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Old 02-15-2019, 12:57 PM
 
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I think it would have been over a lot quicker and I might have gotten to know my uncle who was killed on Iwo Jima.
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Old 02-15-2019, 03:07 PM
 
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The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. I watched Animal House.
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Old 02-15-2019, 03:56 PM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bus man View Post
Assume that the history of Japan up to mid-1941 had gone as it actually did. That is, they had already invaded China, and the U.S. had already put its embargo of raw materials on Japan, thus leading the Japanese leadership to prepare to conquer other places to obtain the needed materials. However, let's say they conclude beforehand that there is no way that Japan can defeat the United States. Therefore, they diverge from actual history by deciding that under no circumstances will they attack anything American unless in self defense.

Thus, on December 7th, Japan launches its war of conquest in the Southwest Pacific. British and Dutch territories are attacked and fall. But Hawaii, the Philippines, Guam, and anything else American are completely left alone. American merchant ships are allowed to continue sailing the Pacific without interference. America's naval forces and army bases are left untouched.

How does the war go from here? Does America come to the aid of its European allies and fight on behalf of their conquered territories, or do our isolationist tendencies continue to hold sway? Do we provide material support to China, but don't get militarily involved? Does Japan manage to keep its conquered territories, take their resources for themselves, and decide that they've satisfied their war aims and stop further fighting? Does the Japanese Empire (excuse me, the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere") become a long-term reality, like the British Empire was?

In other words, how would the Pacific War gone if America had not been attacked first?
I would think that we would need guarantees that Australia would be left alone. America was pretty isolationist but I also wonder if we would have let Britain flounder. I think that sooner or later Germany would have provoked us into war by attacking convoys going to Murmansk and Archangel USSR. Had we not been at war would Einstein's letter be enough to create the bomb before Germany got it. Unimpeded by the Japanese could we send supplies to the USSR through Vladivostok. Most of the Soviet armament industry was moved to the Urals.

I don't know if they cover your exact topic but there are two authors that you may want to look into, S. M. Sterling and Harry Turtledove. They are the masters of What if.
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Old 02-15-2019, 04:33 PM
 
Location: New Mexico
3,635 posts, read 1,531,764 times
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Default Lots of long-range planning on IJ's part

Quote:
Originally Posted by bus man View Post
We Americans only know that the Japanese were incapable of invading the U.S. West Coast through hindsight. At the time, it seemed to us like a very realistic possibility. Certainly, their lack of resources and dysfunctional military culture would have been unknown to nearly all Americans at that time. What we DID know was that they had come out of nowhere to bloody and humble our armed forces -- and there seemed like nothing that would stop them from showing up off the coast of California at any moment.

The US had started cracking the Imperial Japanese codes years before the war, as I recall. Although we didn't have the military IJ codes, we did break into the diplomatic codes, & they provided excellent background & war plans - the IJ diplomats were very chatty, & free with their codes.

US military intelligence was certainly aware that IJ had very little sealift, & that the sealift they had was freely conscripted for priority cargoes by the IJ military - mainly to bring in raw materials for the ever-growing military production @ home. IJ always treated their merchant marine badly, & WWII was no different. They didn't start convoying until late, by which time US submarines & surface fleet had destroyed a lot of the existing inadequate IJ sealift.

It wasn't necessary that intel on IJ be widely dispersed in the US - it was important that the relevant military war planners have that information. & we promptly targeted all IJ sealift, wherever found. IJ wasted years, time, manpower, resources chasing chimeras in China. IJ was too effective - there was no Chinese government left to negotiate with, & IJ never could get a definitive surrender out of the ad hoc Chinese governments.

IJ's military did not come out of nowhere - we had troops & observers @ the Boxer Rebellion, observers @ the battle of Tsushima Strait, Port Arthur & various other points. The IJ military were recognized as excellent troops & sailors, especially night fighting @ sea. Their fire control, ranging & discipline were excellent, & in the Boxer Rebellion their troops were praised for their orderly conduct, bravery, & aid to allies.
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Old 02-15-2019, 06:34 PM
 
Location: London
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frihed89 View Post
The US declared war on both both Japan and Germany.
That is news to me.
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Old 02-15-2019, 06:50 PM
 
Location: London
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Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
I also wonder if we would have let Britain flounder.
By the time the USA had boots on the ground against the Axis, Stalingrad had been won and El Alemein had been won. In short the Germans were on the run. Britain was not floundering at any point.
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Old 02-15-2019, 08:12 PM
 
Location: Howard County, Maryland
5,261 posts, read 3,366,942 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
I would think that we would need guarantees that Australia would be left alone.
Good point, I didn't think about Australia. My own personal assumption would be that, under this scenario, Japan would leave Australia alone. Attacking them would serve no useful purpose (provided that Australia remained neutral), and doing so would likely draw the United States into the war. To be sure, Australia was not an American colony. But they were a majority-white country (as was New Zealand), and this fact mattered to the United States. (I have read quotes from senior leaders during the war who discuss America's need to help defend Australia in explicitly racial terms.)
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Old 02-15-2019, 08:21 PM
Status: "POTUS Trump promises - not hot air" (set 9 days ago)
 
Location: New York Area
14,342 posts, read 5,663,495 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bus man View Post
. To be sure, Australia was not an American colony. But they were a majority-white country (as was New Zealand), and this fact mattered to the United States. (I have read quotes from senior leaders during the war who discuss America's need to help defend Australia in explicitly racial terms.)
Why inject race into the discussion? Australia was and is an English-speaking country, and a core ally. Think Britain, Canada, and in modern times Israel.
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Old 02-15-2019, 10:32 PM
 
725 posts, read 1,374,715 times
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Eh, a more interesting question to me would be if Germany would have continued with Russia as an ally instead of attacking it. Would most of Europe still be under Nazi control? Is there a bigger mistake that could have been made by the Axis Powers?
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Old 02-16-2019, 04:12 AM
 
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
10,218 posts, read 8,355,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John-UK View Post
That is news to me.
https://learningenglish.voanews.com/...28/116132.html
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