleet in my life.

Yes, I do think the topography here presents significant challenges for local meteorologists

Last edited by drfranklin; 04-30-2014 at 08:17 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-30-2014, 08:04 AM
 
Location: Greenville, SC
5,186 posts, read 7,500,599 times
Reputation: 2573
Just from my observation, it seems like we live in an area of the country where storms are breaking up and/or dying. When a storm is coming down on states further west, they seem stronger and more steady, but then begin to lose momentum along the way before they reach us.

I would think this makes them more difficult to predict, kind of like trying to hit a knuckleball versus a fast ball.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-30-2014, 08:18 AM
 
Location: Upstate
5,489 posts, read 6,211,928 times
Reputation: 3813
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art123 View Post
Just from my observation, it seems like we live in an area of the country where storms are breaking up and/or dying. When a storm is coming down on states further west, they seem stronger and more steady, but then begin to lose momentum along the way before they reach us.

I would think this makes them more difficult to predict, kind of like trying to hit a knuckleball versus a fast ball.
We certainly can't complain about these storms breaking up, that's for sure. Our hearts go out to the folks in all of the states that have been ravaged by the storms over the past few days. Looks like we are a tornado threat right now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-30-2014, 08:33 AM
 
Location: Upstate SC
276 posts, read 170,883 times
Reputation: 329
LATEST QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES GENERALLY 3 TO 5
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING OVER THE WESTERN
UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA. EVENTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS COULD ACTUALLY
EXCEED THIS GUIDANCE DEPENDING ON DEPTH...INTENSITY...AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

lol
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-30-2014, 08:56 AM
 
Location: home state of Myrtle Beach!
6,233 posts, read 18,123,468 times
Reputation: 3419
I believe WYFF's forecast before any other even if they aren't quite sure what that might be, as with the forecast for this week. I'm going to Hilton Head Friday; rain go away! lol

Quote:
Originally Posted by shamrocker View Post
I've noticed the same thing. I've noticed that storms are very fragmented here, unlike in Illinois where I grew up. Back there, you can watch a wall of storms approach from a state away. Here, even if there is a big storm in a neighboring city, it will dissolve as it passes through. The central SC area gets a lot more big storms, it seems, just from my observation. Perhaps the mountains and present a forecasting challenge?
We moved here from Chicago 11 years ago! You are right about the difference in the storms down here, but we do not miss the tornado watches or warnings. I've watched for 11 years now and the mountains surely do eat our rain chances. When we moved here they'd just come out of a drought and within a couple years were heading for one of the worst droughts on record for this area. I watched as all those storms approached from the west and disappeared as they landed over the mountains. I don't mind missing the severe stuff but hubby has an extensive garden here at home and rain is FREE water! We also like our pool, so heavy RAIN stay away.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bruce View Post
LATEST QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES GENERALLY 3 TO 5
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING OVER THE WESTERN
UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA. EVENTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS COULD ACTUALLY
EXCEED THIS GUIDANCE DEPENDING ON DEPTH...INTENSITY...AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

lol
Is this current? Doesn't seem possible but then I'm not a meterologist, just a weather nerd.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-30-2014, 09:26 AM
 
2,049 posts, read 1,830,621 times
Reputation: 1504
Quote:
Originally Posted by myrc60 View Post
Is this current? Doesn't seem possible but then I'm not a meterologist, just a weather nerd.
No, the current QPF shows 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Looking at the radar and the general movement of the storm I'd be really surprised if we get that much rain. Some of the earlier QPFs showed 5+ inches for the western NC mountains. This spring has been a bad one for the models, storms have frequently gone south and east of the predicted path, drenching Columbia and leaving us dry. My allergies could really use the air scrubbing action of a good downpour.

WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts - Day 1
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:



Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > South Carolina > Greenville - Spartanburg area
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top