what if a category 5 hurricane hit houston (Beaumont, Baytown: insurance, how much)

[Ambusher11]

what if a category 5 hurricane hit houston

[groens]

we'd be screwed. massive flooding, downed trees, massive storm surge (up to downtown), no electricity for weeks if not months... it would really be bad. alicia was only a cat 2 or 3, and i remember how horrible it was. i can't imagine a direct hit from a cat 5. it'd be of katrina proportions, definitely.

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by groens

it'd be of katrina proportions, definitely.

Or not. It will not be pretty (and this post isn't pretty and it's long) but Houston is not New Orleans. Houston is Houston. Houston does not sit below sea level.

First of all - I realize anything can happen, but a Cat-5 has never been recorded to hit the Texas coast. In fact I think the furthest west a Cat-5 has made landfall as such was Camille (1969) which hit near the Mississippi River much like Katrina.

One thing recent storms hitting Louisiana or the upper Texas coast have done is weakening significantly before landfall. Katrina did this (it actually was a Cat-3 at the time of its landfall near Grand Isle, La. Rita did this and also went from 5 to 3 in a hurry before hitting near the Sabine River. Hurricane Lili in 2002 was a Cat-4 within 10 hours of landfall before hitting the heart of Cajun country as a relatively tame Cat-1.

My theory on this - I'm no meteorologist or marine scientist or anything like that, just someone who reads a lot - is that the Mississippi River is knocking down the hurricanes a notch before they hit. The Mississippi drains into the Gulf, and when it was left to its own devices the silt it carried southward toward the Gulf would settle into the Louisiana delta. Well, around the 1930s or so the Mississippi's flow was altered - ironically, to keep parts of New Orleans from flooding. Now, more of that water (and silt) shoots straight out into the Gulf, almost like a jacuzzi jet or something. This is why the water in the Gulf here is the color it is. The Gulf currents move it westward as opposed to eastward, and that is why Florida's waters are clear blue and ours is not. The Mississippi water is going to be cooler than the water in the Gulf, so what I think is happening is this water flowing out from the river is moderating water temperatures along the immediate coast, serving to "cut off" storms from their fuel as they approach land. This may not really be what happens and all three of those storms I mentioned could have been just a natural fluke. But if there is an explanation, I figure this is plausible.

Hurricanes generally do not maintain Cat-5 intensity for extended periods of time, even in the warmest water. So unless one is hours away from landfall as a Cat-4 and strengthening, Cat-5 is probably not going to happen. Furthermore, Houston is further inland, so depending on where precisely the storm makes landfall and its trajectory afterward is really the big variable on how severe the effect will be on Houston itself.

The coastal areas of Galveston and Brazoria counties, including Galveston Island, serve as a buffer between Houston and the coast, so a storm making a direct hit on Galveston should weaken some before moving into Houston. If it's a Cat-3 at landfall in Galveston or Freeport or somewhere along the coast immediately south/southeast, you are probably looking at minimum Cat-2 winds in Houston at most. This was the case with Alicia in '83.

Now, the worst-case scenario for Houston - a storm that takes a more direct course to its least protected side - the east, closest to Galveston Bay. A storm crossing Bolivar Peninsula (just a thin sandbar attached to land on the other side of the bay) and moving over Galveston Bay to make landfall near the ship channel would push maximum surge into Buffalo Bayou and other bayous in Houston. There was a storm that hit here in 1943 that hit like this, but it was a Cat-1:

1943 Surprise Hurricane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A Cat-5 hitting in this fashion would be nothing short of devastating. Bolivar, unlike Galveston, is not protected by a seawall and is very low-lying. The surge will move over it like a car goes over a speed bump. This will do little to retard the flow of storm surge into the ship channel which will inundate the Port of Houston, the surrounding industrial complex and downtown Houston. The surge could even travel up White Oak Bayou all the way into the Heights possibly further to the north and west. Other bayous southward (e.g. Brays, Sims) will take in surge but how much could depend on how exactly the storm hits. Buffalo will be the worst, followed likely by White Oak which will also be getting rained upon heavily. Another highly vulnerable area is Clear Lake and Clear Creek, which will also take in surge.

An Alicia-style landfall south and moving overland to Houston will maximize damage in Galveston, Texas City and other low-lying coastal areas; how well they would fare in a storm hitting Houston from the ship channel side (being south of the eye) would depend once again on the storm's exact point of landfall on Galveston Bay's western shore. The levees in Galveston and Texas City will not hold Cat-5 surge. They will be underwater. Texas City (which is my hometown) will be under several feet of water, possibly until they can restore power to the flood pumps, provided they are not too damaged to work. Kemah, San Leon, La Porte, Seabrook and Baytown will take in surge and left severely damaged. Those communities will be major losers no matter how a storm hits the area - if the storm is anywhere in or near the bay there is going to be massive surge. As for Galveston, what I described happening to Bolivar in the ship channel landfall scenario pretty much holds true for the island city. There's no way to sugarcoat it - it will be an ugly scene. In Houston, winds will be destructive and there will be significant surge and flooding in the most floodprone areas and some others not thought of as floodprone. This is why flood insurance is always a good idea. However I tend to think this would not be as bad as a ship channel landfall, not that it will be "good." In other parts inland the concerns are heavy wind and rain, isolated tornadoes and street flooding from rainfall. Trees will fall, even moreso if rains preceding the storm softens the ground beforehand.

Hate to sound this scary, but that's what you're looking at. But here's the deal - storms happen. Remember that you cannot see an earthquake or a landslide or anything like that on a satellite image days before landfall. Make a plan before you see a storm on the Weather Channel. What will you do? Where will you go? When the time comes all you do is execute your plan. Remember that when panic takes over, everyone's going to jump on the freeways and there will be massive gridlock. However, I found Houston's back streets practically deserted and I made it from the southern edge of Alvin to Spring (north) in about two hours, stopping to get out and stretch and walk around a bit in the Home Depot parking lot at Shepherd and the North Loop on the way. They had soda machines outside and I wasn't about to deal with the circus scenes in the few gas stations that were open.

That said - if you're here, learn the ways to get around. All of them. You never know when it will mean the difference between two hours and a whole lot longer.

[Ambusher11]

it did happen in 1961 well hurricane carla hit the texas coast as a category 4 hurricane

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by Ambusher11

it did happen in 1961 well hurricane carla hit the texas coast as a category 4 hurricane

Yes, it was Cat-4, and the eye actually made landfall near Port Lavaca which is almost 100 miles down the coast. Carla was an exceptionally large storm - large powerful storms will have a more widespread impact.

It should be noted that the levee in Texas City came after Carla...Carla left it under ~4ft of water.

[Premont]

I remember when Alicia hit. It seemed to die when it went over land, but still it was powerful. There were a lot of trees down and we must have went about 5 days without power.

[SDBreaux]

One poster described the situation in Houston if a Cat. 5 hit.

Now I'll tell you the positive outlook.

Houston is not New Orleans (clearly). Our social, economic, community and preparedness is completely different. Not to mention, but the state of Texas also has a huge impact on this. Louisiana is still working to recover areas that were barely hit at all. It took Beaumont - and the state - two or three months to get everything "back to normal," for the most part.

Citizens in Houston would no doubt work hard to rebuild everything, no matter the cost. Unlike New Orleans, the majority of Housonites are NOT living on welfare, increasing the odds of a functional road to recovery.

But let's NEVER hope something like that happens!

[jfre81]

Houston will never die.

[Bike4Life]

That's the thing, too many people get too excited about any size of a hurricane and hit the road. No matter what, I'll hunker down and ride it out. My house was built in the 1950's brick veneer all around and my parents house from the 1930's is still standing through all past hurricanes. These are not in the surge zones that you want to avoid. So, we'll be fine.

I'll get at least two weeks of food rationing, 20 gallons of water, and all kinds of fancy survival gagdets.

The only hard part is trying to live without a/c for two weeks! It happened to me with Alicia.

[jfre81]

Generally I think if you are in a well-built house or high-rise building where you can be away from windows and have an interior room (e.g.) bathroom) to retreat toward if your roof would come off (your house is not going to withstand a direct tornado hit, even if it can handle the straight-line winds - at the very least the tornado will cave in your roof and ceiling if it leaves the brick frame largely intact)

We will pick up every splinter and shard of glass from our streets, pump out every drop of floodwater back from whence it came and go about our business. We didn't build a port 30-some-odd miles inland and turn a ditch that God himself dug instead of the City of Houston into something that large ships could navigate, only for the purpose of its long-term survival, just to walk away because a really big one hit. That's just not the way we roll.