katy-will-be-larger-than-the-city-of-pittsburgh-in-two-years/ (Brookshire, West, Mart: transplants, 2013, mattress)

[Trae713]

Originally Posted by kittyhawk

That's funny. There is no example of an ex-burb that has made a turnaround that I know of. Alief, Aldine, and Spring have all followed this pattern. Area of Cy-Fair ISD and Katy ISD are following as well. No MPC's, many small, disconnected neighborhoods, no HOA involvement as neighborhoods age, lots of apartments filling in vacant land in later years. Look at the crime stats for 77084 and you'll see the present and bleak future for the area.

Don't agree on the apartments. There are way more apartments being built on the south side of 10. There aren't that many new complexes being built up north, and they are not all concentrated in one area either like in Alief. They are more spread out in North Katy. 77084 isn't even that bad, and zip codes 77493 and 77449 are just as old and better than 77084. Also, Katy and Cy-Fair ISD have more going for it than those other districts. The west side of Houston has always been the most wealthy and prosperous side. The energy corridor is pushing out further west into Katy. I don't see it going to the same way as Alief, especially south of Clay and west of Greenhouse Road. North of Clay and west of Mason is going to all be master planned communities.

[kittyhawk]

Originally Posted by Trae713

Don't agree on the apartments. There are way more apartments being built on the south side of 10. There aren't that many new complexes being built up north, and they are not all concentrated in one area either like in Alief. They are more spread out in North Katy. 77084 isn't even that bad, and zip codes 77493 and 77449 are just as old and better than 77084. Also, Katy and Cy-Fair ISD have more going for it than those other districts. The west side of Houston has always been the most wealthy and prosperous side. The energy corridor is pushing out further west into Katy. I don't see it going to the same way as Alief, especially south of Clay and west of Greenhouse Road. North of Clay and west of Mason is going to all be master planned communities.

While, there's no "Club Creek", "Imperial Valley" or "Desoto Street" in that area (Park Row might be the closest thing), the north side is still not perceived to be a desirable place to live because of the vast swaths of small, disconnected neighborhoods that are mostly filled with rental properties. There are a still a ton of vacant parcels on the north side (east of Mason, south of Clay). Many of these will likely become apartment complexes.

Yes, there are more apartments being built on the south side now because the previous landowners are fetching peak value for the little vacant property that's remaining. Although they are all "luxury apartments" now, this could be bad for the south side in the long run once the apartments age or the economy takes a nosedive. However, the difference between the south side and the north side is the quantity of quality homes that were built there. The south side has enough larger home stock and planning to keep the neighborhoods nice even with all the apartments being built. The schools may not fare as well but the neighborhoods should stay nice.

And I'm not at all saying that there aren't some great neighborhoods on the north side. However, just ask the people in the Deerfield Village or Williamsburg Settlement whether they would rather be positioned on the north or south side. The same house in Williamsburg Settlement would likely be double the cost if it were south of I-10. When you are surrounded by KB Homes, Legend Homes, and apartments, it's going to bring your value down. There's nothing wrong with these homes but when that's all you have...

[Trae713]

Like was mentioned earlier, the master planned communities are coming in for the north side. Bridgeland, the new Newland Community, Ventana Lakes, etc. It's not going to be anything like Alief, which became an extension of Southwest Houston. The west side collectively will probably always remain nice because of location. I also don't see what is wrong with KB Home and some of these other builders like Lennar. They all build on the south side too. I wouldn't trust Postwood though. Values are going up in those neighborhoods closer to 10 like the Williamsburg neighborhoods and Lakecrest. The areas that will decline are the ones in the middle off of 529 from Fry Road in east.

[curbur]

Originally Posted by Trae713

Like was mentioned earlier, the master planned communities are coming in for the north side. Bridgeland, the new Newland Community, Ventana Lakes, etc. It's not going to be anything like Alief, which became an extension of Southwest Houston. The west side collectively will probably always remain nice because of location. I also don't see what is wrong with KB Home and some of these other builders like Lennar. They all build on the south side too. I wouldn't trust Postwood though. Values are going up in those neighborhoods closer to 10 like the Williamsburg neighborhoods and Lakecrest. The areas that will decline are the ones in the middle off of 529 from Fry Road in east.

I'd agree except for the fact that fm 529 will likely be the northern border of the 'area in decline' as opposed to the middle thoroughfare. I would argue that will be W Little York or Keith Harrow. Also, there's that really nice mpc that's going in west of Katy, King's Crossing if I'm not mistaken.. actually come to think of it Trae, you may have been the one who informed me via another post of that place.

edit: I am mistaken; it's Cane's Island I was thinking of.

[usc619]

Originally Posted by curbur

I'd agree except for the fact that fm 529 will likely be the northern border of the 'area in decline' as opposed to the middle thoroughfare.

Of course you would take exception to that area of Cypress, lol

[curbur]

Originally Posted by usc619

Of course you would take exception to that area of Cypress, lol

Right, and it's a dead horse that I'll beat continuously on here until someone can refute the points I made in our original discussion. Funny how you'll keep disagreeing and pointing out that I have a problem with the misconception, yet you never really provide any evidence as to why you back that false premise, other than it's the common opinion. Funny also how I didn't bring up the Katy vs Cypress thing at all as this thread isn't about that, but we can certainly go there if you'd like to revive it again.

[kittyhawk]

Originally Posted by Trae713

Like was mentioned earlier, the master planned communities are coming in for the north side. Bridgeland, the new Newland Community, Ventana Lakes, etc. It's not going to be anything like Alief, which became an extension of Southwest Houston. The west side collectively will probably always remain nice because of location. I also don't see what is wrong with KB Home and some of these other builders like Lennar. They all build on the south side too. I wouldn't trust Postwood though. Values are going up in those neighborhoods closer to 10 like the Williamsburg neighborhoods and Lakecrest. The areas that will decline are the ones in the middle off of 529 from Fry Road in east.

My original point is that neighborhoods zoned to Mayde Creek and Morton Ranch are hosed. IF the new higher end communities west of 99 can attract enough buyers quick enough, the new high school being built near Peek and Stockdick could be OK. Otherwise, these new areas just become Mission Bend, a nice planned community that has been taken down by the areas around it.

My guess is though, that when this school opens in 2017, there will not be enough high school age kids in the higher end communities to make up a large portion of it. It will be built primarily to relive the overcrowding at Morton Ranch and thus will look at lot more like Morton Ranch than Cinco Ranch, for better or for worse.

[Tassy001]

At some point this extreme growth will stop....and at that point those neighborhoods way out will be the first to decline......meaning homes will sit empty.

People will eventually stop moving here...it has happened before.

[Trae713]

Originally Posted by kittyhawk

My original point is that neighborhoods zoned to Mayde Creek and Morton Ranch are hosed. IF the new higher end communities west of 99 can attract enough buyers quick enough, the new high school being built near Peek and Stockdick could be OK. Otherwise, these new areas just become Mission Bend, a nice planned community that has been taken down by the areas around it.

My guess is though, that when this school opens in 2017, there will not be enough high school age kids in the higher end communities to make up a large portion of it. It will be built primarily to relive the overcrowding at Morton Ranch and thus will look at lot more like Morton Ranch than Cinco Ranch, for better or for worse.

We are just going to have to agree to disagree then. Mayde Creek may be a little worse than Morton Ranch, but Morton Ranch has good blue collar neighborhoods zoned to it, especially west of Mason, south of Morton Ranch Road. A lot of these neighborhoods have been around since the late 1970s to early 80s. I don't believe these neighborhoods closer to 99 and/or 10 are going to decline and become Alief. The new master planned communities will then be like a Cinco Ranch across the tollway from far western Mission Bend. Not to mention these MPCs together will be larger than Mission Bend and be planned developments.

It would only be a few short years after the new high school opens that the majority of kids there would be from the new MPCs and neighborhoods like the Parish or Settlement or Lakecrest. It would not be like Cinco Ranch High or Seven Lakes, but it would be like Katy or Taylor and less like Morton Ranch or Mayde Creek.

[jalam321]

What do you guys think about the area more west of Katy along I-10. There is a new MPC in Brookshire, Willow Creek Farms. Do you think that will become part of Katy or the "new katy"? Looks like there is lots of new homes built going West. Do you think there will be more development north of I10 along grandparkway 99 (Ventana Lakes 99&clay area)?? Or more development on I10 west in Brookshire (Willow Creek Farm i10&pederson area)?? Which will be the "better/nicer" area?