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In my college government class we were talking about how every major empire in the ancient world has fallen. There is the old saying "Nothing lasts forever" would that still hold true with modern times? Just an interesting question that was brought up, and was wondering everyones input on the subject. Will modern america still be here a few hundred years from now per say, or one day simply be another story of a great empire that was on top of the world then fell? Didnt really know where to post this so i thought history...
Nations are extremely durable. Offhand, I can't think of a single sovereign nation that existed in the 18th, 19th or 20th century that is not still fairly intact, at least culturally,in some approximate form, except maybe a couple of amalgams (like Ottoman Empire) that later un-amalgamated.
IF somebody had asked you in about 1850 "How long will Paraguay last", what would you have said? Yet, despite two disastrous wars that killed virtually every able-bodies male, there is still a thriving and prospering Paraguay, culturally and politically distinct from its neighbors and rivals. Same goes for Ethiopia, Philippines, Nepal, Latvia, Ireland, everybody.
Most nations / empires throughout history last about 200-300 years before making a significant change. They may still remain in 'name' but their role / status / function in the geopolitical sphere often is usurped by another. This is primarily a function of economics and trade patterns of the resources considered vital in their respective times, and leadership.
As for the United States, I think it will remain in name but look drastically different in 20-30 years if the negatively leveraged societal model doesn't get corrected (i.e. leadership in desire to increase voting blocs or appeasing funders continues the bifurcation towards influence of money at top and fostering an underclass, through economic sabotage of the productive elements and allowing wealth to accrue to non productive: bankers politicians and all those who use and abuse the amplifying corrupt system of debt based fiat currency.
Resources (assets of tangible value) and who controls them, are where the power resides, as it has throughout history. Oswald Spengler's theory that it goes in cycles is apt. The USA is waning and straining to maintain hegemony on the world economic trade arena by using its military to uphold the 'petrodollar' as the currency of choice for trade. You've seen the gradual departing of large countries from this currency (India - Iran, etc... trading in oil / gold i.e. hard tangible assets) and this will continue. One of the primary reasons the USA has animosity to Iran is their creation (it began in Oct 2009) of an Iraniain bourse exchange. As the 'petrodollar' goes so goes the USA. You'll notice there is not much coverage at all of this issue in the MSM.
Just like Rome when you are spread too thin (131 countries in which the USA has military presence) and you have an increasingly corrupt leadership elitist class (in our case a fascist corporatocracy) eventually it hits the proverbial wall and it all comes crumbling down. Our over inflated sense of hubris while backed up by military - when the military eventually can't be paid - just like Rome.... bye bye Miss American Pie.
The history of the world on this planet is one of cycles based on technological knowledge, use, and control of resources of importance during their time, along with economic trade, sound currency, and cultural homogeniety. Oswald Spengler noted this over 100 years ago.
The USA will probably still remain in name but look drastically different in a generation, if the leadership cannot resolve the negatively leveraged financial (and societal) model. As goes the petrodollar as world currency so goes the USA. The animous toward Iran is really about the challenge to petrodollar via the Oct 2009 creation of the Iranian Oil Bourse. You won't find much reporting on this in MSM. Recently, India and Iran made major trades in non petrodollars as well as few other countries. This makes Wall St - DC crap their pants. See, everyone else knows USA is broke except our leaders keep playiing a shell game to keep things going temporarily. This will eventually end - and not pleasantly. The US Govt since 2009 has purchased 1.4 billion rounds of ammo across different departments as well as 9300 bulletproof checkpoint booths. What does that tell you?
USA leadership has for past 50 years encouraged a negatively leveraged societal model (rewarding the nonproductive underclass via government dependency programs) as the leaders in their drive to appease funders and large government dependent voting blocs let the funders (bankers, corporatocracy) through systemic corruption, co opt the system of economic trade mechanism to enable the wealth to accrue to themselves via all manner of creative fraudulent financial vehicles. We have trillions of debt (700 trillion in derivatives) being passed around like a hot potato throughout the global financial system. The regulators do not regulate, the bankers move in revolving door from Wall St to Government Admin positions (Goldman Sachs: Rubin, Paulson, Geithner, Summers, etc..). We have a corporate fascist state already and trending negatively.
The USA hegemony just like Roman Empire will last only as long as they have sound money (we don't as it is a manipulated debt based fiat currency not pegged to any tangible asset class) which can be paid to military who is 'enforcing' it (we have military presence in over 130 countries). Once the petrodollar goes... it is bye bye Miss American Pie.
In my college government class we were talking about how every major empire in the ancient world has fallen. There is the old saying "Nothing lasts forever" would that still hold true with modern times? Just an interesting question that was brought up, and was wondering everyones input on the subject. Will modern america still be here a few hundred years from now per say, or one day simply be another story of a great empire that was on top of the world then fell? Didnt really know where to post this so i thought history...
My guess would be that it will still be around in "a few hundred years." That does not mean, of course, that it will bear a great deal of resemblance to the present U.S. I really doubt that the U.S. that I grew up in and have as part of my mental equipment has much in common with that of the slave-owning aristocratics, merchants and lawyers who redesigned America in 1787. But, so what?
Maybe the U.S. of 2100 or so will be as proud of its Hispanic elements as its colonial English ones, and the immigrant waves of later decades. Perhaps it will be very chummy with Central and South American republics of Spanish heritage, and desperately trying to compete with Brazil for leadership of the Western Hemisphere. Maybe the European ties will be a thing of the past. But, so what?
I agree the structure will remain. In a couple of hundred years it will still be called the same unless some enormous disastor befalls the world, like a crushing depression or the depletion of one of those things we think will last forever. Areas may break off before that with different interests. But the titles and structure will be all. I agree with other posters that we are moving into a state of two classes, the haves and have nots. Each will have its own strata, some have nots having more than others and a virtual gentry at the top, but it will not be the place we know. We may also still have a paper copy of things like the bill of rights, but if any of them still apply to anyone other than the top of the cream is doubtful.
I don't see it being a world power in the way it is now. That era is already slipping. Maybe it will be a source of soldiers for hire, as a way out for the poor. I'm divided on if technology will be star trek or some utterly stagnet layer of things old which others have shipped away. There will still be the great capacity to produce food, and that may become the largest export, given the labor would be available to support a large agricultural economy.
Every nation has a curve for its rise, peeminance and decline. Some took centuries. Some were quick. We were among the faster and that means we'll slip away faster too. In the end, I see areas breaking off into their own smaller, balcanized states.
The real question, I believe, is how deeply American values and practices will be ingrained as a true global culture emerges.
Now don't start ranting, Billy-Bob; I'm not implying that some Absolutely-Politically-Correct "better way" will be formulated and imposed by a World Government run by a clique of European academics. I'm suggesting that as, for example, with the current PANAMAX project (widening and deepening the Panama Canal) internaional capital will provide more of the funding and participate in the determination of uniform technical and other standards.
Within that framework, I expect some fluctuations in statuis among the nation-states, as in the former Yugoslavia, or the Czech-Slovak "divorce", for example, but the transitions should be increasingly peaceful, and most major participants will retaiin their stability.
The American nation is experiencing increasing fragmentary pressure right now due to the red/blue conflict, but we would have to face much more before dissolution of the union would have any broad-based appeal, and the granting of greater autonomy within, as currently umder way in Great Britain, is another possibility.
Most of us recognize that we have far too much to lose.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 09-18-2012 at 02:48 AM..
The demise of America is much more eminent than most realize. I give it to next Tuesday.
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