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I've gotten a lot of posts that the West Memorial 77079 area zoned to Stratford is a good area for future home appreciation. I did some research and talked to a realtor, and I have no doubt that that would have been the best area to purchase a home for appreciation 2 or 3 years ago. I was told that homes priced for $300k back in 2010 go for $400-$450k now. If that's true, then that is crazy high appreciation. My concern is that the appreciation has already happened, and if anything, the market may slightly correct or stay the same. The single-family residential areas are very nice in 77079, but I did notice a lot of lower-end apartments or condos in this area. My concern is that the major appreciation has already happened very recently and am not sure what to expect in the next 4-6 years.
The thing you have to account for is homes that went for 300k a few years ago were more original condition because turnover was more original residents moving but with younger, more affluent people moving in and around the area, renovated homes are becoming more prevalent on the market driving up the average cost because the homes don't need work. I think a 300k original condition home would now go for 350-400, not necessarily 400-450. But a 300k home that was then renovated in 2010 and now put on the market would command 400-450. Certainly the greatest bumps in value comes from the initial wave (which really started as far back as 2005), but appreciation will continue as long as businesses continue to concentrate around the EC. I mean look at briar grove. Same lot sizes but those go for $225-300/sqft based on their proximity to the galleria. The same could be for West Memorial if industry continues to consolidate around the area. Granted the appreciation tragectory will slow as budgets run out, but there is still low enough entry points right now for dual income couples to buy in.
As for the shady apartments, already two are being torn down currently or in the near future (wisteria now, Princeton soon). If young professionals full those up, others will follow. Some will be new apartments, others will become high end townhomes, further raising the bar.
None of this is guaranteed and depends on a continued upward trend in the o&g business cycle locally, but as long and o&g continues to consolidate in the area, residential appreciation is a given.
I've gotten a lot of posts that the West Memorial 77079 area zoned to Stratford is a good area for future home appreciation. I did some research and talked to a realtor, and I have no doubt that that would have been the best area to purchase a home for appreciation 2 or 3 years ago. I was told that homes priced for $300k back in 2010 go for $400-$450k now. If that's true, then that is crazy high appreciation. My concern is that the appreciation has already happened, and if anything, the market may slightly correct or stay the same. The single-family residential areas are very nice in 77079, but I did notice a lot of lower-end apartments or condos in this area. My concern is that the major appreciation has already happened very recently and am not sure what to expect in the next 4-6 years.
Bingo. This is the exact conversation DH and I have had, coupled with the fact that personally, we find the 77079 neighborhoods themselves to be a little too depressing. The homes seem weary, and the era generally favored dark rooms with low ceilings. Surrounded by decrepit shopping areas and loads of apartments, we just can't warm to it. Ah well. We passed on it way back in 2004 and have repeatedly passed on it as the prices have escalated. Obviously others don't feel the same way.
But beyond aesthetics, like you we wonder whether this area represents an already bloated bubble, and, perhaps more than any other in Houston, it is directly tied to the fortunes of oil companies.
Bingo. This is the exact conversation DH and I have had, coupled with the fact that personally, we find the 77079 neighborhoods themselves to be a little too depressing. The homes seem weary, and the era generally favored dark rooms with low ceilings. Surrounded by decrepit shopping areas and loads of apartments, we just can't warm to it. Ah well. We passed on it way back in 2004 and have repeatedly passed on it as the prices have escalated. Obviously others don't feel the same way.
But beyond aesthetics, like you we wonder whether this area represents an already bloated bubble, and, perhaps more than any other in Houston, it is directly tied to the fortunes of oil companies.
I think much depends on which part of 77079 you are looking at- there are divisions within the zip code. Kind of east/west of Dairy Ashford - maybe even East/west of Kirkwood with Nottinghsm Forest lumped in with the hoods east of Kirkwood. Homes zoned to KISD are their own beast- totally different vibe for various reasons. Homes are what they are because most were built within a certain era. You are not going to find original homes with new build features unless new build, gutted or ceilings raised etc etc. The neighborhoods not butting up against the ugly commercial and apartments are going to more sought after.
Here is the deal about 77079- people (mainly east of Dairy Ashford) buy the homes for the schools not for the houses. The houses are the vehicle for good public schools. Why else pay $500k plus for a 1960s house?? One could go further out and buy a brand new house which is double size on a larger lot. The schools drive home sales. I would be more concerned about depreciation if the schools were pulled put rather than the energy companies.
Houses seem to be going fast especially for hoods east of Kirkwood and in Nottingham Forest. Multiple offers - inventory is low right now. Hopefully that means more appreciation.
I get what you are saying though - it is hard to compare the 60 homes vs. newer ones. New ones look pretty good!
Schools yes but also no. It's mostly perception as the schools have gotten more white and affluent as families are priced out of 77024 - consider that Stratford is only "Acceptable". I'll wager that much local influx into 77079 is families who perceive the schools as better or improving and who cannot afford to pay private tuition, which they would do otherwise. This has been driven in part by low interest rates, allowing people to essentially 'finance' kids education over 30 years. I don't see interest rates going anywhere but up.
You are right, 77079 covers a large swath. DH works downtown and even the eastern edge of 77079 is too far for him. We've only looked just west of 77024 as he is reluctant to consider anything west of the beltway.
Schools yes but also no. It's mostly perception as the schools have gotten more white and affluent as families are priced out of 77024 - consider that Stratford is only "Acceptable". I'll wager that much local influx into 77079 is families who perceive the schools as better or improving and who cannot afford to pay private tuition, which they would do otherwise. This has been driven in part by low interest rates, allowing people to essentially 'finance' kids education over 30 years. I don't see interest rates going anywhere but up.
You are right, 77079 covers a large swath. DH works downtown and even the eastern edge of 77079 is too far for him. We've only looked just west of 77024 as he is reluctant to consider anything west of the beltway.
While I would agree that 77079 does not come close to the wealth of 77024, I would hesitant to make assumptions about all 77079 household incomes especially between Kirkwood and the Beltway - including Nottingham Forest. There is money in there. Maybe not like 77024 but people certainly have the ability to pay private school tuitions and continue to live in $500k and up homes.
Regarding house appreciation ----houses zoned to Rummel Creek and Wilchester are selling quickly and for either asking or above asking price. Those schools are exemplary and are zoned to Memorial Middle - also exemplary. Not sure about your "perception" comment since those schools are exemplary. I can't really comment about Stratford - maybe others can. Whatever is driving it - homes are currently appreciating. Especially if you can get your hands on a house that needs work done/updating.
Saying that, I do understand your sentiment and that of the OP. Not every area/neighborhood is right for everyone. There are great hoods zoned to great schools that I would not consider either.
Then there's the population that buys here because they work in the EC, Memorial Herman, or Galleria. Some buy here for the quiet, green bayou park..so many tri-geeks around. Lots of empty nesters, or almost empty are buying in my area as well.
Also, if you look around many families are going private AND buying in 77079, meaning public schools are probably only driving 50-60% of the buyers... Or less.
Dunno...if its not your bag, there are many places in Houston to buy. Personally, Uptown (where I grew up) and ITL have gotten too congested, loud and traffic hindered for my personality. This way I'm close enough to the action, yet in a forest. That said, the traffic and congestion is building here.
Ps- i sold in Briargrove and bought here mostly for appreciation, a little for commute. I certainly haven't regretted it. Briargrove hit the ceiling on the older homes, these are surpassing them. Terry Hershey will keep me here as long as I'm in Houston, just as it has others. In fact, I built a new house not too far to the east, sold it 70% complete because as nice as the Villages are, those single shot streets off busy roads don't make for a great run or bike. I couldn't warm to the area, didn't need the Village sticker. I got spoiled,sucked in,by the park...thus we continue to live in a dingy, "weary" old house.
Last edited by EasilyAmused; 01-29-2013 at 09:16 AM..
While I would agree that 77079 does not come close to the wealth of 77024, I would hesitant to make assumptions about all 77079 household incomes especially between Kirkwood and the Beltway - including Nottingham Forest. There is money in there. Maybe not like 77024 but people certainly have the ability to pay private school tuitions and continue to live in $500k and up homes.
You're right and I apologize to paint with a broad brush (I did say wager!), but do I personally know half a dozen or so families who moved there in the last three years alone for that very reason, despite not wanting to make the move there. It was the perception that the schools are better coupled with the fact that private school tuition was too great a burden. Most of these families had a third child coming up the pipeline, which made the calculation to move away from private easier.
You're right and I apologize to paint with a broad brush (I did say wager!), but do I personally know half a dozen or so families who moved there in the last three years alone for that very reason, despite not wanting to make the move there. It was the perception that the schools are better coupled with the fact that private school tuition was too great a burden. Most of these families had a third child coming up the pipeline, which made the calculation to move away from private easier.
No worries. But I think you helped make my appreciation point. Your friend made a choice (sounds like based on choosing to have another child) to move to a sound district/neighborhood - thus helping increase demand. Inventory is super low - sellers market. I am guessing they picked the area at least partly based on schools and the neighborhood feel/sense of community---a neighborhood trait you tend to lack if zoned to public schools without strong community support - meaning large populations of private school kids. Hopefully they are happy with their choices, neighborhood and schools. I m sure their neighbors appreciate families like them helping to the increase home values! .
Pictures of your average remodeled house West of Dairy Ashford below.
They're all 1960's built, the lots are generous (they seem huge compared to new suburb lots), native 200 year old trees, homes back to a bayou where you can kayak and enjoy the wooded trails at Terry Hershey, only a 2 minute commute to work at the Energy Corridor, and the area is home to some of the best schools in the city. Plus, it's the best investment/value appreciation in the city....ask a Realtor.
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These are considered more 'mid level remodels', the super-duper remodels wait until spring to list. My point is that these houses are what your average 77079 family calls home. Are the 8 foot ceilings really that bad? Are the exteriors so 1960's ugly to the point of being embarrassing to live in one? The one story house has origional aluminum windows up front, are they so terrible?
Great old trees everywhere:
(photo credit to EasilyAmused)
Kids can play outside all day long in summer -thanks to the old shade trees:
About Stratford not ranking as well as Memorial HS.....that's easy to understand. 77079 single family home parents know not to count the SAT scores, GPA's, TAKS/STARR results of the apartment kids. When you look at the scores of the single family home kids, they score just as well as MHS kids. So no worries about SHS, it just has more low income kids who bring down the curve.
a creek off of the bayou:
They roam & they sing (not the most pleasant tune):
Last edited by LizzySWW; 01-29-2013 at 10:36 AM..
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We've only looked just west of 77024 as he is reluctant to consider anything west of the beltway.
