Hows the economy? (crime, credit, how much)

[kaimuki]

Originally Posted by Lopaka

It's refreshing to run into like-minded people. It was announced this morning that we lost another 53,000 jobs across America. And this is only from the large corporations, not counting small businesses. Home Depot's letting go 7,000 employees. Think they can't or won't go bankrupt? Guess again! I heard on the radio the other week that 167,000 businesses in America have already gone under. The figure must be higher by now.

Keep your eye on the commercial real estate market. They're leveraged way more than the housing market. Who's gonna rent all the large spaces being vacated by these big box retailers? The Circuit City building in Pearl Ridge was only built a few years ago. I'm sure there's a hefty mortgage that's not being paid right now. Can you picture another large retailer coming in and setting up shop anytime soon? Not me.

This is getting real. Wife told me yesterday that 5 people in her IT Department were released, and she was spared the ax. So where these people gonna find a job?

My wife works as an escrow officer and many people in the former comapnies she worked for have been laid off. They have been closing branches too. Her current employer has stopped paying overtime and took away paid holidays with very short notice. Her job now mostly entails closing short sales and refis for the few who qualify, not new home sales. She has been doing escrow work for more than 12 years and has never seen this many short sales. We hope she doesn't get pink-slipped.

Some of my in-laws work in construction and at hotels. I just learned over the weekend that many of them will lose their construction jobs over the next 1-3 weeks.

I don't think the world is coming to an end like some do at the business forum at this site. I'm just a realist and I hope my family and I are ready for what ever might happen. It's just amazing to see how rapidly our ecomony has tanked. If banks like Fortis, CITI and WaMU, and investment banks like Lehman Brothers, and insurance giants like AIG can fail, just about any other institution can. It's frightening!

[hotzcatz]

Originally Posted by Jonah K

You left out Petco, the Sports Authority, Foot Locker, Payless Shoes, The Sunglass Hut, Zale's Jewelers, Coach, Louis Vuitton, Tiffany & Co., Pacific Sunwear, Lids, Blockbuster Video, IHOP, Denny's, Romano's Macaroni Grill, Burger King, KFC, Panda Express, Arby's, Subway Sandwiches, Quiznos, Cinnabon, Dairy Queen/Orange Julius, Hot Dog-on-a-Stick, Jamba Juice, and a few others.

Some old retail establishments will close and some new ones will open. There has always been a relative overabundance of retail establishments on the Big Island considering the resident population. The survival of many retail establishments on the Big Island is directly related to tourism.

Petco just opened in Kona but they won't last very long since their prices are considerably higher than the feed stores. I don't think we have a Sports Authority on the Big Island? Can't think of Foot Locker or Payless unless they are in the Prince Kuhio mall which probably won't survive the downturn. Sunglass Hut? Never heard of 'em. Zale's will be bankrupt by the end of the year. I don't think we have a Coach, Luis Vuitton or Tiffany unless it is inside one of the hotel shopping centers. Never heard of Lids and it doesn't sound like a mainland chain store. There are several Blockbuster videos but they won't survive with the online video downloads and the videos through the mail folks around. I think Pacific Sunwear is already in recievership? There is that new IHOP where Dottie's used to be but they are too expensive to survive. Is there a Denny's? Maybe in Kona? Someone said something about a Macaroni grill, but I've never heard of them, are they a mainland chain? And why would you want to grill macaroni anyway? There are several KFC places, aren't there? There's probably a Burger King, but I can't think of where right now. I think there is one Arby's in the P.K. mall, dunno if Kona has one. I think all the Quiznos closed already, they came and went before we bothered to go to town and see what they were all about. Unless Cinnabon & D.Q are in the Prince Kuhio mall's food court, I can't think of any of them. Never heard of Hot-Dog-on-a-stick, but I can guess what they sell. I think there are some Jamba Juices around but they are in the same league with Starbucks of selling expensive drinks. Is Panda Express a mainland chain?

But most of the listing of the "shopping opportunities" here are either specialty shops or fast food and even with them on the list, that doesn't give us too many shopping places. Which considering how little most folks get paid it is probably just as well since we couldn't afford to buy much anyway.

I don't know if this is TEOTWAWNKI (the end of the world as we now know it) but there are a LOT of people out there in a world of hurt. Folks are losing their jobs, their houses, their cars, etc. I know of several folks living in their vehicles just sort of camping here and there. Other folks have moved in with family so they won't be homeless and I know several others getting ready to lose either their houses or their businesses and/or both.

Tourism on this island is down by somewhere around half? When sugar went down, Hilo lost 40% of it's economic support. This is likely to be about that bad if not worse.

A lot of folks I know are planting gardens, raising chickens and selecting their activities along the lines of "will it produce food". This whole economic downturn is systemic and global, until we get our jobs back from overseas and get our people busy producing something either edible or sell able, I don't see an end to it.

[cynmkolohe]

Here's a list of stores at Prince Kuhio Plaza....wonder what we'll find if we check back at the end of the year? Kay-B Toys is already closed (closing?).

(Hey, hotzcatz...I can tell you get over there about as much as I do! There is a Hot Dog On a Stick!)

American Eagle Outfitters
American Savings Bank
Arby's
Big Island Surf Co.
Blazin' Steaks
Blockbuster Video
Bolo Graphics
Champs Sports
Chen's Chinese Kitchen
Cingular Wireless
Cinnabon
Claire's Accessories
Dairy Queen/ Orange Julius
Diamond Wireless
Dollar Plus Store/ Fashion Etc.
East Hawaii Veterinary Clinic
Famous Footwear
Foot Locker
Gamestop
General Nutrition Center
Hawaiian Jewelry Store
Hawaiian Telcom
HFS Federal Credit Union
Hilo Hattie Store of Hawaii
Hosanna Christian Bookstore
Hot Dog On A Stick
Hot Topic
Icing by Claire's
IHOP
Imperial Jewelers
Island Eruptions
Jamba Juice
Jeans Warehouse
Journey's
K-B Toys
Kentucky Fried Chicken
Kitty n Frendz
Kuhio Dental Group
Kuhio Grille
Lan He's
Lauren's Hallmark
Lids
Local Style
Longs Drugs
Macy's
MasterCuts
Maui Tacos
McDonald's Express
Men's Shop
Mobi PCS
Morning Glory
Nail Trix
Native Hawaiian Gear
On Site Therapeutic
Pacific Sunwear
Pay Day Hawaii
Payless Shoe Source
Pictures Plus
Pizza Ala Slice
PostNet
Premier Salon at Macy's
Prince Kuhio Stadium Cinemas
Radio Shack
Regis Hairstylists
Safeway
Sears
Sears Automotive
Social Security Office
Spencer Gifts
Starbucks
Sunglass Hut
Tilt Family Entertainment Center
Timefix & Jewelry
Vitamin World
Wiwo'ole
Yi Qin's Gifts
Young Art
Yum Yum Teriyaki
Zales Jewelers

[Lopaka]

Originally Posted by bulldogboy

In your opinion. The government spent the same kind of money (given what the current administration is projecting) in the Great Depression attempting to keep the economy afloat, people fed and employment buoyed, relative to the size of the economy and the value of the dollar. I'm not going to get into New Deal economics, but the government is trying to knock the tsunami down to a small tidal wave...

Your opinion is on the far right of what even the most pessimistic prognosticators are saying about the future of the global economy. It paints an incredibly bleak picture of what is going to transpire. Most of the economists today are looking at a deep and protracted recession that most likely will not start to show signs of life for another four quarters or so, which is a considerable amount of time in an economic cycle, but it's not cataclysmic. It is going to be bleak for awhile, and it's going to be a very tough 2009, but the economy will get back on track again. The global economy is too big and too dynamic by it's very nature to not recover and move forward.

Thing is, most of these economists that are projecting a short ride with a bright future are the same ones that gave a positive economic forecast not less than a year ago. I recall reading in the paper last year that the State Economist predicted a speed bump, but otherwise a strong economy. I mean, if they failed to predict what's happening today, even a few months ago, what makes anyone think they even have a clue what's going to happen tomorrow? Their credibility is shot, as far as I'm concerned. I'd rather listen to a weather man.

I listen to guys like Peter Schiff and world reknown trends forecaster Gerald Celente who have reputations and great track records of predicting future trends. Both have been on all the major news networks, on television and radio for years saying this was going to happen. These are documented on Youtube. I liked what Schiff quoted about this bailout thing- "If these guys in Congress never saw it coming, then what makes you think they have the answers?"

[Jonah K]

Originally Posted by hotzcatz

Petco just opened in Kona but they won't last very long since their prices are considerably higher than the feed stores. I don't think we have a Sports Authority on the Big Island? Can't think of Foot Locker or Payless unless they are in the Prince Kuhio mall which probably won't survive the downturn. Sunglass Hut? Never heard of 'em. Zale's will be bankrupt by the end of the year. I don't think we have a Coach, Luis Vuitton or Tiffany unless it is inside one of the hotel shopping centers. Never heard of Lids and it doesn't sound like a mainland chain store. There are several Blockbuster videos but they won't survive with the online video downloads and the videos through the mail folks around. I think Pacific Sunwear is already in recievership? There is that new IHOP where Dottie's used to be but they are too expensive to survive. Is there a Denny's? Maybe in Kona? Someone said something about a Macaroni grill, but I've never heard of them, are they a mainland chain? And why would you want to grill macaroni anyway? There are several KFC places, aren't there? There's probably a Burger King, but I can't think of where right now. I think there is one Arby's in the P.K. mall, dunno if Kona has one. I think all the Quiznos closed already, they came and went before we bothered to go to town and see what they were all about. Unless Cinnabon & D.Q are in the Prince Kuhio mall's food court, I can't think of any of them. Never heard of Hot-Dog-on-a-stick, but I can guess what they sell. I think there are some Jamba Juices around but they are in the same league with Starbucks of selling expensive drinks. Is Panda Express a mainland chain?

Most of the places I mentioned are either in or near the Prince Kuhio Mall, Kona Commons, or King's Shops at Waikoloa. Panda Express is a Chinese fast-food chain that started at the Glendate Galleria Shopping Center in California during the 1980s.

Originally Posted by hotzcatz

But most of the listing of the "shopping opportunities" here are either specialty shops or fast food and even with them on the list, that doesn't give us too many shopping places. Which considering how little most folks get paid it is probably just as well since we couldn't afford to buy much anyway.

I agree. However, for an island that has a resident population that's less than 180,000 people, the "shopping opportunities" are probably more than adequate. In addition, there have always been local alternatives to the mainland-based chain stores, eg. HPM vis-à-vis Home Depot and Lowe's, KTA and Sack N' Save vis-à-vis Safeway, Ken's House of Pancakes vis-à-vis IHOP, Cost-U-Less vis-à-vis Costco and Sam's Club, Island Naturals vis-à-vis Trader Joe's, Kope Kope vis-à-vis Starbucks and Peet's Coffee and Tea, etc. There's not exactly a dearth of places on the Big Island that are willing to separate consumers from their money.

Originally Posted by hotzcatz

I don't know if this is TEOTWAWNKI (the end of the world as we now know it) but there are a LOT of people out there in a world of hurt. Folks are losing their jobs, their houses, their cars, etc. I know of several folks living in their vehicles just sort of camping here and there. Other folks have moved in with family so they won't be homeless and I know several others getting ready to lose either their houses or their businesses and/or both.

Tourism on this island is down by somewhere around half? When sugar went down, Hilo lost 40% of it's economic support. This is likely to be about that bad if not worse.

A lot of folks I know are planting gardens, raising chickens and selecting their activities along the lines of "will it produce food". This whole economic downturn is systemic and global, until we get our jobs back from overseas and get our people busy producing something either edible or sell able, I don't see an end to it.

The current economic conditions are simply part of the "economic cycle." There have been recessions and depressions before, as well as economic expansions.

[KonaKat]

Lids is a hat/cap store, there is one on Alii Dr. in Kailua Kona. Ditto for Sunglass Hut, plus I think there is on in the Queen's Shops up at the resort at Waikoloa. Also Arby's & Macaroni Grill (supposed to be very good food) is up there.
PetCo, Sports Authority, Panda Express, another Thai place, at the new Kona Commons. Still have the Quizno's on Henry St. It did close for a few weeks some time ago but re-opened. Beats Subway by a country mile.

We had a rooster show up about 1 year ago. Beautiful guy. Before long he had found a wife and by Easter they had 11 cute fluffy children. We kept 5 of the hens and made them a nice condo with an ocean view . In 6 months they were laying. Meanwhile the parents had another batch, and of those, 2 hens still live in the yard and provide bug control duty. A neighbor complained about the rooster so he had to be re-homed to a larger farm. I really loved that rooster, he was so pretty. Now we have this lone hen turkey that has adopted the 2 loose chickens! She chased a stray cat out of the yard the other day.

[hotzcatz]

Having chickens move in is perfect! My neighbor and I went to KTA today and the place where there is usually eggs was almost bare! Dunno why, maybe the egg shipment just hadn't come in by Monday afternoon, but it looked quite grim. They were also short on mainland type produce - apples, pears and such. Might just not have stocked the store for the week yet, dunno. We've been buying less and less stuff lately since the prices have gone up, but we've got chickens in our backyard, too.

[KonaKat]

We gathered 10 eggs in the last 2 days. Good chickens. It's amazing how entertaining they are! LOL I grew up on a stock ranch, but we never had chickens. Ours are very tame and you can just pick them up and hold them.

[Lopaka]

Hyperinflation, HERE WE COME !!!

KonaCat, how much you want for those eggs?

Bank bailout could cost $4 trillion - Jan. 27, 2009

[hotzcatz]

My neighbor is selling eggs from her hens in the backyard for $5 a dozen, that's about the going rate for backyard eggs around here. Fertile hatching eggs are more expensive but these are just eating eggs.

I saw a "help wanted" sign yesterday! The first one I've seen for about four or five months! Looked like a part time minimum wage job, probably, but that might be better than nothing.

I dunno about the hyperinflation, mostly it seems like we are beginning to see shortages as things aren't produced or sent over because folks don't have money for anything other than the bare basics anymore. The shelves don't seem to be stocked as full, the aisles are bigger. I'd guess there is about twenty to thirty percent less stuff in the stores.

There are also a lot of "toys" available on Craig's List. If you are in the market for big ticket toy items like kayaks, motorcycles, boats, ATVs, tractors, bulldozers, horses, cattle, etc., there is a lot more to choose from than before. At the garage and yard sales, folks are asking more money for their stuff since they seem to be having the sales to make either enough money to pay the rent or enough money to go somewhere else. Before, folks having yard and garage sales were just trying to get rid of stuff and would sell it for next to nothing, now they are hoping to make money.