Second Thoughts on Reagan

[majoun]

Originally Posted by Icy Tea

I think the next president around will be closer to Reagan, we'll need somebody to get americans feeling good again and improve our national outlook. Obama is a mix of Bush 2, Carter and Nixon, IMO. Not very impressive.

Obama's the closest president to Reagan since Reagan himself, even more than Clinton. He's a superb communicator who has been able to remain popular even when some of his policies are not that popular, and like Reagan sounds eminently reasonable. His politics differ from Reagan's obviously, but his style is rather similar.

Mitt Romney is under the delusion that he's Reagan, but is not going to have any more success with "Reagan II" than Walter Mondale had with "FDR II".

The closest current political figure to Nixon in personality, temperament, and ruthless pragmatism: Rudy Giuliani. I suspect that his victory in the 2010 NY gubernatorial election will cause him to run for the presidency again in 2012.

[Dwatted Wabbit]

Originally Posted by majoun

Obama's the closest president to Reagan since Reagan himself, even more than Clinton. He's a superb communicator who has been able to remain popular even when some of his policies are not that popular, and like Reagan sounds eminently reasonable. His politics differ from Reagan's obviously, but his style is rather similar.

Mitt Romney is under the delusion that he's Reagan, but is not going to have any more success with "Reagan II" than Walter Mondale had with "FDR II".

The closest current political figure to Nixon in personality, temperament, and ruthless pragmatism: Rudy Giuliani. I suspect that his victory in the 2010 NY gubernatorial election will cause him to run for the presidency again in 2012.

I beg to differ on the "superb communicator" point.
The fawning, grovelling, "thrill going up my leg" lapdog media say BHO is a "great orator."
But if one is capable of somewhat objective thought and observation, one will see the guy is a lightweight even compared to Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckleberry.

He cannot string more than three words together--more often two--without a teleprompter. When speaking unscripted and unaided, he wanders as if he were feeble minded.
He is hardly a great orator. RWR was a trained actor and public speaker, with decades of experience. BHO clearly has had minimal training in public speaking.

His style is hardly reminiscent of Reagan. Reagan, for one thing, had an excellent sense of humor. For another, he was an old fashioned patriot. Obama is surrounded by people who behave like and have historys like communist cell members. They couldn't be more different from Reagan's associates.

Rudy is just democrat lite. He will do or say whatever it will take to get elected as dogcatcher, governor, or president. He missed his chance in the senate race vs. Hillary. I doubt he'll make a comeback.
Mitt is another all-things-to-all-people politician. That's why he didn't win in 2008, he lost to a McDemocrat lite.
People are ready for someone like Sarah Palin. Not much of a speaker, but unlike anyone else in public view she has all the hallmarks of being a real person rather than someone who has subverted their entire adult life to the pursuit of power and influence.

I'd take a good look at John Bolton for 2012. IMO the first quality any candidate should have is absolutely no desire to be president. That largely proves their sanity.
The second quality is they should be able to pass a Top Secret FBI/military background check. Neither Obama nor either Clinton, nor probably GW Bush, could have passed that.
At least McCain could probably pass, despite his wishy-washy semi-pro-USA policies.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by Dwatted Wabbit

People are ready for someone like Sarah Palin.

People are ready for Sarah Palin to get off the national stage and fade into obscurity. The GOP is not fond of her because they saw her as sinking the ticket, and Dems despise her. As soon as she was picked, Obama essentially won.

re: Rudy, like Nixon he's ruthless as ruthless can be. Being governor of New York historically has automatically been a qualification for the US presidency. Think of how many governors of NY have been presidential candidates, and many others would have been if they'd had the desire to be.

The potential GOP 2012 candidate that Dems fear most is not Rudy, nor Romney, and definitely not Palin. The GOP candidate that Dems fear most in 2012 is Charlie Crist. If McCain had picked Crist as VP instead of Palin, he would have gotten more votes and might have even won, as Crist is a superb speaker and comes across as very presidential. If something had happened to McCain, Crist would have inspired confidence, while Palin inspired enough fear to get Republicans to vote for Obama. He also has a track record of getting Dem and independent votes as governor of a swing state with a large number of electoral votes. Palin, OTOH, is from a state with a tiny population which is not reflective of the US as a whole. Not that being from a small state hurt Bill Clinton, but Arkansas has a huge population compared to Alaska's, and Palin certainly doesn't have Bill's speaking gifts nor his personality.

Not much of a speaker

I would hope that T&A aren't qualifications to be president. I would say the same if the Dems nominated a bimbo.

but unlike anyone else in public view she has all the hallmarks of being a real person rather than someone who has subverted their entire adult life to the pursuit of power and influence.

You mean like on the Jerry Springer show?
Palin as a presidential candidate would mean that Obama would get reelected no matter how hard he screwed up.
If you want the GOP to nominate a woman, why not Condi Rice rather than Palin? At least she's intelligent and able to string a sentence together. Palin when asked about Supreme Court cases couldn't even think of any cases other than Roe v. Wade, even cases involving Alaska.

I'd take a good look at John Bolton for 2012. IMO the first quality any candidate should have is absolutely no desire to be president.

Someone with no desire to be president doesn't run in the first place. Funny you'd be down on Rudy but not down on Bolton since they are quite close.

The second quality is they should be able to pass a Top Secret FBI/military background check. Neither Obama nor either Clinton, nor probably GW Bush, could have passed that.

By virtue of being US Senators, Obama and Hillary would have passed that. I have no reason to think Bill Clinton couldn't have passed that, and George W. would have passed that due to Daddy's influence. Besides, that's not written anywhere in the Constitution, and I've never even heard that proposed as an Amendment.

In any case, I was really trying to keep the discussion nonpartisan. I wasn't slamming Reagan, for example, and did slam Mondale. Unfortunately you don't seem able to follow a nonpartisan discussion.

[eatfastnoodle]

Originally Posted by majoun

People are ready for Sarah Palin to get off the national stage and fade into obscurity. The GOP is not fond of her because they saw her as sinking the ticket, and Dems despise her. As soon as she was picked, Obama essentially won.

re: Rudy, like Nixon he's ruthless as ruthless can be. Being governor of New York historically has automatically been a qualification for the US presidency. Think of how many governors of NY have been presidential candidates, and many others would have been if they'd had the desire to be.

The potential GOP 2012 candidate that Dems fear most is not Rudy, nor Romney, and definitely not Palin. The GOP candidate that Dems fear most in 2012 is Charlie Crist. If McCain had picked Crist as VP instead of Palin, he would have gotten more votes and might have even won, as Crist is a superb speaker and comes across as very presidential. If something had happened to McCain, Crist would have inspired confidence, while Palin inspired enough fear to get Republicans to vote for Obama. He also has a track record of getting Dem and independent votes as governor of a swing state with a large number of electoral votes. Palin, OTOH, is from a state with a tiny population which is not reflective of the US as a whole. Not that being from a small state hurt Bill Clinton, but Arkansas has a huge population compared to Alaska's, and Palin certainly doesn't have Bill's speaking gifts nor his personality.




I would hope that T&A aren't qualifications to be president. I would say the same if the Dems nominated a bimbo.



You mean like on the Jerry Springer show?
Palin as a presidential candidate would mean that Obama would get reelected no matter how hard he screwed up.
If you want the GOP to nominate a woman, why not Condi Rice rather than Palin? At least she's intelligent and able to string a sentence together. Palin when asked about Supreme Court cases couldn't even think of any cases other than Roe v. Wade, even cases involving Alaska.



Someone with no desire to be president doesn't run in the first place. Funny you'd be down on Rudy but not down on Bolton since they are quite close.



By virtue of being US Senators, Obama and Hillary would have passed that. I have no reason to think Bill Clinton couldn't have passed that, and George W. would have passed that due to Daddy's influence. Besides, that's not written anywhere in the Constitution, and I've never even heard that proposed as an Amendment.

In any case, I was really trying to keep the discussion nonpartisan. I wasn't slamming Reagan, for example, and did slam Mondale. Unfortunately you don't seem able to follow a nonpartisan discussion.

Actually I don't think Palin sank the Republicans, it's merely less than 20 years after Bill Clinton's election. But IMHO, "it's the economy, stupid" still the rule nobody can afford going against. You can talk about national security, abortion, religion, blahblahblah, but if the economy REALLY tanks, nothing else matters. We had a real economy tanking last fall, and MacCain came off as the delusional, senile, living-in-bubble one by saying "the fundamental of US economy is sound" when the Lehman Brother's collapse and subsequent near-collapse of the entire financial system clearly showed the economy, fundamentally or superficially, clearly wasn't sound at all. That's what really sealed fate of MacCain's campaign. As for Palin, MacCain's original intention was probably to select her to invigorate the base, I don't know how much more invigorated the republican base was after the selection of Palin, but the disastrous performance of Palin on her 1st interview definitely invigorated the independent, Bush was more than enough to stir up the passion of the Democratic base, but Palin's public display of unprecedented ignorance&stupidity (people like to make fun of Bush, but clearly Bush is 10 times more knowledgeable than Palin on any subject) really really left a bad taste in the mouth of independent voters. That being said, fundamentally, I still think that if we didn't have a economic collapse, MacCain would still get a chance, after the collapse, personally, there was really no doubt at all in my mind as to who would win the election.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by eatfastnoodle

Actually I don't think Palin sank the Republicans, it's merely less than 20 years after Bill Clinton's election. But IMHO, "it's the economy, stupid" still the rule nobody can afford going against. You can talk about national security, abortion, religion, blahblahblah, but if the economy REALLY tanks, nothing else matters. We had a real economy tanking last fall, and MacCain came off as the delusional, senile, living-in-bubble one by saying "the fundamental of US economy is sound" when the Lehman Brother's collapse and subsequent near-collapse of the entire financial system clearly showed the economy, fundamentally or superficially, clearly wasn't sound at all. That's what really sealed fate of MacCain's campaign. As for Palin, MacCain's original intention was probably to select her to invigorate the base

According to a friend of mine whose family is involved in Arizona Republican politics, Palin was forced upon McCain by Karl Rove to motivate the redneck "base" (horny old men and teenage boys?) and McCain wanted to pick Tom Ridge. Palin had the opposite effect on Republicans I knew.

I don't know how much more invigorated the republican base was after the selection of Palin, but the disastrous performance of Palin on her 1st interview definitely invigorated the independent, Bush was more than enough to stir up the passion of the Democratic base, but Palin's public display of unprecedented ignorance&stupidity (people like to make fun of Bush, but clearly Bush is 10 times more knowledgeable than Palin on any subject) really really left a bad taste in the mouth of independent voters. That being said, fundamentally, I still think that if we didn't have a economic collapse, MacCain would still get a chance, after the collapse, personally, there was really no doubt at all in my mind as to who would win the election.

The collapse sealed it for sure, but from the moment Palin was picked I knew Obama would win, even if the collapse had occurred after the election. Given McCain's age and health the possibility of Palin as president was scary.

[Dwatted Wabbit]

Palin activated the base because she is far closer to conservative than McDemocrat is.

That is not partisan, majoun, it is simply a fact.

Without Palin, or with another semi-demi drudge like Ridge, McCain would have never gotten close in the polls. As it was, if it weren't for the (most likely staged) collapse, McCain had a pretty fair chance of winning despite his severe case of lightweightedness.
And despite his many, many flaws, today a McCain presidency would look far more intelligent, energetic, and patriotic than the 100-day wonder.

It is really a matter of opinion regarding Bill Clinton's speaking ability or his sparkling personality. IMO he's a fair speaker--for a pathological liar--and he has no discernable personality since his entire life and all his words are lies.
The one outstanding part of his life is his "moral compass": Hillary.

Perhaps the folks who think Clinton is a fine speaker also are enamored or Obama's incredible communicating talents.
Sans telepropter, the poor guy makes W or Sarah look like the champion of the planetary college debate team. He can barely speak. Unless uh uh uh uh is considered intelligent.

Condi Rice is just another Bush dem-lite tool.
Bush was LBJ, 21st century version.

As for RWR, IMO his greatest failure was aggressively addressing external communism, and ignorning the thousands of cells operating within the country and the Western alliances.

Karl Rove. Wasn't he the "architect" who magnificently engineered the "permanent republican majority"? Rove, like Paul "the forehead" Begala, is way way overrated. Fortunately he thinks quite highly of himself.
He took a second rate politician and used the family juice to work him into the presidency. He barely defeated another family juice juvenile delinquent boob.
Hardly what The Founders worked so hard for.

Neither Great Warrior nor Mr. Polar Bear had any remarkable presidential qualities.
Except for the most important one, insider support.

[tball6733]

Palin may have energized the "base" , shrinking as it is, but at the same time she turned off the independents and if the results are an indication of what an energized base can do then the Right is in deep trouble. In the end the public at large doesn't care for your "base" and rejects what it preaches.
The latest survey reports that only 21% consider themselves Republicans and based on your biases I would say you represent about 1/4 to 1/2 of that group. So yes we are all entitled to an opinion but sometime we needs to ask its relative importance when viewing that of the public's as a whole. In your case btwn. 6 and 10.5%

[majoun]

Originally Posted by Dwatted Wabbit

Palin activated the base because she is far closer to conservative than McDemocrat is.

I didn't realize that operating a petro-socialist welfare state is considered "conservative". In that case, Hugo Chavez would be considered a "conservative hero".

That is not partisan, majoun, it is simply a fact.

Don't think her looks had something to do with it?

There were qualified Republican female politicians who McCain could have chosen as VP, like Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas or Governor Linda Lingle of Hawaii. OTOH, Lingle's on the heavy side, and Hutchinson's too close in age to McCain.

I would have bashed Palin if she'd been a Dem, too. Your post WAS very partisan, admit it.

[RobE]

The best histories of Reagan, thanks to the laws regarding the archiving of government documents, won't be written until my nephew is in his old age.

But from my perspective just 20 years on, the fact that over 150 of his officials left office under some legal or ethical cloud in addition to the Iran Contra fiasco are both going to be fertile ground for historians, which will hurt his standing in the historical community.

Quadrupling the national debt (which eventually made Bill Clinton possible via Ross Perot), ratcheting up tensions with the Soviet Union to the point where the Russians were seriously considering launch on warning, which would have been extremely dangerous indeed, the blowback engendered by financing Osama Bin Laden and then abandoning Afghanistan from a political standpoint once the Soviet Union collapsed, his senility the last couple of years in office (bad as Wilson's last year, when his wife was pretty much running the country; Nancy might have been in a similar position), the crack epidemic and escalating crime in America, the McJob and increasing racial tensions, Reagan years really did this country a lot of damage.

On the failure of the Soviets, the truth is that the Soviet system was rotting from the inside. Just as a rotting tooth will collapse on itself eventually without treatment, the same was true of the Communist regime. Gorbachev just decided to call a spade a spade and try to put an end to the craziness and it kind of got away from him.

Read the Mitrokhin Archive for more on the last days of the Soviet Union. I would say that Pope John Paul did more to hasten the collapse of the Soviets than Reagan did. Sounds weird, but you would not believe the problems the Pope made for the Communist bloc.