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China did not even ground flights out of their country. They exported this virus to the rest of the world. That was a big violation of the social distancing principle.
I'm not sure why you say Italians eat healthier. How could you know this. They currently have significantly more deaths from this virus than the US despite a smaller population.
I'm sure he was focusing on the "social distancing" that China practiced.
I was. Wuhan was the epicenter in China. China completely locked down Wuhan and put broad restrictions on other cities and now they're slowly getting back to normal life. The virus was literally being starved in Wuhan.
NYC and Seattle are the US's Wuhan and haven't done that. You can go drive to NYC right now if you want to, or fly into JFK. New Yorkers can leave and are free to go anywhere else in the country. I had a friend in Charleston who flew to Seattle for whatever reason...her caption, "catch flights, not corona." Couldn't do that in Wuhan.
Italy suspended flights to China on January 31st, the same day Trump announced his "ban." But it was not a "ban" as you could still fly to and from China on February 11th. They were "restrictions" that pertained to certain people coming from China, it didn't apply to America as a whole. You and I could've flown to China on February 9th if we wanted too. And the problem for the western world was thinking it was all China. You could halt travel to China, didn't mean sick people from South Korea, Japan, Germany, Iran, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, etc etc couldn't get through, because they could and did. Delta initially saw it and suspended flights to Seoul.
I don't see how this isn't a broken record at this point, but the US is at least 10-14 days behind Italy and Europe on the timeline, and we are trending worse. The math is right there. Russia, UK, and most of Europe is under lockdown, New Zealand just started one, India is under a 21 day one, South Africa is starting a 21 day one tomorrow, Kuwait for 2 weeks, Jordan, Argentina, Malaysia, Kenya, North Korea...Canada is next. The US has not done this and apparently probably wont.
Italy went into national lockdown on March 9th. So theoretically it would've been smart for the US to do something similar last week and we haven't, and likely aren't going to. Most experts have said the US will be one of the hardest hit in the developed world, if not the hardest hit and that and how our hospitals are about to be overloaded, is why. People still aren't grasping exponential and timeline growth. It really hit China in January, hit South Korea in February, really hit Italy in March, will really hit us in April. Atlanta is no NYC and their ICU's are already at capacity. Louisiana predicts they reach capacity and run out of ventilators next week and are prepping putting people in dorms. Seattle is a mess, NY is struggling, it's doubling every 3 days. April is the most crucial month because that's when the healthcare system may overload.
South Carolina + Florida + Georgia + North Carolina = 48 million people. South Korea = 51 million.
SC + FL + GA + NC has done 32K tests total since testing begin in February. SK has done 36K tests in 3 days. That is the difference and why I said we wont be South Korea, NDL. The easiest and fastest way for us to get back to normal life is to do universal testing, so we can get the sick isolated quickly. We aren't. Had we did it at the start we could've prevented having to shut everything down. Until the testing climbs we have to keep doing this. No way we open anything in 2 weeks, the country will look very different then than it does now, same way we look much different now than 2 weeks ago. The social distancing is good, and it will help, but like Italy, the US was late to the game.
If any country has done flattening the curve right, it's been South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. SK is where we got the drive thru testing idea from. But no country is perfect or in the clear. It's still in China, still in SK etc, and countless Americans have it and we cant tell.
Eating healthier and exercising is important, but the easiest way to stay safe is simply isolate, because you can still show no or mild symptoms. Olympic athletes have still gotten it. Being very healthy doesn't prevent you from getting it. It's the same idea as STDs. All this makes it extremely interesting how the Upstate fares. Frontier at GSP has already been a casualty, for now at least.
Here's the death rate for countries with more than 5000 cases of the virus.
The death rate for the US is 1.23%. Italy's death rate is 9.51%. South Korea which has been presented as the gold standard for fighting this virus is higher than the US at 1.24% which is surprising if they have been using the malaria drug.
I think the number for every country is more likely to go down than up with the malaria drug option and possisbily other options on the way coupled with social distancing and warmer weather on the way.
I don't think the China number is accurate. I think it is much higher, around 10 percent like Italy or more.
A huge percentage of the US deaths are in New York. If we could just get the virus in New York under control that would go a long way of pushing down the national number.
The US as of March 23rd had 0.087% of the number of covid deaths in Italy.
SC as of March 23rd had 0.0011% of the number of covid deaths in Italy.
Last edited by ClemVegas; 03-25-2020 at 04:35 PM..
I'm not sure why you say Italians eat healthier. How could you know this. They currently have significantly more deaths from this virus than the US despite a smaller population.
I am of Italian descent on both sides, and my Grandmother came from Italy.
Two of my closest friends are Italian citizens, as are members of their immediate family.
My Brother teaches Italian and travels to Italy often.
The Italian population is a lot older than her US counterpart; that's why more people in Italy are dying.
It is my understanding there is more interaction b/t young and old in Italy than most countries. A good thing kind of became a bad thing.
I think the majority of people who have died from this virus were likely to die of something soon due to a deficient immune system. That's the argument against shutting down the economy and putting the country into a great depression.
There's still counties in SC that don't have a single case so a one size fits all national lockdown doesn't seem proportional. We need to have strict quarantines on people in the hot spot areas like New York and Kershaw County.
I don't see how this isn't a broken record at this point
It is, but not due to any of the content in your post, as you've well stated what is otherwise obvious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jandrew5
South Carolina + Florida + Georgia + North Carolina = 48 million people. South Korea = 51 million. SC + FL + GA + NC has done 32K tests total since testing begin in February. SK has done 36K tests in 3 days. That is the difference and why I said we wont be South Korea, NDL. The easiest and fastest way for us to get back to normal life is to do universal testing, so we can get the sick isolated quickly. We aren't. Had we did it at the start we could've prevented having to shut everything down. Until the testing climbs we have to keep doing this. No way we open anything in 2 weeks, the country will look very different then than it does now, same way we look much different now than 2 weeks ago. The social distancing is good, and it will help, but like Italy, the US was late to the game.
That's an interesting statistic. Things don't look promising.
***
I would not want to be in the President's shoes right now; if he is cautious to the extent that he stifles the disease, the economy will take a hit, and he will be vilified.
If, on the other hand, he lets things flow freely, the disease will do likewise, and he will be vilified.
I suppose the President's Trump card, (pun intended), might be to bolster his position of the need for secure borders and increased domestic production.
Excellent post, Jandrew5. I don't understand why there isn't more testing. Wrecking the US economy is certainly more expensive than doing large-scale testing.
'The United States has now conducted more coronavirus tests in the past eight days than South Korea did in eight weeks, according to White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx.'
I think the testing talking point is about to get retired like the other one that was pushed on here last week.
Excellent post, Jandrew5. I don't understand why there isn't more testing. Wrecking the US economy is certainly more expensive than doing large-scale testing.
I think the American public needs to take a good look at how we let our former representatives off shore certain industries.
Excellent post, Jandrew5. I don't understand why there isn't more testing. Wrecking the US economy is certainly more expensive than doing large-scale testing.
Well he said during the press briefing earlier that he thinks it's not necessary. You could get into why, but it doesn't matter at this point. It's definitely hurting us, nationally and locally. The only reason we're social distancing is because we still can't tell who and who doesn't have it. If we test everyone, we could easily find that out, isolate, and get back to watching basketball, eating out, working, and running around. Imagine if everyone at BMW got tested, you could get those 10 people who tested positive, leave them at home quarantined, and keep the plant open.
Testing is now ramping up nationwide because a lot of beaurocracy has been taken out, but because of the earlier lack of testing, and still no widespread methods, you really cant pay all your attention at the numbers themselves, but rather how fast theyre growing, and how many test come back positive and negative. Absolutely no way there's only 9 in Spartanburg, which just got updated from 4, or 2 in Greenwood. Greenville just went from 39 to 50, which still sounds low. So really it's about the growth and the assumption that it's everywhere. Saying "there's only 9 in Spartanburg, I'm fineeeee" isnt a great mindset. NY has exploded, but they're testing like wildfire up there.
State ---- Tests Done ----- Positive ---- Deaths
SC ----- 2500 ---- 342 ---- 7 --- - not too great
FL ---- 16,000 ---- 1500 ---- 20 --- - not great either
GA ---- 5,500 ---- 1,000 ---- 38 --- - bad
NC ---- 8,000 ---- 398 ---- 2 --- - pretty good
This is already outdated by the way as SC is now up to 424. Florida and Georgia are exploding in cases and Georgia is really exploding in deaths. SC is not trending good, but isn't dire yet. There's some SC counties without a confirmed case yet, but I honestly feel like it's in all 46 counties at this point, we just wont know yet.
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