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Old 10-04-2018, 05:26 PM
 
4,618 posts, read 10,497,588 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by otterhere View Post
Yes, but HOW FAR "before the end of October"? That's the point of this thread.
If you get your flu shot tomorrow it will easily cover you through the entirety of the flu season...

If you get your flu shot at the end of the month it will cover you through the entirety of the flu season...

If you wait until the end of the month to get your flu shot you are "not protected" until Mid November and are at risk for catching the flu before the vaccine affords any protection...

I see no advantage to waiting a couple of weeks at this point only disadvantage......

 
Old 10-04-2018, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
84,962 posts, read 98,795,031 times
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^^Agreed.
 
Old 10-04-2018, 05:56 PM
 
4,781 posts, read 1,544,109 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
It does not matter what strains of the flu virus are circulating in a particular year. We know from past experience approximately when the season will start and end, though some seasons start earlier or end later. The timing of peak activity will vary, too. There is nothing mysterious about it. In addition, the US experience typically is very similar to the one in Australia, where their flu season is during our summer months, because it is winter there. The season that just finished in Australia was milder than average, which does not guarantee the same for the US, as flu viruses easily mutate, but it provides reason for optimism. The dominant strain in Australia was an H1N1 covered by the vaccine.

For most people the vaccine will last the entire season. There is no reason t get it very early and then take another shot. Best timing is probably before the end of October unless your community is already seeing flu activity. If it is, take the vaccine now.
How do they know that the virus ... which is different every year ... will circulate?
Why is it assumed that ALL virus act exactly the same and show up at the exact same time, like clockwork, every year?

Where does it start? How does it get there?

And why does the flu vaccine wane so quickly? Vaccines are supported to provide immunity so why doesn't it 'last' the entire year?

And if it is primarily dependent on cold weather, then why is it recommended for people who live year-round in warm states? They shouldn't need it, according to that logic.
 
Old 10-04-2018, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Central IL
13,360 posts, read 7,121,412 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedevilz View Post
If you get your flu shot tomorrow it will easily cover you through the entirety of the flu season...

If you get your flu shot at the end of the month it will cover you through the entirety of the flu season...

If you wait until the end of the month to get your flu shot you are "not protected" until Mid November and are at risk for catching the flu before the vaccine affords any protection...

I see no advantage to waiting a couple of weeks at this point only disadvantage......
I agree - 90% of the value is just in GETTING the danged shot. Getting it scheduled at the exact "right" moment is an exercise in futility because every year the flu season starts at a different time. Aim for early/mid October and you'll likely be ahead of the start and protected through to the end of the season.
 
Old 10-04-2018, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Central IL
13,360 posts, read 7,121,412 times
Reputation: 31053
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice View Post
How do they know that the virus ... which is different every year ... will circulate?
Why is it assumed that ALL virus act exactly the same and show up at the exact same time, like clockwork, every year?

Where does it start? How does it get there?

And why does the flu vaccine wane so quickly? Vaccines are supported to provide immunity so why doesn't it 'last' the entire year?

And if it is primarily dependent on cold weather, then why is it recommended for people who live year-round in warm states? They shouldn't need it, according to that logic.
Yes...it's all totally at random and completely unknowable! You don't think it has been STUDIED?

We may not know everything but we know enough to have some kind of impact. We can't prevent fatal car crashes every time but that doesn't mean we don't keep trying to construct cars better to increase safety. The viruses may be slightly different from year to year but it's not a completely different species with no overlap...there was an earlier post about the movement of viruses over time such that we learn from other parts of the world that get it first and we can use that information to prepare.

Here's something explaining booster doses - it may not apply perfectly to flu shots but it does to other vaccines:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booster_dose
The old shingles vaccine's effectiveness waned substantially after several years while the new Shingrix vaccine lasts much longer...I don't know exactly why (except maybe it's two doses work better to build the immune response)...and I don't much care - but I got it and I'm glad!
 
Old 10-04-2018, 06:15 PM
 
4,781 posts, read 1,544,109 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reneeh63 View Post
Yes...it's all totally at random and completely unknowable! You don't think it has been STUDIED?

We may not know everything but we know enough to have some kind of impact. We can't prevent fatal car crashes every time but that doesn't mean we don't keep trying to construct cars better to increase safety. The viruses may be slightly different from year to year but it's not a completely different species with no overlap...there was an earlier post about the movement of viruses over time such that we learn from other parts of the world that get it first and we can use that information to prepare.

Here's something explaining booster doses - it may not apply perfectly to flu shots but it does to other vaccines:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booster_dose
The old shingles vaccine's effectiveness waned substantially after several years while the new Shingrix vaccine lasts much longer...I don't know exactly why (except maybe it's two doses work better to build the immune response)...and I don't much care - but I got it and I'm glad!
It's a different virus every year. So that means that they have NOT studied the virus ... because they don't know what it is.

So if they don't know what it is, what are they basing the predictions off of? If what you asy is correct and they are basing it off of virus movement over time -- what does that mean anyway? -- then why is the efficacy so LOW?
 
Old 10-04-2018, 06:22 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
21,489 posts, read 26,089,700 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice View Post
How do they know that the virus ... which is different every year ... will circulate?
From historical patterns.

Quote:
Why is it assumed that ALL virus act exactly the same and show up at the exact same time, like clockwork, every year?
It is not assumed that "ALL virus act exactly the same and show up at the exact same time". Influenza viruses differ in their virulence and the season does not always start on exactly a predefined date.

Quote:
Where does it start? How does it get there?
See the previous link for possible explanations.

Quote:
And why does the flu vaccine wane so quickly? Vaccines are supported to provide immunity so why doesn't it 'last' the entire year?
Because the vaccine is not as immunogenic as some other vaccines are. The immune systems of some people respond better than others. That is why there is a high dose version for older folks.

Quote:
And if it is primarily dependent on cold weather, then why is it recommended for people who live year-round in warm states? They shouldn't need it, according to that logic.
Flu is everywhere. Warmer locations have it, too, but may have fewer peaks and valleys in incidence than colder areas.

Why Are Flu Viruses Seasonal? - TIME
 
Old 10-04-2018, 06:54 PM
 
Location: The analog world
15,569 posts, read 8,742,257 times
Reputation: 20883
I will be getting mine tomorrow, and I appreciate the OP's reminder that now is the time!
 
Old 10-04-2018, 08:16 PM
 
Location: Central IL
13,360 posts, read 7,121,412 times
Reputation: 31053
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice View Post
It's a different virus every year. So that means that they have NOT studied the virus ... because they don't know what it is.

So if they don't know what it is, what are they basing the predictions off of? If what you asy is correct and they are basing it off of virus movement over time -- what does that mean anyway? -- then why is the efficacy so LOW?
You don't have to get it if you are so confused about the benefits. Makes no difference to me if you get it or not and I have a feeling you won't be convinced by any argument so.....I'll just worry about myself.
 
Old 10-04-2018, 09:16 PM
 
Location: Middle of the ocean
27,476 posts, read 17,629,902 times
Reputation: 39936
Criteria for determining circulating flu choice for vaccines:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-selection.htm
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