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Old 11-22-2014, 06:30 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper 88 View Post
If I had to guess, i'd say it's because .22 is cheap, it's available practically anywhere, it's easy to store a lot of rounds in a smaller space, and it's versitile, as it can be shot in a number of different firearms and has numerous applications. Therefore I'd say that's why it has the highest demand in one of these panic periods. Always the first to go, and the last to come back. It's a round that has a lot more going for it than other rounds, such as the 30-30 you mentioned.
Nope. The reason is that there is NO WAY to currently engage in arbitrage with the prices of that ammo like you can sometimes do with .22 ammo. Average price of 500/550 round pack of .22 ammo is $50 across the country. When someone can find one at Wal-Mart for $23.99, it is easy to buy and re-sell it for $50. When the average price of a 25 round box of field load 12 gauge shells is $5/box, and EVERYONE is selling it for $5/box, no arbitrage is possible.

Quote:
You aren't honestly implying that this shortage is just a natural fluctuation brought on by normal conditions are you? LOL, if that's the case then why did it just happen to come about after one of the biggest pushes for firearms regulation in recent history?
No, I'm not implying that at all. But people get all wound up over "normal" vs. "abnormal" market conditions. Truth is, they are just market conditions. Demand has increased, and supply has had a hard time catching up. As long as the equilibrium price is approx. $50, and a few retailers sell some ammo at a price significantly below equilibrium, the current situation will continue.
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Old 11-22-2014, 08:42 PM
 
Location: WI
3,807 posts, read 8,525,208 times
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I have heard from others in person as well as on forums that one reason for the .22 ammo crunch was preppers thought to grab what they could for future use (hunting, bartering, etc) when the end hits. This panic brought on by the events the past few years. I won't validate that theory nor dispute it, just an excuse that I have come across.
As for the market place, maybe I am in the minority but seems if no one buys at the high cost then said cost will come back down. By principle i refuse to pay above what now is considered normal retail in most chains. If a brick of Fed ammo is say 20 bucks, i will wait til it is available at that cost and skip when i see it higher (ie Gander shows 20 and maybe another site shows 40). Again only my opinion.

Back on track, as volatile as this ammo issue is across the states, it is going to be tough for the OP to get the answer they were maybe hoping for, instead many will think as a buyer and want the goods at what they feel is a legit cost. I'd think if OP can get their investment back and buyer is satisfied then everyone walks away happy this time.
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Old 11-22-2014, 08:52 PM
 
Location: Ohio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
Nope. The reason is that there is NO WAY to currently engage in arbitrage with the prices of that ammo
Right, because there isn't as big of a shortage. You can still buy 30-30 ammo almost anywhere, for the same prices you could pre-Sandy Hook. So, your question is, why is that the case for rounds like the 30-30 and shot shells, but not .22lr? Well to know the answer to that, you'd have to know why people buy .22 up the way they do in a frenzy, and why they don't buy 30-30 in the same way. I already took a guess at this in my last post. Cheap, easy to store, etc. If 30-30 had the same demand as .22lr, we'd be seeing shortages and inflated prices on it, to.
Quote:
When someone can find one at Wal-Mart for $23.99, it is easy to buy and re-sell it for $50.
The fact that Wal-Mart and other big chains can still buy and sell bricks of .22 for 23.99 should tell you that the $50 bricks are an instance of false inflation. 23.99 is the real market value for the product. Yeah I know, I've heard you say there's no such thing as false inflation before, so call it whatever you want. You know what I'm getting at.

However, as long as ignoramusus continue to pay $50 a brick at the small mom pop shops, they'll certainly continue to sell it at that inflated price, and why wouldn't they?
Quote:
Demand has increased, and supply has had a hard time catching up. As long as the equilibrium price is approx. $50, and a few retailers sell some ammo at a price significantly below equilibrium, the current situation will continue.
I think we're essentially saying the same thing. To find out why there's so much added demand for .22, you'd have to ask the people who are buying it, why they are buying it. I've already ventured a guess above, and in my last post. All this added demand is what led to the shortage, and the shortage is what's led to the inflated prices, and so on.

This is what I've been saying all along.

Last edited by WhipperSnapper 88; 11-22-2014 at 09:11 PM..
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Old 11-22-2014, 09:00 PM
 
Location: Spots Wyoming
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swagger View Post
You do understand that you're in a location where these sorts of things are severely muted, right? The entire state of Wyoming has fewer people than reside in my ZIP code (probably a slight exaggeration, but you get the idea).

I'm not knocking Wyoming - I want to retire there, and if it were in the central time zone, I'd be making Sheridan my home next year. But it is what it is - you have so few people competing for the same products that the demand isn't the same as it is in a big city. THAT is why you're seeing "normal" prices for ammo while most of the rest of the country is seeing "inflated" prices, which aren't actually inflated if they're the going rate - it's actually "normal," for that location.
Geese, what has that for to do with anything? The op asked how much .22lr was worth. I posted the price it is here and every Tom, Dick and Harry wants to argue with me. As I see it, there is a whole bunch of people off topic and not wanting to answer the op.
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Old 11-22-2014, 09:21 PM
 
Location: Ohio
13,951 posts, read 10,329,998 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElkHunter View Post
Geese, what has that for to do with anything? The op asked how much .22lr was worth. I posted the price it is here and every Tom, Dick and Harry wants to argue with me. As I see it, there is a whole bunch of people off topic and not wanting to answer the op.
My answer to the OP:

$18-$25 per 500..... Market value.

I wouldn't pay a penny more than that as a buyer, and if I ain't buy'n, you ain't sell'n. which is why the buyers POV is more important to you than the sellers.
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Old 11-22-2014, 11:22 PM
 
5,242 posts, read 2,389,930 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper 88 View Post
Right, because there isn't as big of a shortage. You can still buy 30-30 ammo almost anywhere, for the same prices you could pre-Sandy Hook.
The ability to arbitrage the price of ammo is only tangentially related to shortage. If everyone is selling at equilibrium price, it doesn't matter if there is a shortage or not, no arbitrage is possible.

Quote:
So, your question is, why is that the case for rounds like the 30-30 and shot shells, but not .22lr?
No, that wasn't my question at all. You made the following claim:

Quote:
Pretty sweet deal for someone when they can capitalize on poor market conditions that they themselves created.
My question was, if these market conditions were created by those that are re-selling .22 ammo, why can't they do the same thing with other types of ammo? And the answer is simple. Because no matter what the demand is, everyone is selling 12ga and .30-30 ammo for the same price. There is no opportunity to buy low and sell high.

Quote:
Well to know the answer to that, you'd have to know why people buy .22 up the way they do in a frenzy, and why they don't buy 30-30 in the same way. I already took a guess at this in my last post. Cheap, easy to store, etc. If 30-30 had the same demand as .22lr, we'd be seeing shortages and inflated prices on it, to.
Again, it has almost nothing to do with the demand. The only reason the .22 re-sellers can do what they do is because a few sellers sell small quantities below equilibrium price.

Quote:
The fact that Wal-Mart and other big chains can still buy and sell bricks of .22 for 23.99 should tell you that the $50 bricks are an instance of false inflation. 23.99 is the real market value for the product. Yeah I know, I've heard you say there's no such thing as false inflation before, so call it whatever you want. You know what I'm getting at.
When people talk about market value, whether they understand it or not, they are really talking about a market equilibrium price. NOT the lowest price that can occasion be found. If $23.99 were the equilibrium price, there would be sufficient quantity at that price for all who wish to buy at that price. Unfortunately, that isn't the case.

Quote:
However, as long as ignoramusus continue to pay $50 a brick at the small mom pop shops, they'll certainly continue to sell it at that inflated price, and why wouldn't they?
That is the price almost everywhere, not just at the Mom and Pops.

Quote:
I think we're essentially saying the same thing. To find out why there's so much added demand for .22, you'd have to ask the people who are buying it, why they are buying it. I've already ventured a guess above, and in my last post. All this added demand is what led to the shortage, and the shortage is what's led to the inflated prices, and so on.
I would tend to agree that we are closer to agreement than it may appear here. The devil is in the details, and it can be (for me at least) somewhat difficult to convey in this medium what is easily understood in a face to face conversation.

Cheers!
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Old 11-22-2014, 11:29 PM
 
5,242 posts, read 2,389,930 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper 88 View Post
My answer to the OP:

$18-$25 per 500..... Market value.

I wouldn't pay a penny more than that as a buyer, and if I ain't buy'n, you ain't sell'n. which is why the buyers POV is more important to you than the sellers.
Again, if that were market value, you could find it everywhere, and in the quantity that you want to purchase. That simply isn't the case.
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Old 11-23-2014, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Columbia, California
6,662 posts, read 25,375,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by st33lcas3 View Post
How much should I charge for 6000 rounds of CCI mini mag RN in factory sealed 100 round packs? I'll even throw in the Plano ammo boxes I have been keeping them in.
Here in central CA that would sell in minutes for $600. I can sell 550 packs for $50 each all day.
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Old 11-23-2014, 07:41 PM
 
Location: Spots Wyoming
18,696 posts, read 35,457,801 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
Again, if that were market value, you could find it everywhere, and in the quantity that you want to purchase. That simply isn't the case.
$18 a brick may not be the price in your local, however, it is the price here, at a local mom and pop store. So obviously, $50 a brick is not everywhere. Have you looked at Cabelas? It is NOT $50. a brick from them.
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Old 11-23-2014, 09:02 PM
 
5,242 posts, read 2,389,930 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElkHunter View Post
$18 a brick may not be the price in your local, however, it is the price here, at a local mom and pop store. So obviously, $50 a brick is not everywhere. Have you looked at Cabelas? It is NOT $50. a brick from them.
Yes, I have looked at Cabelas. Their available .22 ammo is currently $44-66/550 rounds.

A local anomaly in pricing doesn't change the fact that the current average price, nationwide, is approx. $50/brick. Is it everywhere? Nope. But very few people have the opportunity to purchase it at $18.

Care to PM me the name of the shop? I'd be interested to see where I can get ammo at that price.
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