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Old 07-11-2014, 04:02 AM
 
Location: WI
3,805 posts, read 8,506,316 times
Reputation: 2219

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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper 88 View Post
Guess what the solution to all this madness is??????

Just quit buying it from the people who are buying and re selling for 3, 4, or even 5x the price. Pretty simple solution.
^^^ This.


I wont spend time driving from store to store hunting for ammo, and i've never bought from anyone charging above normal retail. I dont have shelves full of the stuff either; I buy what i need to hit the range and have some fun, that's it. In fact i've even passed on ammo that was not the type my guns "prefer", absolutely no need to buy something i will not shoot (ie remington) and i wont resell and become part of what i believe to be the problem i've complained about lol.
Now what i call normal retail, is what i've found to be normal retail in the past 1.5 years i've been shooting. Could be $25 for a box of Fed 525ct, or maybe $7.99 for 100 mini mags. So that 5-8 cents per round in my shooting lifetime is reasonable to me. Perhaps those who have been shooting for years are used to .22 being much cheaper then that and really have a gripe, but i can live with those prices and buy from retailers that charge them.
Those who hoard for their "end of the world zombie apocalypse bartering chip" needs and those who buy and resell .22 ammo like it was the modern version of the beanie baby craze, they can do what they want they just wont have my support.
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Old 07-11-2014, 04:53 AM
 
Location: WI
3,805 posts, read 8,506,316 times
Reputation: 2219
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxLMG View Post

Remington's 9mm isn't as bad. Their .22 stuff is just terrible though.
i've actually noticed this as well; i do just fine with the umc ammo in my S&W 9c, good price and runs well. But each time i tried their .22 stuff in my old colt and new buckmark, enough issues to have me avoid it moving forward. I know .22's can be finicky but one would think a supplier's ammo would be of similar quality across the board.
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Old 07-11-2014, 04:55 AM
 
16,438 posts, read 18,510,024 times
Reputation: 9490
There are many preppers that believe .22LR will be good barter material when TSHTF. They're probably right.
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Old 07-11-2014, 04:58 AM
Status: "Rocktober...well that was fast. :-(" (set 18 days ago)
 
Location: Fredericksburg, VA
10,285 posts, read 10,442,913 times
Reputation: 13239
Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
Some retailers do. Wal-Mart is an example of one that doesn't, and is the primary source for the ammo flippers.
Walmart is an interesting example because of the scope of their merchandise. They are able to sacrifice profit margin on some items because they make up for it in other sales. They are by no means a "specialty shop." With that said, they have 5.56 and other cartridges at Walmart whose prices are within a dollar of other retailers like Gander Mountain or even some of the online sources I've used like PSA or Midway USA. I've never actually found any .22 at Walmart recently so I cannot definitely claim their pricing is consistent with other sources, but considering all the other ammo is, I think it's a claim I make with a reasonable amount of certainty.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
You have described sellers in the secondary market. That's the supply side, not the demand side. The demand is real, not artificial.
"Artificial demand" does not mean "demand is not real." It's a condition where a product becomes the source of demand instead of being a response to demand. You may go to your grave believing there is no such thing as "artificial demand" but it is a valid economic concept and you saying "no such thing" does nothing to change that in the real world. In this case there is an artificial demand because real demand is met by a first-line retailer. Artificial demand is created when the supply that meets that initial demand is removed from the market at a price close to equilibrium and re-entered into a secondary market where previously no demand existed because there was a supply offered on the first-line market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
The flippers are not able to pilfer the "regular market." They are able to engage in arbitrage ONLY because a few sources, like Wal-Mart, are selling below equilibrium. If Wal-Mart charged the market price, they wouldn't sell out of .22 ammo almost immediately upon putting it on the shelves.
I am not going to argue economic semantics with you. I think we did that once before over "gouging" and it got a thread closed. Just because a term may not be an accepted economic term does not mean the concept or practice does not exist in daily economic activity. Further, you seem highly critical of Walmart, one of capitalism's great success stories , and claim they are selling below equilibrium. The truth is right now the market is not in equilibrium and it is not Walmart or any other seller's fault. Right now it is simply the case that demand is higher than supply can meet. Everywhere you find a box of .22 ammo of reasonable quality it will be gone within a day. The immense amount of popularity of firearms that shoot .22 makes this the single most common cartridge in the world. Even without flippers pilfering the market this would likely be the case.

I am guessing we will see a return to shelves within a year. I can only base this off the pattern I saw for other cartridges. I don't think there is some conspiracy to dry up supply, because if this were the case handgun ammo and "assault rifle" ammo would likely be the first targeted, followed by other common rifle calibers. I think it is simply a matter of ammo suppliers, whose resources are constrained, focussing every ounce of lead, brass, and powder at their disposal into product that will reap a higher profit. When they've reached levels closer to equilibrium (and I believe the markets are pretty darn close) we will probably start seeing copious amounts of .22 again.
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Old 07-11-2014, 05:00 AM
 
Location: WI
3,805 posts, read 8,506,316 times
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and for those in need, a quick check at a couple sites, Cabelas (remington) and PSA (couple options) does have some available in the .08-.10 area + ship:


Remington® .22 LR Rimfire Ammunition : Cabela's


.22 Long Rifle - Rimfire Ammunition - Ammunition
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Old 07-11-2014, 05:00 AM
 
16,438 posts, read 18,510,024 times
Reputation: 9490
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxLMG View Post
I'll just throw out my guess here and say that I think it could be due to an artifical shortage as well. Ammo isn't a high tech product, and if they wanted to crank it out hard and cheap, that's what China does very well and is more than willing to do.

.
The same equipment used to make primers makes 22 cases, so manufacturers want primers for their high dollar .380 ammo first, then .22 after the popular bigger calibers production gets caught up to demand.
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Old 07-11-2014, 07:49 AM
 
5,221 posts, read 2,375,434 times
Reputation: 5111
Quote:
Originally Posted by iknowftbll View Post
Walmart is an interesting example because of the scope of their merchandise. They are able to sacrifice profit margin on some items because they make up for it in other sales. They are by no means a "specialty shop." With that said, they have 5.56 and other cartridges at Walmart whose prices are within a dollar of other retailers like Gander Mountain or even some of the online sources I've used like PSA or Midway USA. I've never actually found any .22 at Walmart recently so I cannot definitely claim their pricing is consistent with other sources, but considering all the other ammo is, I think it's a claim I make with a reasonable amount of certainty.
Your contention is that since Wal-Mart sells other ammo at a price consistent with other retailers, they must be doing the same thing with .22? And you make that claim, even though you haven't actually seen that to be the case? Seriously? Wal-Mart in fact prices their .22 ammo below current equilibrium. If they didn't, it would be impossible for the flippers to engage in arbitrage. This concept is so simple, I find it hard to believe that you don't get it.

.22 ammo is very available in the $40-50/500 price range, both online, and in brick and mortar stores. How do you explain that availability, along with the fact that Wal-Mart sells out of .22 nearly instantaneously upon restocking? How would the flippers make money if Wal-Mart was charging $40-50/500 (the current market price)?

Quote:
"Artificial demand" does not mean "demand is not real." It's a condition where a product becomes the source of demand instead of being a response to demand. You may go to your grave believing there is no such thing as "artificial demand" but it is a valid economic concept and you saying "no such thing" does nothing to change that in the real world. In this case there is an artificial demand because real demand is met by a first-line retailer.
We probably aren't going to agree, so I won't belabor the point. However, your definition that follows seems problematic.

Quote:
Artificial demand is created when the supply that meets that initial demand is removed from the market at a price close to equilibrium and re-entered into a secondary market where previously no demand existed because there was a supply offered on the first-line market.
Supply isn't being removed from the market at a price close to equilibrium. The situation ONLY exists because some retailers (notably Wal-Mart) are selling at a price significantly BELOW equilibrium.

If Wal-Mart was selling ammo at the current equilibrium price of $40-50/500, explain to us how the flippers would make any money, and how "artificial demand" would be created.

Quote:
I am not going to argue economic semantics with you. I think we did that once before over "gouging" and it got a thread closed. Just because a term may not be an accepted economic term does not mean the concept or practice does not exist in daily economic activity. Further, you seem highly critical of Walmart, one of capitalism's great success stories , and claim they are selling below equilibrium. The truth is right now the market is not in equilibrium and it is not Walmart or any other seller's fault. Right now it is simply the case that demand is higher than supply can meet. Everywhere you find a box of .22 ammo of reasonable quality it will be gone within a day. The immense amount of popularity of firearms that shoot .22 makes this the single most common cartridge in the world. Even without flippers pilfering the market this would likely be the case.
I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion, as I haven't said anything of the sort. I'm not critical of Wal-Mart at all. I have simply explained what has been happening.

They are selling below equilibrium. If they aren't, explain how the current situation would continue if Wal-Mart raised their prices on .22 ammo to a level consistent with other retailers?

Not when it's being sold for current market price. Only when it is being sold below the current market price. There is plenty of .22 ammo available. Just not at the price that Wal-Mart is charging.

Quote:
I am guessing we will see a return to shelves within a year. I can only base this off the pattern I saw for other cartridges. I don't think there is some conspiracy to dry up supply, because if this were the case handgun ammo and "assault rifle" ammo would likely be the first targeted, followed by other common rifle calibers. I think it is simply a matter of ammo suppliers, whose resources are constrained, focussing every ounce of lead, brass, and powder at their disposal into product that will reap a higher profit. When they've reached levels closer to equilibrium (and I believe the markets are pretty darn close) we will probably start seeing copious amounts of .22 again.
I agree 100% that there is no conspiracy.
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Old 07-11-2014, 09:46 AM
Status: "Rocktober...well that was fast. :-(" (set 18 days ago)
 
Location: Fredericksburg, VA
10,285 posts, read 10,442,913 times
Reputation: 13239
Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
Your contention is that since Wal-Mart sells other ammo at a price consistent with other retailers, they must be doing the same thing with .22? And you make that claim, even though you haven't actually seen that to be the case? Seriously? Wal-Mart in fact prices their .22 ammo below current equilibrium. If they didn't, it would be impossible for the flippers to engage in arbitrage. This concept is so simple, I find it hard to believe that you don't get it.
Why do you assume I don't "get it?" Why do you assume since I object to "flipping" as a practice I "hate capitalism?" The latter is quite a fallacy, logically speaking. The former is not only a logical fallacy, but also a possible symptom of narcism. I "get it." But I (brace yourself) disagree. Please don't assume that the only reason someone disagrees with you is because he doesn't "get it." Try to remember that not everyone's scope of reason and understanding is not as limited as your own.

Regarding walmart pricing of .22, I made a logical hypothesis based on the pattern at which they price other cartridges. Unlike your logical fallacies, my hypothesis was a logical "next step" from the information available. But if it makes you feel better, I contacted a friend of mine who HAS bought .22 at Walmart. I hate to break the news to you, but I'm right. Their .22 products are priced consistently with other retailers, at least in the area of the country where I live.

So that raises the question, what is equilibrium. You seem to take a stab at it here:

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
.22 ammo is very available in the $40-50/500 price range, both online, and in brick and mortar stores. How do you explain that availability, along with the fact that Wal-Mart sells out of .22 nearly instantaneously upon restocking? How would the flippers make money if Wal-Mart was charging $40-50/500 (the current market price)?
Based on this I gather you believe that $40-50 per 500 rounds is an appropriate equilibrium price. My question is what makes you right and the world's largest retailer and several of their competitors wrong? And on what are you basing your claim that flippers wouldn't be able to do what they do if retailers were selling at this price? I ask because it is not consistent with what was happening pre-Sandy Hook. Even before the ammo shortage I remember finding people selling online or at gun shows for prices above what retailers were offering. They wouldn't have been doing it if nobody was buying. Fast forward to today: there is always someone trying to sell a product at a price above market equilibrium. Some are even successful doing it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
We probably aren't going to agree, so I won't belabor the point. However, your definition that follows seems problematic.
At least I have a definition. The only thing problematic to you is it debunks your position and claim that "artificial demand" does not exist.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
Supply isn't being removed from the market at a price close to equilibrium. The situation ONLY exists because some retailers (notably Wal-Mart) are selling at a price significantly BELOW equilibrium.
See above. You don't have enough credibility to be the one who decides what equilibrium price is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
If Wal-Mart was selling ammo at the current equilibrium price of $40-50/500, explain to us how the flippers would make any money, and how "artificial demand" would be created.
It is really quite simple. $40-50 is twice what I paid the last few times I bought a box of Federal Bulk .22lr (525 rounds). This is an insanely popular product even without an ammo shortage because of the sheer volume of people who own and shoot arms chambered in .22lr. If equilibrium were $50 and Walmart has 10 boxes on the shelf, and someone buys all 10 he can create an artificial demand by repricing above equilibrium. His potential buys drops off, but if he is only trying to move 10 boxes he only needs as many as 10 buyers. As many .22lr shooters as there are, there will almost always be someone willing to pay above equilibrium price. The demand is artificial because it is not under normal market conditions. This is exactly what is happening now, the only thing different is the numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
They are selling below equilibrium. If they aren't, explain how the current situation would continue if Wal-Mart raised their prices on .22 ammo to a level consistent with other retailers?
Except their prices ARE consistent with other retailers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
Not when it's being sold for current market price. Only when it is being sold below the current market price. There is plenty of .22 ammo available. Just not at the price that Wal-Mart is charging.
Have you considered that following a pretty significant run on ammo sales the problem is simply suppliers still trying to get caught up on their product lines. Have you considered the possibility you are wrong about pricing, and maybe the issue actually IS product availability? I have offered this explanation a few times now, as have a few other posters. It has merit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
I agree 100% that there is no conspiracy.
Well at least we have that.
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Old 07-11-2014, 10:26 AM
 
Location: San Diego
32,798 posts, read 30,025,534 times
Reputation: 17687
It's not going to get any better anytime soon. At the State level they keep introducing new bills and many of them get passed. As news of each bills comes up it renders panic. As each date of implementation nears it starts another panic driven buy out. We have a lead ammo ban looming so that should keep this run on .22 ammo going for quite some time.
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Old 07-11-2014, 11:38 AM
 
5,221 posts, read 2,375,434 times
Reputation: 5111
Quote:
Originally Posted by iknowftbll View Post
Why do you assume I don't "get it?"
The following is what you don't get:

Quote:
Wal-Mart in fact prices their .22 ammo below current equilibrium. If they didn't, it would be impossible for the flippers to engage in arbitrage.
And it's not an assumption on my part. It is abundantly clear based on what you have posted.

If the market price for a good is $10, and everyone is selling it for $10, tell us all about how the "flippers" will work that market to their advantage.

Quote:
Why do you assume since I object to "flipping" as a practice I "hate capitalism?" The latter is quite a fallacy, logically speaking. The former is not only a logical fallacy, but also a possible symptom of narcism.
Buying low and selling high is a fundamental aspect of capitalism. You have stated that you object to it in this context, so perhaps I should have asked, "why do you object to capitalism?"

Narcism? ROTFLMAO!

Quote:
I "get it." But I (brace yourself) disagree. Please don't assume that the only reason someone disagrees with you is because he doesn't "get it." Try to remember that not everyone's scope of reason and understanding is not as limited as your own.
Nice try, but it is pretty obvious who's understanding is limited.

Quote:
Regarding walmart pricing of .22, I made a logical hypothesis based on the pattern at which they price other cartridges.
Yes, it was a logical hypothesis. But it's wrong.

Quote:
Unlike your logical fallacies, my hypothesis was a logical "next step" from the information available.
No logical fallacies from me so far, but try again if it makes you feel better.

Quote:
But if it makes you feel better, I contacted a friend of mine who HAS bought .22 at Walmart. I hate to break the news to you, but I'm right. Their .22 products are priced consistently with other retailers, at least in the area of the country where I live.
I can't really speak to that as I don't live in the same part of the country. All I can say is that it isn't what I have seen at a number of Wal-Mart locations in various parts of the country.

I have a challenge for you. Go down to your local Wal-Mart, and check out the ammo case. They should have plenty of empty spaces where the .22 ammo goes, but there should also be price stickers on the front of the shelves for that ammo. Check out what the prices are, and report back. I'll do the same, and we can compare.

Quote:
Based on this I gather you believe that $40-50 per 500 rounds is an appropriate equilibrium price. My question is what makes you right and the world's largest retailer and several of their competitors wrong?
"Appropriate" doesn't really have any place in a discussion of equilibrium price. Equilibrium price of gasoline is approx. $3.60/gallon. Is it "appropriate"? It doesn't matter as the market doesn't care. That you don't seem to understand this makes it pretty apparent that you lack sufficient understanding of economics to be able to engage in a reasonable discussion on this topic.

Quote:
And on what are you basing your claim that flippers wouldn't be able to do what they do if retailers were selling at this price? I ask because it is not consistent with what was happening pre-Sandy Hook. Even before the ammo shortage I remember finding people selling online or at gun shows for prices above what retailers were offering. They wouldn't have been doing it if nobody was buying. Fast forward to today: there is always someone trying to sell a product at a price above market equilibrium. Some are even successful doing it.
And more of your post that indicates a lack of understanding of economics.

Can people sell above equilibrium? Of course. But only at the margins. The only people that are buying ammo at prices above equilibrium are the desperate or the uninformed. This is the case now as was the case before Sandy Hook, and it has always been the case.

Quote:
At least I have a definition. The only thing problematic to you is it debunks your position and claim that "artificial demand" does not exist.
I have had fairly extensive training in economics, but apparently, my education is lacking. Can you direct me to some research on "artificial demand" that I could study up on?

Quote:
See above. You don't have enough credibility to be the one who decides what equilibrium price is.
I don't decide it, the market does. (There is your lack of econ. knowledge speaking again)

Quote:
It is really quite simple. $40-50 is twice what I paid the last few times I bought a box of Federal Bulk .22lr (525 rounds). This is an insanely popular product even without an ammo shortage because of the sheer volume of people who own and shoot arms chambered in .22lr. If equilibrium were $50 and Walmart has 10 boxes on the shelf, and someone buys all 10 he can create an artificial demand by repricing above equilibrium. His potential buys drops off, but if he is only trying to move 10 boxes he only needs as many as 10 buyers. As many .22lr shooters as there are, there will almost always be someone willing to pay above equilibrium price. The demand is artificial because it is not under normal market conditions. This is exactly what is happening now, the only thing different is the numbers.
If this is a sound strategy, and Wal-Mart is in fact selling .22 ammo for the current equilibrium price as you claim, please explain why the flippers aren't doing the exact same thing with 12 ga. shotgun ammo or 5.56 ammo from Wal-Mart. Why are those types of ammo nearly always in stock, at market competitive prices?

Quote:
Except their prices ARE consistent with other retailers.
See the challenge above.
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