Is Hawaii's Housing Bubble Bursting (Honolulu: real estate, foreclosures, condo)

[scoozie2]

This is why I think the bubble is bursting ...

1. Hawaii's house prices went through the roof - all areas that had the highest increases stand to have the steepest declines in the near future. The US (including Hawaii) have never seen a run-up of prices as inflated as the 2000 housing bubble. Bubbles deflate (market correction) and it has already started on the Mainland.
Moderator cut: Do not spam this site.

2. You've heard it before, "Hawaii is unique" blah blah blah. No we are not. We get hit just like our mainland counterparts ... remember the 80's and 90's? The only difference is things happen to us later - the inevitable gets delayed.

3. Foreclosures are on the rise. A 218% increase in April? Scary!

4. Inflation - harder to keep or buy a house in Hawaii when inflation (especially gas and food) run rampant ... don't forget that we already sit on a 30% higher cost of living than our Mainland counterparts.

5. Interest rates are going up. The FEDS made a monster mistake by focusing on the economy - now they have to re-focus on inflation after their economic policies deflated the dollar and increased inflation. How many houses will sell in Hawaii at a 9% 30-year fixed mortgage?

6. Mainland publications are projection huge drops in Hawaii housing prices - to the tune of 16% and higher. Why is the Hawaii media slow to react? Advertising.

what do you think?

[cynmkolohe]

Originally Posted by scoozie2

Why is the Hawaii media slow to react? Advertising?

what do you think?

What are you referring to exactly in terms of media? I've seen many print articles and several TV news segments dealing with the housing market, including articles in our local papers here on the Big Island.

[MadRussian]

It's may be spam ... but how is now housing market on Hawaii? I many areas of FL and CA prices dropping already. Some areas see up to 20% drop. I know there are some HI realtors on this board. Anybody can give us truthful assessment of current situation and some thoughts for future?

[PalmSpringsDan]

I'm not in real estate, but I find it hard to believe that Hawaii is not subject to the general laws of economics. Many economists think this is just the beginning of a massive downward spiral of housing prices (along with the economy). Some even go as far as to suggest we may be headed for a full-on depression.

Either way though, Hawaii is not immune to what is happening everywhere else in the economy.

[cynmkolohe]

Title Guaranty Learning Center - Statewide Housing Statistics

The link above is one I've posted here in other threads. For anyone researching the Hawaii market, it is a good place to start, keeping in mind there are varied factors that will impact any specific area that you might be focusing on. The numbers in the data above will provide only very general trends to look at. Working with a local professional is really the best way to get up-to-date information about the area and price range that you want to target.

Hawaii is not a land unto its own...we are certainly experiencing changes in our market and, as an agent, I do my best to be sure my clients have access to the best and most current information that they need to make good decisions. I also believe it is irresponsible to make a "one-size-fits-all" statement about any market or individual's best course of action, just as it is irresponsible for a real estate professional to engage in "crystal ball" type predictions about the future.

We each need to educate ourselves about the current economy and make decisions based on solid information--for some, the answer is to wait to enter the market. But what remains true is that people are still buying and selling properties every day. If you are a buyer in this market, your best bet is to work with someone who has your interests in mind and be sure you are making the best possible decision in light of current circumstances. On the other hand, if you are not a buyer in this market, but are waiting and watching, no one can truly predict what the circumstances will be when the time comes for you to make your purchase.

[Kyusa]

i really hope hawaii prices come down a bit. i always wanted to buy condo or house in hawaii.

[Sweetbeet]

I really hope Hawaii prices don't come down too much. I just bought a house in Hawaii! LOL!

[cynmkolohe]

Big Island Real Estate, Hawaii Real Estate and Related News

The site above has a number of recent articles dealing with Hawaii real estate issues.

[cynmkolohe]

Hawaii foreclosures down 22% in May - Pacific Business News (Honolulu):

Note this one in particular to see how recent Hawaii forclosure numbers compare with other states. The headline refers to the previous month's numbers. Stats for last year are noted in the article.

[scoozie2]

Originally Posted by cynmkolohe

What are you referring to exactly in terms of media? I've seen many print articles and several TV news segments dealing with the housing market, including articles in our local papers here on the Big Island.

Media across the country has to deal with the realtor advertising machine. Real estate is one, if not the biggest contributor of $$$ in advertising to newspapers. Media has to sugarcoat negative information or else the real estate $$$ will threaten to pull out. There are specific instances of editors on the Mainland being fired for putting our articles that were too negative, albeit true!!! I'm not saying its happening here ... but you gotta take everything in the media with a grain of salt. There are ways to word things that make a negative story seem positive.

The site below is also a good start to get information about the state of housing in Hawaii.

Hawaii Housing Real Estate Bubble