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with H5N1, you have the virulence but not the H2H to cause a deadly pandemic.
with H1N1 we are seeing, we have the H2H but not the virulence.
In either influenza, the fear is mutation to either mutate to more virulent strain in the case of H1N1, or mutate to a strain that is transmissible H2H as in the case of H5N1.
Does that help?
Yes, very much so. But, what is the realistic possibility that could happen, and how does this happen? During the 1918 flu, it started mild, like this one but mutated.
It is amazing to me that nobody is really discussing the fact that this trio of virus strains encompasses Avian flu in it. If is jumps to become the dominant element in this circulating virus, all bets are off.
Savage said in his professional opinion, the longer this virus circulates around the globe, the more likely this is to happen. History has shown that viruses that thrive globally for more then a few months, usually show evidence of major mutations.
I think they need to do more to stop this thing now. Why did Mexico essentially shut their entire country down for 6 deaths? And we are going on, business as usual?
OMG EVERYBODY PANIC! Come on, people...use your heads. Just practice normal everyday sanitation that you should be using already, and don't worry about it.
What really pisses me off are posts like these....the moment people start to discuss issues as such, someone always comes in and accusses people of panicing...no one is panicing, we're simply giving our opinions for God's Sake.
Yes, very much so. But, what is the realistic possibility that could happen, and how does this happen? It's not a matter of if, but when. We just don't know the timing. It happens by genetic recombination During the 1918 flu, it started mild, like this one but mutated.
It is amazing to me that nobody is really discussing the fact that this trio of virus strains encompasses Avian flu in it. If is jumps to become the dominant element in this circulating virus, all bets are off. (Don't focus so much on "Avian" flu. There are many avian influenza viruses. Any portion of the cocktail can mutate. It could mutate to H2N2 (only for example) if it combines with the appropriate virus.
Savage said in his professional opinion, the longer this virus circulates around the globe, the more likely this is to happen. History has shown that viruses that thrive globally for more then a few months, usually show evidence of major mutations. The more prevalent, the better chance for mutation or combination.
I think they need to do more to stop this thing now. Why did Mexico essentially shut their entire country down for 6 deaths? And we are going on, business as usual? We can't just close shop all at once. As the virus spreads and if the severity increases, then the appropriate measures will be taken. The WHO level 5 activates all public health response systems, according to state pandemic plans, so not only are we responding appropriately, but are in stand-by mode for new developments and raised concerns.
I'm not picking up a sense of panic from posters presenting their opinions on this thread, but moreso from the manner in which the media is presenting the breaking news.
Um, 98 people per day die in the US of seasonal flu. Swine flu has infected about that many total, with not a single US resident death. The only death in the US was of a baby from Mexico that was flown here for treatment.
I wouldn't give yourself a coronary over this. Its all media hype, much like bird flu that was going to kill us all. And mad cow disease that was going to kill us all. And the swine flu from the 70s that was going to kill us all. Come on, think about it. Yes, there will be some deaths from it. The very elderly, the very young, the ones with weakened immune systems. The rest of us are going to be just fine. You know, like we are every year when the seasonal flu goes around. *rolls eyes*
I wasn't to sure if I should post another topic but there are enough people reading this to get an idea of stats. For those of you who have ever had the flu, either this year or in years past, did your doctor ever test you or did they just say "you have the flu, go home rest, drink plenty of liquids"? I was curious, I have a friend who is a nurse here at the hospital and says she thinks it has been here but because they don't test very often noone would know. That prompted my question. How many of you just self medicate at home when you have flu symptoms?
It is amazing to me that nobody is really discussing the fact that this trio of virus strains encompasses Avian flu in it. If is jumps to become the dominant element in this circulating virus, all bets are off.
Currenty Egypt has 5 cases of Avian Flu. They destroyed all the swine in their country. Now I think that's a good proactive move due to them having confirmed cases of H5N1. Why take that chance and they are reimbursing the farmers. BUT..many people are aware of the swine culling but are not aware that there are 5 cases of humans with H5N1 in that country.
I am keeping my eye on this and reading whatever I can. I also fear if this swine flu reaches China. And we may never know if it does as China denies everything until caught holding the bag.
Prior to becoming a high risk group, doctors never tested me or my family for the flu. They'd just examine me and say "it's a cold" "it's a flu" or "it's a bacteria infection." I also would self medicate at home---riding it out until the symptoms went away. I only remember once dragging myself into the doctor's office and it turned out to be encephalitis or viral menengitis (can't remember which). That was the sickest I ever remember being in my entire life. Now that I'm a high risk group, I rarely get sick because I immunize and try to be aware of my health hygeine. But I'm sure the doctor would swab/test me if I turned up with flu symptoms since I am in a high risk group AND I was immunized.
Prior to becoming a high risk group, doctors never tested me or my family for the flu. They'd just examine me and say "it's a cold" "it's a flu" or "it's a bacteria infection." I also would self medicate at home---riding it out until the symptoms went away. I only remember once dragging myself into the doctor's office and it turned out to be encephalitis or viral menengitis (can't remember which). That was the sickest I ever remember being in my entire life. Now that I'm a high risk group, I rarely get sick because I immunize and try to be aware of my health hygeine. But I'm sure the doctor would swab/test me if I turned up with flu symptoms since I am in a high risk group AND I was immunized.
This is what I was thinking also that unless you are high risk they normally wouldn't test. I also think it depends on where you live at and how good your medical care is as to whether or nor they would test you, my 15yr old is an asthmatic but never have they tested him for the flu even when he presented with the symptoms. Half the time we probably self diagnose ourselves, grab some theraflu and treat ourselves at home, alof of the times not even taking time off from work. I know the majority of people do not have a plethra of sick leave and like to save if for a real emergency and for most people the flu isn't a real emergency you just feel like crap. I know I see alot of kids at school that their parents send them sick, fever, cough, sore throat, headaches yet here they come to infect everyone else. My youngest son does not run a fever so I finally had to tell the nurse if he comes in telling you he feels bad call me because here they normally only call if they have a fever or vomit. So he could be as sick as a dog and contagious but without the fever they wouldn't send him home.
Aren't you contageous for a couple of days before you show symptoms? How then do you know when to keep your kids home or stay home because you have the flu, not to mention some people carry the virus but are asymptomatic.
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Come on, people...use your heads. Just practice normal everyday sanitation that you should be using already, and don't worry about it.
But, what is the realistic possibility that could happen, and how does this happen? It's not a matter of if, but when. We just don't know the timing. It happens by genetic recombination During the 1918 flu, it started mild, like this one but mutated. 
