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What does everyone here think about the possibility of a German-Russian Alliance being created before World War I?
Personally, I think that such a move could have been very beneficial for Germany (probably much more so than the path which it pursued under Kaiser Wilhelm II in real life). It would have created a huge alliance (let's call it the Alliance of the Two Emperors) in Europe which would have been very hard for other European Great Powers to deal with, especially in the long-run. Such a move could have prevented the outbreak of World War I (and thus, the outbreaks of World War II and of the Cold War as well, in addition to preventing all of the killings and genocides which occurred as a result of these things), since it would have been pretty hard for other European countries to form an alliance which actually had a decent chance of defeating Germany and Russia combined in a war, especially over the long-term.
Both Germany and Russia were industrializing (in Germany's case, very rapidly) and their huge populations were growing very quickly. Germany could have helped Russia industrialize, develop, and urbanize quicker, as well as to dramatically strengthen its military. Meanwhile, Russia could have provided Germany with huge amounts of manpower for their alliance (in the event of a war).
Germany and Russia did not have many directly competing interests--Germany was primarily interested in imperialism in Africa and in East Asia and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, Russia was primarily interested in Central Asia, China, the Balkans, and the Middle East. Likewise, both Germany and Russia were monarchies where the monarchs still held a lot of power, as well as Great Powers which sought to increase their power and/or influence.
As for a possible way for such a scenario to occur, here is one:
Prince Wilhelm (the future Kaiser Wilhelm II in real life) is killed in a horse-riding accident in 1879. In 1888, upon the death of Kaiser Frederick III of Germany, his son (Wilhelm's younger brother) Prinz Heinrich becomes Kaiser Heinrich I of Germany. Heinrich was probably less brash, impetuous, and reckless than Wilhelm, and thus, he pursues better policies as German Kaiser. In foreign policy, Heinrich continues having advocates of realpolitik (Otto von Bismarck and other similar individuals) serve as Chancellor. Thus, Germany continues Bismarck's balancing act between Austria and Russia for a longer time period. Eventually, when "push comes to shove", Kaiser Heinrich (unlike Wilhelm in real life) chooses Russia due to a belief in realpolitik and decided to create and sign a German-Russian Alliance (probably sometime between 1900 and 1920). Austria feels alienated and upset by this move, but unlike Russia, its power and influence in Europe is declining, and its internal ethnic tensions prevent it from becoming too aggressive against either Germany or Russia after the German-Russian Alliance is created and signed.
This seems pretty realistic, correct? If not, then this can be modified/revised.
Perhaps not too unreasonable. A newer German generation might have seen opportunity in the dissolution of the Habsburg empire to complete German unification (as Hitler of course did with the 1938 Anschluss), and let Hungary be a buffer state against the Balkans. It would be difficult to see Britain, France, and especially Italy as friends of the territorial integrity of the Habsburgs, and easy to see such an alliance joining Italy in a partition of Cisleithania like Poland a century before. Poland might have re-emerged anyway in smaller form, as a Russian Empire with Galicia included would not make it more digestible.
2. A newer German generation might have seen opportunity in the dissolution of the Habsburg empire to complete German unification (as Hitler of course did with the 1938 Anschluss),
3. and let Hungary be a buffer state against the Balkans.
4. It would be difficult to see Britain, France, and especially Italy as friends of the territorial integrity of the Habsburgs, and easy to see such an alliance joining Italy in a partition of Cisleithania like Poland a century before.
5. Poland might have re-emerged anyway in smaller form, as a Russian Empire with Galicia included would not make it more digestible.
1. Good.
2. Yes and No. The German people? Very possibly. The leaders of the German Empire? Possibly not; after all, these areas had an overwhelmingly Catholic population, and the leaders of the German Empire weren't too fond of having many Catholics inside of their territory.
A more likely scenario, in my honest opinion, would be Germany creating a puppet state or two out of the German-majority parts of Austria-Hungary and then slowly and gradually annexing these puppet states into Germany piece by piece (rather than all at once).
3. I'm not sure if Germany would have needed a buffer state in the Balkans in this scenario, but it could have been useful to have one just in case.
4. I agree with your points about Italy. In regards to the U.K. and France, I think that they (especially France) might hope that the Austro-Hungarian Empire continues to exist for as long as possible in order to try serving as a counterweight to Germany and Russia (after all, France was hostile to Germany since 1870-1871). However, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was probably going to collapse sooner or later in this scenario. After all, the Ausgleich (which was renewed every ten years) wasn't going to last forever due to rising nationalism, and the one man who held the Austro-Hungarian Empire together successfully was Emperor Franz Joseph. Once Franz Joseph passes away, the Austro-Hungarian Empire would probably break-up and possibly even descend into civil war pretty quickly, regardless of whether or not other European powers want this to happen or not.
5. Maybe in the long(er) run, though Russia would probably still be able to keep control of Poland for a while in this scenario. After all, it had 100+ million (and later 150+ million) people while Poland had, like what, 20-30 million people? Also, in this scenario, Germany might have helped Russia deal with any problems and troubles in Poland if necessary.
For the record, I also want to point out that some Germans might have had anti-Slav(ic) views in the late 19th and/or in the early 20th centuries. However, considering that Germany managed to be allied with Russia in parts of the 1870s and 1880s, and considering that Kaiser Heinrich could present a German-Russian alliance as beneficial to Germany and to German interests, I don't think that such an alliance would have been too much of a problem or liability had it occurred.
Oh, and there might have very well been wars in Europe in this scenario, but these wars would have probably been more localized, rather than continent-wide throughout Europe.
The Russians seemed to be more heavy-handed towards their "Slav brothers" the Poles, than the Austrians who after all shared their Latin rite Catholicism and Latin alphabet. The Jews certainly chose sides with the Austrians vs. the Russians, too. Congress Poland with Galicia added might have become in the Russian Empire something like Serbia was vis-a-vis the Turks, perhaps initially with boundaries like the WW2-era "Generalgouvernment" since eastern Galicia was certainly more Russophilic. If two out of three of the dynasties had survived perhaps 20th century Europe would have been spared the industrial scale ethnic cleansing and genocide of Hitler and Stalin.
A smaller European war of the Habsburg succession would have been likely but also would have been less likely to involve Britain and France and certainly less likely to involve the USA. Maybe the USA without two bouts of war-inspired reaction would have become more democratic-socialist since France and Germany were moving in that direction anyway.
It's all about Austro-Hungary and the Ottomans vis-a-vis the Balkans. Resolve how Austro-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire dissolve and the shape of the fall-out in the Balkans and then you can answer whether or not a German-Russian alliance could have possibly worked. Further, the alliance is not in the interest of Russia unless Germany grants them major concessions of territory along the Med for those "unblockadable" warm water ports the Russians have always wanted. Of course, that would mean that Germany would sell out AH to the Russians. It would also make Russia far more powerful and see them move into territories that Germany has always seen as part of their sphere.
So, resolve exactly why Germany would sell out AH to Russia (including the dismantling of AH) and in turn make Russia vastly more powerful.
What does everyone here think about the possibility of a German-Russian Alliance being created before World War I? Personally, I think that such a move could have been very beneficial for Germany (probably much more so than the path which it pursued under Kaiser Wilhelm II in real life). It would have created a huge alliance (let's call it the Alliance of the Two Emperors) in Europe which would have been very hard for other European Great Powers to deal with, especially in the long-run. Such a move could have prevented the outbreak of World War I (and thus, the outbreaks of World War II and of the Cold War as well, in addition to preventing all of the killings and genocides which occurred as a result of these things), since it would have been pretty hard for other European countries to form an alliance which actually had a decent chance of defeating Germany and Russia combined in a war, especially over the long-term.
To start, I would have to say that your alternative scenario appears somewhat flawed, in so far as it seems predicated on the belief that actions taken by the Germans, or more specifically the Kaiser, were solely responsible for the hostility that existed between Russia and Germany just prior to World War I. It is true there were those within the German government and military that believed Russia posed a serious future threat to the survival of Germany. However, as I will try to demonstrate further on in my post, a good portion of this could and should be placed directly at the feet of the Russians themselves. They were not simply helpless bystanders who had no control over the events that would eventually plunge their country into a devastating war. They, like the Germans, could have made other choices too. But by 1914, those who believed that Germany and Russia could peacefully co-exist were a distinct minority and their calls to follow a different path drowned out by the rattling of sabers.
Case in point is Peter Durnovo, a well respected Tsarist government official who, in February 1914, wrote a memorandum to Nicholas II which advocated dissolving Russia’s alliances with France and Britain in favor of closer ties with Germany. Durnovo believed that continued participation in the Triple Entente would guarantee war between Russia and Germany. And because Britain was primarily a sea power, the only way they could defeat Germany was by having land based allies, like Russia, do the bulk of the fighting for them. In this he was correct because British government documents from this period clearly state that Britain would commit only “limited” resources on land “because Russia would crush Germany from the east”. War with Germany, Durnovo cautioned, would not bring glory and peace to Russia but instead, revolution. Interestingly, Durnovo’s memorandum was found among the Tsar’s personal papers after the war. One can only wonder how different things might have been had he heeded Durnovo’s warning and pursued peace, rather than listen to the Germanophobes in his court who saw war as the only answer.
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Originally Posted by Futurist110
Both Germany and Russia were industrializing (in Germany's case, very rapidly) and their huge populations were growing very quickly. Germany could have helped Russia industrialize, develop, and urbanize quicker, as well as to dramatically strengthen its military. Meanwhile, Russia could have provided Germany with huge amounts of manpower for their alliance (in the event of a war).
German banks had been investing heavily in Russia for decades prior to 1914. German industry viewed Russia as a nearly limitless source of customers for their products. This began to change however in 1887 when Russian nationalists forced Tsar Alexander III to abandon the “Three Emperors’ League” which they believed, among other things, kept Russia in lock-step with German foreign policy aims, thus restricting Russia’s ability to make decisions which served her best interests. This was followed by the imposition of high tariffs on imported goods and restrictions on foreign ownership of property in Russia, all of which made German investors nervous to the point where they began to put their money elsewhere. The chief beneficiaries of this shift were the French, who not only began to pour money into Russian industry but also expanded their influence in Russian military circles with the direct intent of building an anti-German alliance with Russia. This prospect led to the belief in Germany that, as a counterbalance, maintaining strong military ties with Austria-Hungary was an absolute necessity.
Relations between Germany and Russia began to thaw again in the 1890’s, and once more German capital was the chief source of funding for the construction of Russian railroads and heavy industry. During this period, Germany actively encouraged Russian expansion into Central Asia and toward the Pacific Ocean. The resulting inroads made by Russia in Manchuria and Korea raised the hackles of the Japanese and drew increasing opposition from the British, which from Germany’s perspective was not an altogether bad thing. Prospects for a Russo-German alliance seemed very real until the spectacular defeat of Russia at the hands of the Japanese during the war of 1904-05. In an odd twist, Russia blamed Germany for this loss. German support of Russian moves into Asia was seen as part of a larger plot to weaken Russia by bringing her into conflict with the Japanese, who at the time were allied with the British. This, followed by Russia standing with Britain and France against Germany during the First Moroccan Crisis of 1905, further soured relations between the two countries and led to stronger Russian ties with Britain and France.
This cooling then warming of relations with Germany continued until 1913. By this point, Germany had captured nearly 40% of Russia’s foreign trade. Increasingly, Russian business people began to criticize the existing trade agreements with Germany, claiming that Russia was nothing more than an economic colony of Germany. They viewed this dependency as a major impediment to the expansion of the Russian economy overall and urged the Russian government to rectify the situation immediately, even if that meant going to war. Anti-German sentiment became a staple in Russian newspapers and high tariffs were once more placed on imported goods in an effort to punish German exporters. The Russian government even went so far as to award contracts to British and French manufacturers over German ones, despite the fact these bids were always higher than those from the German companies.
The final blow to any chance of improved Russo-German relations took place in November 1913 when it was learned that a German officer, Liman von Sanders, was going to be appointed commander of a Turkish army corps based along the Straits that ultimately connect the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea. The specter of Germany controlling this waterway which was considered so vital both economically and militarily to the Russian Empire drew loud and furious diplomatic protests from Russia. This move in Turkey coupled with Germany’s continued support of Austrian claims to a “sphere of influence” in the Balkans led to calls for a foreign policy shift in Russia, the goal of which should be “to break that tightening Teutonic ring around us which threatens Russia and the whole of Slavdom with fatal consequences”. The best way to achieve this was seen as strengthening the anti-German alliance with France even further and reaching a similar, formal agreement with Britain. This was music to the French government’s ears, to the point that the French army chief of staff, Joseph Joffre, through his contacts in the Russian General Staff, openly urged the launching of a combined, pre-emptive military strike aimed at destroying Germany. Unfortunately for Joffre, the Russians were not in a position to take part in such an effort at that time. Regardless, Joffre would continue to try and persuade the Russians of the necessity of taking pre-emptive action along with France right up until the actual outbreak of war in August 1914.
As you can see, Germany did in fact do precisely what you are advocating in your alternative scenario. But political, economic, and even military interests within Russia itself, as well as outside influence from France were the biggest impediment to establishing any sort of consistent, long term alliance with Germany, and not the other way around.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Futurist110
Germany and Russia did not have many directly competing interests--Germany was primarily interested in imperialism in Africa and in East Asia and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, Russia was primarily interested in Central Asia, China, the Balkans, and the Middle East.
This is not exactly true. The Balkans for instance were of considerable importance to Germany, especially after the First Balkan War of 1912-13. Russia had actively encouraged the formation of the so-called “Balkan League” of Serbia, Bulgaria, Montenegro, and Greece to make war against the Ottoman Empire to force the Turks out of Europe once and for all. Not only did Serbia emerge from this conflict as a strong regional power, it also became a symbol of hope for the Slavs of southeastern Europe who sought independence from Austrian rule. This put Russia in a position where they could use Serbia to spearhead the cause of Slavic nationalism with the ultimate goal being the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Russia could then move in to pick up the pieces, annexing the territory it wanted then forming Russian controlled Slav puppet states from the remainder. When all was said and done, Germany would be completely isolated, with a hostile France to the west and an even larger and more powerful Russia to the east. So even though Germany had no historic interest in the Balkans, it had no choice but to support Austrian interests there in order to preserve the integrity and Great Power status of its only European ally.
As for the Middle East, German interests were in conflict with Russian interests there as well. The Ottoman Empire, though weak, still controlled a vast amount of territory that stretched from the eastern Mediterranean all the way to the Arabian Peninsula. While even the Turks considered this part of their empire to be nothing more than a sleepy backwater of no particular interest, their German allies saw an opportunity. They proposed the construction of a railway that would run from Berlin all the way to Baghdad, with a connection to the port of Basra on the Persian Gulf. Not only would this allow Germany direct access to the oil riches of Iraq, it would also provide the Germans with the means to ship goods to and from their African and Asian colonies as well as the rest of the world, with the added bonus of being able to bypass the British controlled Suez Canal.
While development of this railway was met initially with studied disinterest by Britain and France, it set off alarm bells in Russia, especially given that it would eventually run to the Persian frontier. Since the latter part of the 19th Century, Russia had been slowly expanding into northern Persia as well as encroaching upon Turkish territory in the Caucasus. The native inhabitants of these newly acquired borderlands soon became an endless source of headaches for the Russians. To the Russians, the continuous bouts of unrest in these territories were the direct result of Turkish agitation undertaken at the prompting of their German allies. A railway running in proximity to this already unstable region could potentially allow the rapid mobilization and deployment of forces hostile to Russia near its borders. In fact the Russians were so concerned by this prospect that a portion of the railway was actually diverted to the southwest of its original path after Russia lodged strenuous protests in Berlin and Constantinople over the line being too close to the Caucasus. The Russians went a step further in 1906 when they told the Germans that they would “allow” the railway to be built as long as the Germans promised not to build a single rail line in Persia.
So although you are correct that Germany and Russia did not have many direct competing interests overall, the ones that did exist (the Balkans, Turkey, and the Middle East) were significant enough to leave open the possibility of armed conflict between the two countries in the future, unless they were able to come to terms with each other in the meantime.
Germany, Austria and Russia did not have much in common from the beginning and it was hard to maintain their alliance under Bismarck when disagreements occurred. The Treaty of Berlin orchestrated by Bismarck that took back some of the spoils of Russia's victory over the Turks and the increased strength of Gemany in the 1880s made a Russia nervous,therefore, alliance with France convenient. Bismarck picked Austria over Russia. The seeds of an ominous future WW1 for Germany were planted. To Bismarck, Austria was autocratic, had a German population, and was next door. They had more in common. Russia was big and powerful, despite being backward. Bismarck did not want to be in Russia's shadow in terms of foreign policy. He was angry that the Russians were not more appreciative of German efforts to broker a deal ending the Russian Turkish war. He felt a united Germany and Austria would prevent Russia from ever attacking, maintain German independence and be powerful enough to attract Great Britian in an alliance against Russia and scare off France from joining.
Last edited by jobseeker2013; 12-12-2013 at 09:42 PM..
Oh, and there might have very well been wars in Europe in this scenario, but these wars would have probably been more localized, rather than continent-wide throughout Europe.
I think that is what Bismarck wanted before Kaiser Willie.
Without reading all these long and, very likely, pithy comments, I don't agree with the contention that Germany had no interest in the Balkans. Germany's key ally in Europe was the Austrian-Hungarian Empire, which was highly involved in the Balkans. What's more, Germany also had a very key interest in sustain the Ottoman Turks, who were natural opponents of the Russian aspirations for a warm water port. Witness the national prestige and fortune invested in the Baghdad railway, intended to give Germany a permanent naval presence in the Persian Gulf and, ultimately, the Indian Ocean.
All that being said, I don't believe the Russians and Germans had any kind of mutual interests in the region. Meanwhile, the Russians had a very keen interest in containing what they saw as an expansionist German state which abutted their territory of Poland and the Baltic, which explains their alliance with France.
To be sure, the natural allies of Germany would have been Great Britain. In fact, for years, relations between the Germans and British were rather convivial given their entwined royal families and continental interests. But, in probably the dumbest geopolitical blunder of the time, Kaiser Wilhelm II wanted a big navy, never fully understanding that such a fleet posed an existential threat to the British. The resulting arms race forced the British to rethink the continental balance of power and throw their hand in with the French and Russians. Robert Massie does a splendid job detailing this with his book Dreadnought.
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