U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Texas > Houston
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 02-03-2013, 10:00 PM
 
33 posts, read 102,563 times
Reputation: 18

Advertisements

What are you thoughts on this article?

A New Housing Boom? Donít Count on It
By ROBERT J. SHILLER

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/27/bu...ouds.html?_r=0
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 02-03-2013, 10:06 PM
 
15,062 posts, read 19,631,781 times
Reputation: 12219
There's no "Good housing market"
it's either a buyers housing market or a sellers housing market.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-03-2013, 10:56 PM
 
Location: The Greater Houston Metro Area
8,985 posts, read 14,629,883 times
Reputation: 14868
Real estate is local. Some states/cities are still in a slump. Houston is lucky - it's the jobs.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-03-2013, 11:23 PM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
10,425 posts, read 44,561,422 times
Reputation: 10381
The Author is a Professor of Economics. The man never swung a hammer or pushed a saw in his life. He crunches numbers, most taken from the government. And we all know how truthful this govt is.

While I too hear some quivering of lips cautiously saying things are looking up in the housing industry, I see little evidence, not no evidence, just a little. Never forget the damage the current economic depression has caused that will take many decades to correct.

Think of all those who lost their homes through no fault of their own. They will never again be homeowners with their credit, maybe in 10 years if they are lucky. They are eternal renters. So you have that group of potential buyers out of the picture. Now you have many more with something less then an 800 FICO which pretty much eliminates them from qualifying for any mortgage. I think I previously posted only 12 % of United States residents have a FICO that high. Banks just are not lending so the low interest rate advertised is completely irrelevant.

When first time buyers can't buy that first home then the second time buyers can't move up and up the ladder it goes. 30% of all home sales in this country are 2nd home vacation purchases. That kinda suggests to me that the majority of buyers are wealthy and virtually unaffected by the economic depression.

32% of all home sales in America are by investors. Most are all cash purchases.

Our own crappy newspaper here in Houston reported that cash rich investors accounted for almost 4% of all sales in this city where we don't nearly have as many foreclosures as anywhere else. The hardest hit areas like Las Vegas and Phoenix the vast majority of home purchases are by investors snapping up what they feel are deals. Yet purchases by first time buyers continue to fall everywhere. One can't buy a home without a job. That statement holds anywhere but not so much for here where minimum wage jobs are plentiful. But no one ever qualified to buy a home on minimum wage salaries.

Sorry I don't see it and my finger is right on the pulse of my industry. I subscribe to nearly every construction journal read by only industry professionals and unbiased by any govt figures or college professors making side money writing articles.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-04-2013, 12:42 AM
 
16,438 posts, read 19,088,771 times
Reputation: 9513
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post

Sorry I don't see it and my finger is right on the pulse of my industry. I subscribe to nearly every construction journal read by only industry professionals and unbiased by any govt figures or college professors making side money writing articles.
But, but, the real estate industry and mass media say it's time to buy or we'll miss the boat!!

Last edited by Bideshi; 02-04-2013 at 02:07 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-04-2013, 01:22 AM
 
Location: Houston
1,692 posts, read 2,139,266 times
Reputation: 1079
why are they building $180K homes way out in Hockley now if there wasn't a boom?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-04-2013, 05:05 AM
 
Location: Knob Hill
2,064 posts, read 3,244,497 times
Reputation: 2254
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
Now you have many more with something less then an 800 FICO which pretty much eliminates them from qualifying for any mortgage. I think I previously posted only 12 % of United States residents have a FICO that high. Banks just are not lending so the low interest rate advertised is completely irrelevant.
Not sure where you're getting that from, I had a 680 and got 2.99%, banks were falling all over themselves to lend to me. Could have bought WAY more house than I could afford, jumbo mortgage, secondary loans, the works.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-04-2013, 05:36 AM
 
2,198 posts, read 3,272,687 times
Reputation: 1819
Quote:
Originally Posted by BDFP View Post
Not sure where you're getting that from, I had a 680 and got 2.99%, banks were falling all over themselves to lend to me. Could have bought WAY more house than I could afford, jumbo mortgage, secondary loans, the works.
Yeah, I think desertsun is exaggerating, but asking for not too extravagant an amount with that credit score its not surprising you could get a loan. Loans are much more restrictive if your credit score is below 600 or you're stretching your budget. But it's nothing like what desertsun is suggesting. In the end if Fannie/Freddie are still buying mortgages, banks want to become servicers.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-04-2013, 06:14 AM
 
Location: #
9,605 posts, read 14,633,523 times
Reputation: 6282
A lot of 20 somethings are extending their stays in apartments and rentals despite being able to afford to buy.

Can't say I blame them.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-04-2013, 06:25 AM
 
22 posts, read 22,547 times
Reputation: 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
The Author is a Professor of Economics. The man never swung a hammer or pushed a saw in his life. He crunches numbers, most taken from the government. And we all know how truthful this govt is.
While I would normally agree with you here, this isn't just any professor. He is a highly regarded Yale Economics Professor who called both the dot com and housing bubbles before they hit. He is also the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index which is one of the most widely used metrics in regards to housing prices.

I haven't read the article yet, but knowing its from him its definitely worth a read..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Options
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2016 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Texas > Houston
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top