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I am assuming the Germans would make proper choices instead of erroneous ones in order to stem the Soviets. A mistake here and there would go the margin necessary to counter a Soviet attack. I suppose it would have been botched in any case.
Guys, why even discuss this matter? USSR overproduced Germany with its allies and slaves. Technologically it was also superior - by efficiency, not the level of technology. Commanders were comparable, except during the first months. The numbers of willing manpower was absolutely in Soviet favor.
Germany couldn't possibly win.
And Allied aid of course helped USSR minimize losses and shorten the time to victory. To what extent, we can't possibly know.