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View Poll Results: Do you think Houston Metropolitan Area (MSA) will get above 8 Million by 2030?
Yes 47 85.45%
No 6 10.91%
Other (Please specify) 2 3.64%
Voters: 55. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-24-2011, 09:47 PM
 
Location: Underneath the Pecan Tree
15,982 posts, read 35,206,894 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallascaper View Post
Nice fantasy. But DFW will remain the largest metro in Texas for a long time.
I'm actually confident enough to bet against that. Houston has a location and economy that will keep it sustainable for growth for a long time. I look at like this; when you think of World-class top league cities all over the world; they're all near or on the coast. I think location plays a key part in a cities success.

I'd be very shocked if Dallas kept up this type of growth or any significant growth 50 years from now. I'm not wishing or hoping any bad luck on the city because in the end we're all Texans and any cities success is success for all of us. However, I'd be surprised.

EDIT:

Quote:
Houston is oil only, lost its airline, will soon lose NASA (hint: theres a reason a shuttle wasnt placed here and theres no amusement parks bcuz no tourists. DFW kills Houston. Period.
1. Why are you repping me this???

2. This is an open forum; you can say all this out here so we can discuss it. No need to anonymously send this.

Last edited by blkgiraffe; 07-24-2011 at 10:13 PM..
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Old 07-25-2011, 01:18 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
20,515 posts, read 33,531,365 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallascaper View Post
Everybody with a deep water port from the Gulf to the east coast is talking about the Panama Canal. I'm sure Houston will see it's share of new business, but some on this board have their hype-o-meters on wishful thinking mode.
None are going to take in as much as Houston will though. Houston already has the upper hand on the rest of the Atlantic basin. I do agree that DFW will probably stay ahead of Houston. But Houston is going to close the gap.
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Old 07-25-2011, 01:21 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
20,515 posts, read 33,531,365 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blkgiraffe View Post
I'm actually confident enough to bet against that. Houston has a location and economy that will keep it sustainable for growth for a long time. I look at like this; when you think of World-class top league cities all over the world; they're all near or on the coast. I think location plays a key part in a cities success.

I'd be very shocked if Dallas kept up this type of growth or any significant growth 50 years from now. I'm not wishing or hoping any bad luck on the city because in the end we're all Texans and any cities success is success for all of us. However, I'd be surprised.

EDIT:



1. Why are you repping me this???

2. This is an open forum; you can say all this out here so we can discuss it. No need to anonymously send this.
Most cities are on a coast or near it. But there are exceptions. Examples are Moscow and Madrid. Dallas could be one of those exceptions.
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Old 07-25-2011, 07:40 AM
 
Location: ITL (Houston)
9,221 posts, read 15,952,147 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
None are going to take in as much as Houston will though. Houston already has the upper hand on the rest of the Atlantic basin. I do agree that DFW will probably stay ahead of Houston. But Houston is going to close the gap.
But how is the Houston area going to close the gap, but not pass DFW later on in the future? What industry is going to push DFW over the top? DFW is always going to be a great place for corporate relocations due to its location and airport, but I think it's starting to plateau like Atlanta (though DFW is in Texas, so it'll have more growth and more jobs created). All decade, DFW was outgrowing Houston by a couple hundred thousand through the estimates (as did Atlanta), but when the real numbers come out, it's the Houston area on top. I just think the reasons why Houston is growing is why it'll be the largest metro in the south in the next coming decades. It has the ingredients. I don't think Atlanta and DFW do. Those are more big time American cities than a global city like Houston, IMO.
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Old 07-25-2011, 09:34 AM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,495 posts, read 32,943,565 times
Reputation: 7752
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
Most cities are on a coast or near it. But there are exceptions. Examples are Moscow and Madrid. Dallas could be one of those exceptions.
Madrid and Moscow are good examples and at the same time bad examples.

1. Those two are capitals of countries. Countries that were very powerful. I think Danny did a thread some time back about it. Very few non capital inland cities make it to mega-cities.

2. DFW metro is already the size of Madrid metro, so if that is what it is aspiring to achieve then it already there. Only difference is that Madrid's core has 3 times the population of dallas.

3. Both Madrid and Moscow is well connected to the coast. There is national rail, navigable Rivers and buses that ferry people around the country. We have none of this in the US connecting Dallas. So the flow of people is not as easy. When I was in Europe I saw High School students from Madrid taking day trips to London to visit the Museums by themselves. I would like to see students in Dallas try to get to the museums here and and back lol.

I see DFW maxing out at 7.5M, but can't imagine it going much further. In Houston's case, I see the Harris County alone getting to 7 M. That lives 9 other counties for the people who like their space.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trae713 View Post
But how is the Houston area going to close the gap, but not pass DFW later on in the future? What industry is going to push DFW over the top? DFW is always going to be a great place for corporate relocations due to its location and airport, but I think it's starting to plateau like Atlanta (though DFW is in Texas, so it'll have more growth and more jobs created). All decade, DFW was outgrowing Houston by a couple hundred thousand through the estimates (as did Atlanta), but when the real numbers come out, it's the Houston area on top. I just think the reasons why Houston is growing is why it'll be the largest metro in the south in the next coming decades. It has the ingredients. I don't think Atlanta and DFW do. Those are more big time American cities than a global city like Houston, IMO.
I agree. the Difference is only 300 and some thousand now, how is Houston gonna speed up and DFW slow down and not close the gap??

Houston was about 300K bigger than DFW in the 80s and it only took 4 years for DFW to pass it (and both had a smaller birthrate back then) why would it be so impossible for Houston to speed up and pass DFW?

I agree, being regional hubs, ATL and DFW are more important nationally than internationally. Houston is the huge international southern city
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Old 07-25-2011, 09:37 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
20,515 posts, read 33,531,365 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trae713 View Post
But how is the Houston area going to close the gap, but not pass DFW later on in the future? What industry is going to push DFW over the top? DFW is always going to be a great place for corporate relocations due to its location and airport, but I think it's starting to plateau like Atlanta (though DFW is in Texas, so it'll have more growth and more jobs created). All decade, DFW was outgrowing Houston by a couple hundred thousand through the estimates (as did Atlanta), but when the real numbers come out, it's the Houston area on top. I just think the reasons why Houston is growing is why it'll be the largest metro in the south in the next coming decades. It has the ingredients. I don't think Atlanta and DFW do. Those are more big time American cities than a global city like Houston, IMO.
Houston did outgrow them. But by a mere twenty thousand. Both of these metros go back and forth to much and has for the last 30 years in POP stats.Not 200,000 like Atlanta. DFW has not shown that its plateaued yet. I still think they will be the leading city in Telecom and will become one of the top global cities for it. DFW has the industries that you don't neccessarily need a coast for in Telecom, IT, airport, etc. Houston could pass DFW. But neither will leave each other in the dust. This won't be LA to SF. Alao, honestly, if Dallas grows by even 900,000, it will have a population of 7.2 million in the MSA AND 7.5 Million iNthe CSA likely passing the bay area. That's more than just a big time American city.
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Old 07-25-2011, 09:51 AM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,495 posts, read 32,943,565 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
Houston did outgrow them. But by a mere twenty thousand. Both of these metros go back and forth to much and has for the last 30 years in POP stats.Not 200,000 like Atlanta. DFW has not shown that its plateaued yet. I still think they will be the leading city in Telecom and will become one of the top global cities for it. DFW has the industries that you don't neccessarily need a coast for in Telecom, IT, airport, etc. Houston could pass DFW. But neither will leave each other in the dust. This won't be LA to SF. Alao, honestly, if Dallas grows by even 900,000, it will have a population of 7.2 million in the MSA AND 7.5 Million iNthe CSA likely passing the bay area. That's more than just a big time American city.
the 20 thousand just reflects the 2 or so last years that Houston picked up. the first 7 or so years the other two were speeding on and DFW was supposed to be 600K ahead of Houston and ATL was supposed to catch up to Houston, so instead of a 600K gap between GH and DFW it was narrowed to less than 400K and instead of a zero gap between GH and ATL the wap widened to 700K.

If the change had happened earlier in the last decade a greater change would have been apparent. Houston and DFW would be much much closer together and ATL would be to far behind to be in the discussion.

no one said that one will leave the other in the dust, the question was GH passing DFW, and I am most certain that it will.

How many people are currently employed in the Telecom industry in DFW. I know it is a lot on first glance but not that much more than a handful of other cities. I think the last figure I saw was about 250K (about as much as in Philly and some other metros). I really don't see that number doubling and trippling to bring on a plethora of new jobs to the area. The Port of Houston on the other hand is responsible for over 1M jobs in the State. Houston just has to be wise in this venture and make sure that it keeps a good share of the new jobs in Houston rather than helping Dallas out with some.

Like I said before DFW needs the distribution jobs that the port of Houston provides. Houston does not need DFW to store and distribute goods. It can do that itself if it spends the money on facilities. DFW can attribute a lot of its growth on Houston and San Antonio cause being a regional hub of distribution for goods from those areas is what made DFW important. Houston and SA would have grown without the help of a distribution city, but DFW would be nowhere without a feeder city
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Old 07-25-2011, 09:56 AM
 
12,735 posts, read 21,774,364 times
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I can see Houston and DFW actually being twin metros. I think both have left Atlanta and Miami in the dust! I think Houston will be the growth leader this decade. Its proximity to Mexico, its increasing popularity among blacks, the Panama Canal expansion (from what I've heard), and its normal growing aspects, I think, will cause Houston to become the largest metro in Texas. BTW, myself will make Houston only "one person" bigger than DFW! HA!
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Old 07-25-2011, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA - Seattle, WA - Manila, PH
457 posts, read 904,915 times
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FYI...the NCTCOG projects the 12 county DFW metro at 9.8m by 2030. Of course, the numbers could be way off, but safe to say DFW has no plans of slowing down.

And saying that DFW will top out at 7.5m is flying in the face of history and every projection I've seen.


Research & Information Services - NCTCOG.org
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Old 07-25-2011, 10:47 AM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA - Seattle, WA - Manila, PH
457 posts, read 904,915 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
None are going to take in as much as Houston will though. Houston already has the upper hand on the rest of the Atlantic basin. I do agree that DFW will probably stay ahead of Houston. But Houston is going to close the gap.

Upper hand for what? Houston sees only a portion of PC business now, what makes you think it will suddenly get the lion's share of business in the future? And to generate 1m new jobs (or whatever the fantasy says) Houston will need the majority of new business. The PC is doubling capacity - that's all. Some people on this board act like thousands of freighters are suddenly going to appear off the coast of Texas. Even after expansion, the PC will still be a supply chain bottleneck and the majority of Asian freight will still flow through the west coast ports. But good luck to Houston, I'm sure they will make the most of this opportunity, even if the numbers turn out more modest than some would envision.

For the record, I am not here to pop everyone's bubble. But I know a thing or two about supply chain, and the hyperbole displayed by people who apparently don't know the difference between an FCL and a FEU is irritating. BTW, I voted 'yes' to Houston reaching 8m by 2030 - I wouldn't be shocked if it hits 9m.
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