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In answer to the original question of what would have happened if the U.S. didn't drop the Atomic bombs, we know what was in planning.
The actual invasion of Japan was scheduled for November and before that the British wanted to have a combined overland and Naval attack to take back Hong Kong. No one has mentioned this or the estimated casualties from that effort.
Actually, it's been mentioned in several posts. My contention is that such an invasion was unnecessary--we could have left the Japanese licking their wounds. They were already in the process of retreat.
Actually, it's been mentioned in several posts. My contention is that such an invasion was unnecessary--we could have left the Japanese licking their wounds. They were already in the process of retreat.
They were not in retreat. We ended up fighting so close to Japan because we pushed them back that far. Part of it was their belief system. They would not retreat or surrender when their positions were no longer defend able. The "Banzai" charge while frightening wasn't alway a good idea against machine guns. So their code of Bushido which worked to keep moral up, often had poor tactical outcomes for them. This is why out of thousands of men defending an island, only a few would survive. We overwhelmed them with firepower during the island hopping champaign.
If the Japanese were left alone and the war were to just stop, much of Asia would have still been left in their hands. The Japanese felt they knew what was best for Asian countries and when all of Asia was under their control these countries would realize that. They had a very radical way of thinking.
Here is a review of an interesting book, written 17 years ago, which sheds light on the contrast between the American and Japanese view of economic development. While it does not answer the OP question, it may color the presumptions of what the Japanese would have done had events followed a different course.
Ok here's my take:
every division in every allied country that could be mobilised would. Also divisions from any former axis countries would who wished to fight for the allies would also join the attack. the Japanese would fight to the last man woman or child in defence of their homeland. it would have been butchery. so we nuked the heck outta two cities, it is much more prefrable than something twice as bad as the Somme in a country the size of Japan. the whole thing would have been an atrocity. I mean this is coming from the guy who thinks we should have ignored the German offers for surrender at the end of WW1
They were not in retreat. We ended up fighting so close to Japan because we pushed them back that far. Part of it was their belief system. They would not retreat or surrender when their positions were no longer defend able. The "Banzai" charge while frightening wasn't alway a good idea against machine guns. So their code of Bushido which worked to keep moral up, often had poor tactical outcomes for them. This is why out of thousands of men defending an island, only a few would survive. We overwhelmed them with firepower during the island hopping champaign.
If the Japanese were left alone and the war were to just stop, much of Asia would have still been left in their hands. The Japanese felt they knew what was best for Asian countries and when all of Asia was under their control these countries would realize that. They had a very radical way of thinking.
Asia, though, was none of our business. Back to the isolationism argument.
Asia, though, was none of our business. Back to the isolationism argument.
Unfortunately, as the only untouched superpower in 1945 isolationism wasn't an option. You don't look at the overall geopolitical issues in your arguments. That goes back to my "benevolent Nazi Germany" comment the other day.
Had we not nuked Japan, it's pretty clear at least one thing would have happened. Every single allied prisoner of war in Japan would have probably died - regardless of which alternative (to the atomic bomb) we chose. If we had chosen to starve the Japanese into submission, the POW's would have died. Had we chosen to invade Japan, the POW's would have died - along with hundreds of thousands of Japanese and a whole lot of invasion troops. There is no alternative that would not have led to hundreds of thousands of Japanese deaths.
Had we simply done nothing, the POW's would have died, Japan would have rebuilt it's infrastructure and it's military, and the militarists in control of Japan would have resumed the hostilities as soon as they were able.
Nuking Japan was frankly the only option available to quickly end the war. And even that almost didn't work.
For starters i would like to say that i have not read all 48 pages, so if someone already said this then i am sorry for bringing it back up...
I believe the dropping of both bombs were necessary in not only a quick end to the war, but to save lives before and after the war. The dropping of both bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki instilled a fear of the destructive power that those bombs (which are weak by modern standards). That fear i believe made the cold war a safer time. If there was no fear of them, then the cold war could have very well been the last war for on earth. It made leaders reluctant to use nuclear bombs.
Without this reluctance who knows what would have happened, but i firmly believe the dropping of those 2 "small" (destructive power and amount they killed) bombs on japan saved the world from an Atomic war. So the loss of an estimated 90,000 to 140,000 at Hiroshima and 80,000 at Nagasaki, cannot compare to the amount saved during the inevitable "hot" atomic war between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (for those that dont know, this is Russia)....
In conclusion i would say this not only saved more lives during the war (on both sides) but even after the war (every person that is alive today)
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