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Japan's certainly has a military that could be significant in a regional conflict. It's relatively small personal-wise but as previous poster alluded to is very high-tech with hundreds of advanced aircraft (F-15, F-2) modern surface ships, submarines, and armor/artillery.
I don't think the smaller head-count in ground troops matter much for Japan, since in a conflict involving North Korea what is Japan's risk for heavy ground combat? Pretty low, as North Korea's force projection (nuke option aside) much past it's coastline is limited mainly to lobbing rockets and hoping they hit something juicy. Japan could certainly play a key role helping control the air and sea if a conflict arose.
NK can kill a few 100k SK civilians in hours just by lobbing artillery randomly.
Thats pretty much their ace in the hole.
I agree with ovcatto that Kim Jong-il is a despicable sort. I don't think China will back him the way that China backed N. Korea in the 1950s. The USA and China have too many economic links now.
I agree with ovcatto that Kim Jong-il is a despicable sort. I don't think China will back him the way that China backed N. Korea in the 1950s. The USA and China have too many economic links now.
Which is precisely what makes him dangerous. Not only is he despicable, but probably crazy too. If he gets it into his head that he can't count on China to cover his back, he might do almost anything.
What has he actually done that is crazy? To me his actions, while very agressive, make sense if you think exclusively of the benefit of your own family and nothing else.
Japan could certainly defeat a N Korean invasion of Japan. But it could not, even with high tech aircraft do much on the korean peninsular itself.
Spent a hitch in Korea and I can unequivocally state that until the North Korea regime collapses the US will always be at risk of war on the Korean peninsula.
Kim Jong Il knows that China won't allow a UN resolution against his country. China wants to maintain its exports. I read they have roughly $50 billion in trade monthly, much of it leaving China through shipping routes which take it close to the Koreas, not to mention many of their shipments are through flights which would likely be at risk if war broke out.
So, unless we can convince China that North Korea is nothing but a thorn in the side of the international community and a risk to regional stability, I can't see them advocating an increase in hostilities. Further, they have a border with North Korea. They don't want a bunch of North Korean refugees to flood the country which would result if war did break out.
China is slowly coming to realize that the North is nothing but a failed experiment - a mixture of communism with personality cult, something they were going through with Mao. They wanted to know if a personality cult could maintain a country and its economy. They definitely have their answer.
Personally, I think the US, Japan, and S. Korea should enforce an embargo on all shipping to and from the North and halt all ships which attempt to break the blockade, with the stipulation that if Kim Il Jong steps down from power and lets the South merge with it, and have Seoul be the new capital and administrative center, and enforce market capitalism, while offering exile and a place of residence for him and his family somewhere other than Korea and loosening our hold on his assets, I think we'd either see him step down in a year and ask to be taken away from his starving people, or we'd see open conflict, both of which would result in a reunified Korea.
RE: the nuclear option, if Kim Jong Il seriously tried, I'm sure he'd be shocked that we have missiles and lasers which can shoot down the types of ballistic missiles he has. Japan would likely require such protection prior to engaging in war.
Chinese trade with the US is many many times that with N Korea. If that trade is endangered by N Korea in any form, then Chinese support of N Korea will end quickly.
I think that the present support for N Korea has nearly nothing to do with communism, even if you feel china today is a commuist state idealogically. It has to do with the Chinese reluctance to support regime change in authoritarian states, in case that is used against them later.
Perhaps more salient is the question of whether the US desires to have at least a sharply escalated cold war in the western Pacific. As China grows in influence, it is maybe seen as critical by the US to have a sturdy military presence in the western Pacific. A few hottish wars over there would justify our military presence, and could be used for nation buliding, in which we can have client states to station our nuclear missiles ready at hand to use to threaten China if it ever becomes "necessary" (i.e., economically favorable).
We are broke and on a verge of a breadown between right and left here. The last thing we can afford is another war.
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