Aloha Gil...

[Jungjohann]

Gils depressive state was his ultimate undoing, but po'o maluna for Nora No upper wind sheer pushing it to the NE as it gets closer to the Islands... Could be a little makani nui coming our way.. with no upper winds to pull it apart.


I'm off to,,,, uuuurrrrrppppp, scuze me, COSTCO


Gotta stock up on something

[Kawena]

Originally Posted by pj737

All kidding aside, this is a serious storm and people need to be prepared. If the current forecast is accurate, Oahu is going to see damage to homes and infrastructure.

Many people don't know this but Oahu has NEVER IN ALL MODERN HISTORY received a direct hit by a hurricane OR tropical storm. Hurricane Nina in 1957 (nearly 60 years ago) was the strongest tropical system to impart its wrath on Oahu with sustained winds of only 45 mph. A "weak" tropical storm with even 50 mph SUSTAINED winds has never directly hit Oahu and that is exactly what is predicted by NOAA today. A 50 mph storm can have wind gusts that approach hurricane speed (70 mph); with our extremely mountainous terrain, wind can accelerate considerably at the base of these towering mountains.

The news media needs to remind people that Oahu has never in modern history experienced sustained winds of even 50 mph and that a storm like this can potentially cause significant or severe damage to many older single wall homes on Oahu. Old homes here are very susceptible to damage from even weak tropical storms. It's surprising how some single wall homes are even standing (with NO wind) considering the significant dry rot and termite damage they've endured over the decades. A good wind gust of 60-70 mph is going to severely damage some of these flimsy homes.

HECO still has a majority of its power lines above ground; some of which are very top heavy. Many of them are located on poles that have significant dry rot and termite damage. Even a direct hit from a sustained 50 mph storm is going to topple many of these weaker poles. Branches from trees and trees themselves will fall on power lines and cause more outages.

It will be interesting if the storm stays on track and intensity. If it stays on its current track but its intensity is slightly higher than what is predicted (sustained winds of 60 or 70 mph vs 50 mph), you can bet Oahu will see significant damage. Weather has been very kind to Oahu over the last 100 years. This storm, while not powerful compared to those that make headlines nationwide, is possibly going to introduce us to weather extremes even the oldest of local people here have ever experienced.

Be prepared.

great post I am with you on Hawaiian elec. their need to update the grid. But with the pending sale to nextera why bother it will be their problem. When they buy H/E do the get American savings as well??

your statement of... "It will be interesting if the storm stays on track and intensity."

how many have?? even the projected models have not come close to they patter some of them had taken. In the following video the guy talks about how it is possible that all those storms were steered and or created. MauiSkyWatch.org

[Kawena]

sorry link didnt work.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFOyWhumr3A

[Mikala43]

The forecasting has been so far off, I'm only concerned with the storms they are NOT going to hit.

Seriously.

[AlohaAina3]

Originally Posted by Mikala43

The forecasting has been so far off, I'm only concerned with the storms they are NOT going to hit.

Seriously.

Isn't it great , what a job. To get paid to be right half the time. Where do I sign up to be a weather man. It's difficult as a local to know what to take seriously, Most of us chuckle when we hear a storm conning and don't really take it serious because so many storms and hurricanes have missed us. But at the same time we need to remember what happened to Hilo in the sixties. Locals heard the total wave warnings but ignore d it thinking they were safe . Many people lost there lives.

[Grassyknoll]

I always enjoy seeing the potential storm tracks they show on the news. There's always that one forecaster that has the storm tracking way differently than all the other agencies. I view it as sort of the meteorological equivalent of the 1 dentist out of 10 that doesn't reccomended Trident gum for his patients that chew gum.

[Mikala43]

They usually have 5 forecast models (computer) and they usually pick the track that those 5 programs agree on. It's still wrong like 90% of the time.

I tell all my nieces and nephews to be meteorologists, no accountability.