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Old 09-02-2015, 04:43 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Basically, Pyotr Durnovo (a prominent pre-World War I Imperial Russian politician and government official) wrote a memorandum to Tsar Nicholas II of Russia in early 1914, several months before World War I broke out.

This memorandum ended up being extremely accurate in regards to many events which occurred after this memorandum was written. In turn, this is why exactly I am sharing an English translation of this memorandum with you here--indeed, here you go:

http://novaonline.nvcc.edu/eli/evans...ts/Durnovo.pdf

Anyway, does anyone here have any thoughts on this memorandum?
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Old 09-02-2015, 06:46 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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From the linked article:

Quote:
But in the event of defeat, the possibility of which in a
struggle with a foe like Germany cannot be overlooked, social revolution in its most extreme form is
inevitable.
As has already been said, the trouble will start with the blaming of the Government for all disasters. In
the legislative institutions a bitter campaign against the Government will begin, followed by
revolutionary agitations throughout the country, with Socialist slogans, capable of arousing and rallying
the masses, beginning with the division of the land and succeeded by a division of all valuables and
property. The defeated army, having lost its most depend
able men, and carried away by the tide of
primitive peasant desire for land, will find itself too
demoralized to serve as a bulwark of law and order.
The legislative institutions and the intellectual opposition parties, lacking real authority in the eyes of the
people, will be powerless to stem the popular tide, aroused by themselves, and Russia will be flung into
hopeless anarchy, the issue of which cannot be foreseen
Pyotr Durnovo gets it right in every particular.

Thanks for finding this, it was an incredibly impressive analysis of the situation, such specific accuracy in forecasting the future is not frequently found.
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Old 09-02-2015, 11:34 PM
 
Location: Maryland about 20 miles NW of DC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
From the linked article:



Pyotr Durnovo gets it right in every particular.

Thanks for finding this, it was an incredibly impressive analysis of the situation, such specific accuracy in forecasting the future is not frequently found.
I wonder how quick Durnovo was taken by the Cheka to the Moscow/Tver station to board a train to his new place of residence 7500 miles to the East of St. Petersburg?
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Old 09-02-2015, 11:59 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mwruckman View Post
I wonder how quick Durnovo was taken by the Cheka to the Moscow/Tver station to board a train to his new place of residence 7500 miles to the East of St. Petersburg?
Mr. Durnovo died in 1915, two years before the Bolsheviks seized power in Russia.
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Old 09-03-2015, 03:00 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mwruckman View Post
I wonder how quick Durnovo was taken by the Cheka to the Moscow/Tver station to board a train to his new place of residence 7500 miles to the East of St. Petersburg?
" Pyotr Durnovo died in September 1915 at his villa in Petrograd. He was the last Russian Imperial Minister of Interior to die from natural causes. His six successors were all assassinated, or murdered during the Red Terror."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyotr_Durnovo

How said for Russia at a time it required decisive, intelligent and forward looking governance it got a weak, *****-whipped and inept Nicholas II.

If the last Czar of all the Russias had given more weight to the advice of men like Pytor Durnovo and others of equal capabilities instead of his family and worst of all the Czarina think of how different things all might be today.

Empress Alexandra had a thing for Queen Marie-Antoinette of France and meanwhile her husband couldn't see his empire was slowly moving in the same direction of pre-revolutionary France; that is he was sitting on a powder keg that was due to explode any minute.

The ones you really feel sorry for are the average Russians. Lenin, Stalin... and now Putin, nothing has really changed *that* much and in some ways are or were worse than anything the Romanovs came up with.
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Old 09-03-2015, 05:29 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BugsyPal View Post
If the last Czar of all the Russias had given more weight to the advice of men like Pytor Durnovo and others of equal capabilities instead of his family and worst of all the Czarina think of how different things all might be today.
Completely agreed. Indeed, it appears to have been a mistake on Nicholas II's part to go to war in 1914 on behalf of Serbia. After all, as Pyotr Durnovo pointed out, Russia didn't have enough railroads for a large-scale war in 1914.
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Old 09-03-2015, 05:52 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Futurist110 View Post
Completely agreed. Indeed, it appears to have been a mistake on Nicholas II's part to go to war in 1914 on behalf of Serbia. After all, as Pyotr Durnovo pointed out, Russia didn't have enough railroads for a large-scale war in 1914.
It seems all war parties massively erred on the strength of Russia in 1914. Including the Russian government they all vastly overestimated Russia military power. I think this was the biggest strategic blunder on all sides going into the war. Out of respect for the Napoleonic wars etc. they all thought that once Russia's army was mobilized it would destroy everything its path. instead it blundered against vastly inferior German troops and then completely imploded.
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Old 09-03-2015, 06:04 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord View Post
It seems all war parties massively erred on the strength of Russia in 1914. Including the Russian government they all vastly overestimated Russia military power. I think this was the biggest strategic blunder on all sides going into the war. Out of respect for the Napoleonic wars etc. they all thought that once Russia's army was mobilized it would destroy everything its path. instead it blundered against vastly inferior German troops and then completely imploded.
Yes, this appears to be correct. However, one could have also looked at the outcomes of the Crimean War and of the Russo-Japanese War and realized that one shouldn't necessary rate Russia's military that highly. After all, the wars with Napoleon occurred a century before World War I broke out.
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Old 09-03-2015, 07:03 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Futurist110 View Post
Yes, this appears to be correct. However, one could have also looked at the outcomes of the Crimean War and of the Russo-Japanese War and realized that one shouldn't necessary rate Russia's military that highly. After all, the wars with Napoleon occurred a century before World War I broke out.
Yes the Russo Japanese war should have been a giveaway. However that was faraway from the mindset of the European leaders.
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Old 09-03-2015, 07:58 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord View Post
Yes the Russo Japanese war should have been a giveaway. However that was faraway from the mindset of the European leaders.
Yes, unfortunately. Indeed, the fact that Russia couldn't even defeat an Asian power should have been enough of a clue to everyone that Russia might not be able to defeat an extremely industrialized European Great Power such as Germany just one decade later. Indeed, when Germans said "Deutschland Uber Alles," you can be extremely sure that they meant it!
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