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Old 02-14-2019, 06:44 PM
 
Location: New Mexico
3,634 posts, read 1,530,582 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by msgsing View Post
I’m not clear in the absence of a Pearl Harbor the US would have declared war on Japan. That would have left America’s strongest overseas outpost untouched and standing firm as a barrier to any attack on the West Coast. The Japanese would have taken the Philippines to incorporate it into their new Empire.


What Imperial Japanese attack on the US West Coast? Who would they have sent? Withdraw IJ Army troops from China or Korea, pack them into troop transports & ship them across the Pacific to the US? & detach destroyers, cruisers, battleships & submarines to escort them? & fuel & food & ammo for the lot? The IJ Army & Navy spent nearly as much time fighting each other - for support, budget, manpower - as they did the Allies.

No, the IJ approach to logistics (& combat medical support, firefighting & combat repair on capital ships, incorporating technical innovations into combat line ships & armies) was horrible. IJ officer sidearms failed in time, because they couldn't get the springs right (lack of the proper grade of steel?).
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Old 02-14-2019, 08:28 PM
 
Location: home...finally, home .
8,207 posts, read 18,242,433 times
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From what I read ( and this might not be true ) it was known by Roosevelt and the Navy commanders that the Japanese were going to attack Pearl Harbor .
Even their approach that day was not a surprise . There were intelligence sources that told FDR that they were on their way.

At that time , America was so anti-war and isolationistic that they needed to be sort of lied into the war. Only a direct attack could and did mobilize
the American people to agree to join the fight against fascism .
__________________
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People may not recall what you said to them, but they will always remember how you made them feel .
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Old 02-15-2019, 12:08 AM
 
Location: Central Washington
629 posts, read 211,573 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nancy thereader View Post
From what I read ( and this might not be true ) it was known by Roosevelt and the Navy commanders that the Japanese were going to attack Pearl Harbor .
Even their approach that day was not a surprise . There were intelligence sources that told FDR that they were on their way.

At that time , America was so anti-war and isolationistic that they needed to be sort of lied into the war. Only a direct attack could and did mobilize
the American people to agree to join the fight against fascism .
No, there was no advance knowledge of the attack. The Japanese ambassador was at the White House for a meeting with secretary of state Cordell Hull when the attack was happening. There was a memo dated December 4 from the Office of Naval Intelligence describing Japanese intelligence gathering, particularly on the west coast, Panama Canal area, and Hawaii. There had been plenty of debate over where Japan might strike first, and most thought the Philippines were a more likely target. Unfortunately the navy was complacent, thinking Hawaii was a safe distance from Japan. Inexplicably, the navy took little interest in what became the blueprint for Pearl Harbor, the Royal Navy torpedo bomber attack on the Italian port of Taranto in November 1940.
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Old 02-15-2019, 05:17 AM
 
Location: SE UK
7,404 posts, read 6,291,678 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike1003 View Post
The French and English would be speaking German
Wrong........the French may be speaking Russian but the English will still be speaking English. The Russians are probably the only one of the Allies that would have eventually defeated Hitler on their own but it would have taken years. Despite a lot of Americans thinking that they somehow came a riding in to 'save the world' the truth is that the Allies needed each other. The Nazis didn't have the power or ability to invade the UK, the UK wouldn't have had the power to invade at Normandy without its Allies and the Americans wouldn't have had the power to invade Normandy without the British...........The Russians would 'probably' (though who knows) have eventually overrun the Nazis but they obviously benefitted ENORMOUSLY by the British and American (Canadian, Australian etc) invasion from the West. Like the Nazis the Russians would have found it nigh on impossible to invade the UK so really the question would have been how far 'West' into war torn Europe the Russians would advance after defeating the Nazis.
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Old 02-15-2019, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Howard County, Maryland
5,259 posts, read 3,364,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by southwest88 View Post
What Imperial Japanese attack on the US West Coast? Who would they have sent? Withdraw IJ Army troops from China or Korea, pack them into troop transports & ship them across the Pacific to the US? & detach destroyers, cruisers, battleships & submarines to escort them? & fuel & food & ammo for the lot? The IJ Army & Navy spent nearly as much time fighting each other - for support, budget, manpower - as they did the Allies.

No, the IJ approach to logistics (& combat medical support, firefighting & combat repair on capital ships, incorporating technical innovations into combat line ships & armies) was horrible. IJ officer sidearms failed in time, because they couldn't get the springs right (lack of the proper grade of steel?).
We Americans only know that the Japanese were incapable of invading the U.S. West Coast through hindsight. At the time, it seemed to us like a very realistic possibility. Certainly, their lack of resources and dysfunctional military culture would have been unknown to nearly all Americans at that time. What we DID know was that they had come out of nowhere to bloody and humble our armed forces -- and there seemed like nothing that would stop them from showing up off the coast of California at any moment.

The poster to whom you were responding was saying that the impetus to declare war on Japan would have been less if they had not attacked Pearl Harbor, because we on the Mainland would have felt more secure with an un-attacked Pearl Harbor standing strong as a bulwark against any potential Japanese aggression. When Pearl Harbor actually was attacked, suddenly the people on the West Coast felt extremely vulnerable.
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Old 02-15-2019, 10:35 AM
 
Location: London
4,012 posts, read 3,456,281 times
Reputation: 1740
The Turning point of WW2 was the Battle of Moscow in Dec 1941. That was when Germany and Japan were doomed.

♦ Japan thought Germany would definitely win defeating the USSR soon
after. The German defeat at Moscow would ensure Germany would not
defeat the USSR.
♦ The Japanese entered WW2 on a presumption they would be linking
up with Germany, transpiring they were alone fighting two massive
powers with another pinning their forces down and eventually fighting
all three. Not what they wanted.

Japan would not attack the British empire, Dutch empire and the US unless Germany declared war on the USA. If Germany said no to declaring war on the USA, Japan would never have attacked and there would be no Pacific war. The two theatres were linked.

Japan did not want to face alone the USA and the British empire. the worst case scenario. And that is what happened. The Germans attempted to get the Japanese to attack the British in the Far East to divert the British away from Europe. The UK was amassing a large air fleet and also had the world's largest navy. They would not sit by for long only fighting in the desert. The reason Germany attacked the USSR was to get their resources to fight the coming air war with the British. The Japanese repeatedly refused to declare war. Only when the Japanese thought the USSR was about to fall they joined in. The USSR kept 40 divisions opposite the Japanese Kwantung army all though WW2. With superior armour to the Japanese.

Japan received assurances from Germany in the Spring of 1941. that they would declare war on the USA. Japan, economically could not sustain war of any length of time against any major power by itself, either the UK or the USA. Especially a war strung over a vast front. They imported most raw materials with their industry primarily artisan based, with little mass production. If going it alone, what attacking the USA and British Empire was to achieve with no back up occupation force at Pearl Harbor defies belief. The Pearl Harbor attack was to fend off the US navy while they gain as much resource rich territory as possible in the south while the USSR threat is moved away from their north in China by the Germans. To Japan the key was the defeat of the USSR, which by Oct/Nov 1941 they thought was a foregone conclusion.

All through WW2 the Soviets had approx 40 divisions (most armoured) in Siberia and the Soviet Far East facing the Japanese. Without Germany fighting the USSR anticipating a quick German win, the Japanese would never had attacked the USA and the British Empire. It was madness to do so unilaterally and would entail certain defeat - even the Japanese knew that.

The Japanese were to eliminate the US Pacific fleet. The US Atlantic fleet would be occupied by the German U-Boats. The carriers got away at Pearl Harbor. If the carriers were sunk, they would not have been on the defensive by June 1942, giving them far more breathing space and lots more with the anticipated defeat of the USSR within months by the Germans. If the US carriers were sunk along with the US Pacific fleet, and the USSR defeated by summer 1942 by the Germans, Japan would be in very strong position.

The Japanese gained far more territory than they gambled on. They were one day away in Singapore from surrendering, but the British beat them to the white flag. They were expecting more protracted battles in Malaya/Burma and even maybe in the Philippines.

Using some common sense tells you the Japanese were not banking on being alone fighting the world's two largest economic powers. They were expecting at least the USSR to be neutralised or eliminated. And then some military aid from the Germans would be nice if it came. The link was enacted with 41 U-Boats operating from Penang. The Germans then would engage the British diverting them away from fighting the Japanese in Burma. Getting rid of the British and the Soviets was a major prize for Japan, and Germany could do the latter and both they thought the former. So was the notion.

Wages of Destruction by Prof Adam Tooze in quotes:

• The tripartite pact was signed in Sept 1940. If one is attacked the
others come to their aid.

• "The real nightmare of German strategy was the possibility that
Japan might come to terms with the United States, leaving Germany
to fight Britain and maybe America alone. To forestall this possibility,
Hitler had offered to declare war on the United States in conjunction
with Japan already in the Spring of 1941."

• Germany had offered to declare war on the US before the June 1941
attack on the USSR.

• "But the Japanese had refused to commit themselves and instead
entered into a last round of negotiations with the USA."

• "It was not until October and the fall of the Konoe government that
Berlin could feel sure that the Japanese-USA talks were going nowhere."

• "When in November 1941 Tokyo began to signal that Japan was about
to commit itself against the West, it was the cause of relief, bordering
on euphoria in Berlin. Finally Hitler and Ribbentrop had the chance to
complete the global strategic alliance they had been hoping for since
1938. And they did not hesitate."

• The Germans immediately started to revise the Tripartite pact, knowing
of the Japanese commitment to war, at the German's insistence.

• "Without prior knowledge of the Japanese timetable for a surprise attack
on Pearl Harbor, Hitler pledged himself to following Japan in a declaration
of war on the United States."

• 7 Dec 1941, Japanese attack the USA at Pearl Harbor and British territories
in Malaya and Hong Kong.

• The amended Tripartite pact was signed by all, between the 7 Dec 1941,
the attacks on the USA and British Empire, and Germany declaring war
on the USA on 11 Dec 1941.

• 11 Dec 1941 Germany declares war on the USA.

Wages of Destruction is clear that the Germans were informed by the Japanese in November 1941 that they were to declare war. The attacks on the US and British Empire was no surprise to Hitler.

Wages of Destruction also states that Germany was repeatedly attempting to get Japan to declare war on the British empire. The Japanese knew exactly what the Germans wanted and what they would do. It all fits.

As it turned out:
♦ The USSR was not defeated and maintained a large army opposite the
Japanese - the Japanese had already been mauled by the Soviets in
Manchuria in 1939.
♦ Japan was facing the worst case scenario, the scenario it feared - fighting
alone against the British empire and USA, the world's two largest economic
superpowers.
♦ This was not in the forecasting. The German army defeated militarily superior
France within weeks and since June 1941 were mauling the USSR so badly it
was obvious to the Japanese in late 1941 the USSR would be defeated.
♦ The week in which the Japanese attacked the USA and British Empire, the
Soviets counter attacked at Moscow with a battering ram of superior T-34
tanks pushing the Germans back taking 30,000 prisoners, so ending any
chance of Germany defeating the USSR in one swoop. A protracted war
against the USSR would ensue.
♦ In Spring 1941, the Germans feared fighting the USA & the British alone - a
worst case scenario for them. They were desperately worse off, fighting the
British, USA and the USSR alone.
♦ If the Soviet counter attack had been one month earlier the Japanese would
not have attacked the British and the USA - and most probably signed a pact
with the USA which was in ongoing talks virtually to the attack on the British,
Dutch and Americans.
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Old 02-15-2019, 10:45 AM
 
11,629 posts, read 17,137,825 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by easthome View Post
Wrong........the French may be speaking Russian but the English will still be speaking English. The Russians are probably the only one of the Allies that would have eventually defeated Hitler on their own but it would have taken years. Despite a lot of Americans thinking that they somehow came a riding in to 'save the world' the truth is that the Allies needed each other. The Nazis didn't have the power or ability to invade the UK, the UK wouldn't have had the power to invade at Normandy without its Allies and the Americans wouldn't have had the power to invade Normandy without the British...........The Russians would 'probably' (though who knows) have eventually overrun the Nazis but they obviously benefitted ENORMOUSLY by the British and American (Canadian, Australian etc) invasion from the West. Like the Nazis the Russians would have found it nigh on impossible to invade the UK so really the question would have been how far 'West' into war torn Europe the Russians would advance after defeating the Nazis.
All the way to the Atlantic.

I doubt the English would want to be staring at that from Dover.

Can't say the view from here would be appealing either.
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Old 02-15-2019, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
10,211 posts, read 8,351,714 times
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The US declared war on both both Japan and Germany. It's hard to imagine the US staying out of a two-front war that threatened Europe and Asia (and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans), even if the Japanese had not attacked Pearl Harbor.

Remember, only England was fighting the Germans and would soon lose to the Japanese in the Pacific. The Russian side of the story is complicated, but the US was also supplying Russia when Hitler invaded that country in June of 1941 and the possibility of a German victory, there, also looked good for a while.
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Old 02-15-2019, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
10,211 posts, read 8,351,714 times
Reputation: 11645
Quote:
Originally Posted by nancy thereader View Post
From what I read ( and this might not be true ) it was known by Roosevelt and the Navy commanders that the Japanese were going to attack Pearl Harbor .
Even their approach that day was not a surprise . There were intelligence sources that told FDR that they were on their way.

At that time , America was so anti-war and isolationistic that they needed to be sort of lied into the war. Only a direct attack could and did mobilize
the American people to agree to join the fight against fascism .
Baloney. If the Americans knew about the Pearl Harbor attack, they probably would have recalled Halsey's carriers and sent those rusty old battleships up North of Hawaii to attack the Japanese force. Instead, Pearl sent out recon aircraft, searching blindly in all the wrong places for the Japanese attack force, which was MIGHTY.

The likely result of that would not have been good for the US.
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Old 02-15-2019, 11:32 AM
 
11,746 posts, read 17,893,894 times
Reputation: 17724
Quote:
Originally Posted by nancy thereader View Post
From what I read ( and this might not be true ) it was known by Roosevelt and the Navy commanders that the Japanese were going to attack Pearl Harbor .
Even their approach that day was not a surprise . There were intelligence sources that told FDR that they were on their way.

At that time , America was so anti-war and isolationistic that they needed to be sort of lied into the war. Only a direct attack could and did mobilize
the American people to agree to join the fight against fascism .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearl_...spiracy_theory

"the Pearl Harbor advance-knowledge conspiracy is considered a fringe theory and is rejected by historians"
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