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Old 05-18-2011, 05:36 AM
 
Location: 30-40°N 90-100°W
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Just choosing some, not all.

Ottoman Empire - I'd guess the Ottoman/Egyptian wars of 1831 to 1841 pretty much showed the Empire was collapsing, except the Empire lasted seven decades after that. Still the phrase "Sick Man of Europe" apparently comes from the 1850s so the timeline would seem to fit. Still I might place it further back to Napoleon's campaign in Egypt in 1798 or place it later with the Turko-Russian wars of the 1870s.

Imperial China - By 1860 the Opium Wars and the Taiping Rebellion pretty much meant the Qing were falling apart. Possibly some other kind of Imperial China could exist, but by 1885 the Self-Strengthening Movement appears to have stalled or lost support so the Chinese increasingly turned to making a more radical change. The failure in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-5 looks like a real/solid nail in the coffin.

Apartheid South Africa - Possibly 1986 when economic pressures on South Africa began to become pretty acute from what I can tell.

Nazi Germany - Possibly January 7, 1942 as they lost the Battle of Moscow and the US was now in the war. Or August 1934 as Nazism was kind of inherently doomed to failure and no longer had Hindenburg to even think about.
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Old 05-18-2011, 08:11 AM
 
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I'd actually say Nazi Germany's downfall was the start of the war with Russia
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Old 05-18-2011, 08:50 AM
 
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The Papal states IMO can be considered lost when the French declared war on Prussia, they (France) were unprepared for war, and although Bismark set things up for France to declare war on Germany so that he could unite the separate German states...

France, obviously, lost the war, and pulled out of the Papal State, so the Italian National Army swept in

I doubt some things would happen the same way if we knew the outcome in advance, so I think this is about as early on as the can be called.

FrancoPrussianwar.com Franco-Prussian war 1870-1871
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Old 05-19-2011, 07:14 PM
 
Location: Tijuana Exurbs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by majoun View Post
Apartheid South Africa was doomed from the moment it formally existed, when the National Party won the 1947 election and formally created apartheid... The question here is how did it manage to last as long as it did? No surprise it collapsed as a result of the end of the Cold War, but one would have expected it to collapse sooner. Did US and UK support keep it going?
I do agree that the end of the Cold War was a key factor in the collapse of South Africa's apartheid state. Before 1989, the ANC and the strong Communist and Socialist strain of thinking within and around that organization meant that the end of Apartheid would have cost white South Africans everything. They would have lost political power of course, but they would have lost all of their economic power as well. They would have become a dispossessed people. Therefore, the white South African people and elites were willing to fight the ANC to the end.

What the end of the Cold War showed was that a Socialist South Africa was no longer a viable post-apartheid option. Therefore, disbanding apartheid would not have meant the loss of ALL power and privilege for the whites, just the loss of political power. White South Africans weren't willing to forfeit everything they had for the sake of peace and harmony, but they were, in the end, willing to forfeit a lot of what they had.
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