Hawaii's Ecomony Truning Around??? (Pearl City, Kailua: real estate market, 2009, foreclosures)

[hotzcatz]

It will take more than a day or two for the tide to turn, IMHO. In order to determine if there are less tourists or not, you have to know what the boom times look like. When there's hardly any room for another beach towel on the beach, crowds up and down the sidewalks, herds of tourists following the flag held by their leader, etc. That's what boom time looks like. Could you walk easily on the sidewalk? Did you have to wait in a line anywhere? Was parking hard to find?

In a fifty percent downturn, there are still half the people there so it doesn't look dead, but it generally takes more than that fifty percent to keep all the businesses open.

[VanHa]

Originally Posted by hotzcatz

It will take more than a day or two for the tide to turn, IMHO. In order to determine if there are less tourists or not, you have to know what the boom times look like. When there's hardly any room for another beach towel on the beach, crowds up and down the sidewalks, herds of tourists following the flag held by their leader, etc. That's what boom time looks like. Could you walk easily on the sidewalk? Did you have to wait in a line anywhere? Was parking hard to find?

In a fifty percent downturn, there are still half the people there so it doesn't look dead, but it generally takes more than that fifty percent to keep all the businesses open.

I agree with you hotzcatz...but the tide has to turn sometime and do you see and signs of an uptrend?

[mdand3boys]

Originally Posted by VanHa

I was talking to a real estate agent who is a friend of mine and he indicated that March home sales are nearly double that of February so far...this is not saying much since February sales were dismal...but still it just might be the start...thoughts?

Home sales may have doubled - but is that due to the buying of foreclosed properties at bargain prices?

[VanHa]

Originally Posted by mdand3boys

Home sales may have doubled - but is that due to the buying of foreclosed properties at bargain prices?

But isn't that how the economy begins to rebound. Those that have the money start buying....

[hotzcatz]

Might be a few folks spending tax return money, might be a few folks desperate to get out of the cold. The prices have lowered, but I suspect they will still go lower. I'm not, of course, a real estate salesperson or have anything to do with real estate other than help folks who are building houses on the property they have already bought, but it seems we aren't at a bottom yet. Most of the houses I see selling are the ones that have had really reduced prices.

[HankDfrmSD]

Originally Posted by hotzcatz

Might be a few folks spending tax return money, might be a few folks desperate to get out of the cold. The prices have lowered, but I suspect they will still go lower. I'm not, of course, a real estate salesperson or have anything to do with real estate other than help folks who are building houses on the property they have already bought, but it seems we aren't at a bottom yet. Most of the houses I see selling are the ones that have had really reduced prices.

I agree. Having been involved in both California and Hawaii Real Estate (as an owner) for over forty years, I have seen the turns (both up and down) in Hawaii follow the turns in California by about two years.

In my opinion, California Real Estate is near the bottom right now.

Hank

[VanHa]

I agree hank that it is the bottom. Have you seen signs of positive change?

[Sweetbeet]

So you think HI RE will be going down for two more years?

Wow, good thing we're staying a while.

[newUHprof]

Originally Posted by Sweetbeet

So you think HI RE will be going down for two more years?

Wow, good thing we're staying a while.

I was just thinking the same thing!

[cynmkolohe]

The links below are to information from Paul Brewbaker, until recently the Chief Economist at Bank of Hawaii...

The first link is a news article summarizing comments he made in Feb '09.
The second is to one of the last reports he presented in '08.
The last link is to his biography, still on the BoH website.

There are a lot of people in business here who have high regard for his "predictions".

Links:
Brewbaker: Sickly economy to stick around a bit longer - Mauinews.com | News, Sports, Jobs, Visitor's Information - The Maui News

https://www.boh.com/econ/reports/econ111708.pdf (Pretty detailed stuff, but there are some summary sections that are particularly interesting.)

https://www.boh.com/econ/512_538.asp