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Old 02-22-2012, 02:27 PM
 
Location: Houston
441 posts, read 885,279 times
Reputation: 464

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It's often completely off if you are looking for 5 day prediction. Today is like 85 and sunny and 5 days ago they predicted 50's and rain. Two weeks ago they predicted sunny week so I washed my car and it was raining the whole week. Is it because of lack of equipment, funding or not enough supercomputers? Don't tell me it's the Gulf, I lived next to similar water masses and weather predictions were more accurate.
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Old 02-22-2012, 02:29 PM
 
Location: Pearland, TX
3,334 posts, read 5,510,973 times
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I've lived in 5 different states and all except Arizona (It's hot for the rest of the year) are as spotty in their predictions as Houston is.

Ronnie
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Old 02-22-2012, 05:27 PM
 
Location: League City
646 posts, read 854,299 times
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Predicting weather is far from an exact science. All it takes is a little shift in a weather system from it's predicted path to change things a whole lot in a lot of cases. I've lived in San Antonio, Austin and Minnesota all with similar issues in predicting the weather.
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Old 02-22-2012, 05:49 PM
 
Location: plano
3,811 posts, read 3,997,846 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jasonamd View Post
Predicting weather is far from an exact science. All it takes is a little shift in a weather system from it's predicted path to change things a whole lot in a lot of cases. I've lived in San Antonio, Austin and Minnesota all with similar issues in predicting the weather.
Weather may be hard to predict but some claim to know that we have man made global warming. It may well be true but there are few things we know with certainty and weather forecasting is one as is understanding how the climate systems work and are impacted by natural and man made activity.

Houston is at the confluence of strong weather formations coming down from the NW as well as strong systems flowing in from the gulf. Its a battle of the titans... weather forecasting has to predict which titan wins out in Houston and they miss it often. DFW is somewhat the same in terms of misses and the two big titans battling things out
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Old 02-22-2012, 06:01 PM
 
345 posts, read 892,118 times
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All weather (wo)man in TV has a body language of the next prophet
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Old 02-22-2012, 06:46 PM
 
Location: 77059
7,888 posts, read 20,273,101 times
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This thread needs to be moved to the general weather forum.
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Old 02-22-2012, 07:55 PM
 
636 posts, read 871,488 times
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There is a saying if you don't like the weather in Texas just wait a minute. It is not that they are innacurate, it is that weather patterns change regularly.
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Old 02-23-2012, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Richmond
11 posts, read 13,853 times
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As a meteorologist, maybe I can help answer your questions from a scientific perspective.

There are certain weather patterns that make for easier forecasts and there are others that make life tough on a weatherman. Obviously, a forecaster in Las Vegas can set a fairly accurate 5-7 day forecast, whereas a Chicagoan would have more trouble. This is because fewer weather systems impact Nevada.

Certain times of the year become more difficult in specific regions of the US. When the deep south transitions to Spring (which is happening a bit early this year), we get low pressure troughs that repeatedly dive south and east into the plains. Recently, our models have been in disagreement consistently on the movement and positioning of these lows. Now, just to give you an idea of how important that is, think about Hurricane Rita. It moved east to the TX/LA border the final day about 100-150 miles and that was the difference between Houston flooding and little to no rain. Well, same concept. The meteorologists do their best to consider the atmospheric conditions and give a best guess as to when and where this low will affect Houston. Lately, with the models being inaccurate, the long term forecasts have been off. This is true for pretty much any place east of the Rockies, not just here.

Truth be told, this time of year, precip chances are going to flux for anything beyond 48 hours. For example, we had a chance of severe weather tonight on Monday, and today I don't know if we will see even a drop of rain. That's what can happen in 72 hours.
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Old 02-23-2012, 09:32 AM
 
1,091 posts, read 38,965 times
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As Jasonamd said, it's not an exact science. Plus, we have various factors surrounding us that can dramatically change weather unexpectedly (the Gulf of Mexico, Galveston Bay, dry areas to the south and west, "tornado alley" to our north). Pollution can play a role too.

OP - The weather forecasters do as good of a job as possible. If you think you can do better, then give it a shot, and we'll see. Until you've "walked in their shoes", and experienced firsthand what they have to deal with, quit complaining. It does no good...
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Old 02-23-2012, 02:25 PM
 
242 posts, read 335,495 times
Reputation: 205
Meteorologist = Best Job in the world

You get paid to be wrong
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