Tropical storm Harvey on the way (Houston, West: beach, activity, land)

[Wardendresden]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

Nice ancedotal evidence. Global warming isnt the consensus and there is plenty of conflicting data with it. Climate change is completely different and something the Earth goes through natural. Humans contribute about .002% to CO2 emissions (a tiny amount). The industrial revolution was way worse for our environment than how things are done now.

If global warming is what you think it is, then why is the Antartica ice getting so much larger?

It's not antecdotal evidence, it's scientific and historical evidence.

Where did you get your MISinformation that the Antarctic ice is getting larger?

New research shows a major section of west Antarctica's ice sheet will completely melt in coming centuries and probably raise sea levels higher than previously predicted, revealing another impact from the world's changing climate.
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The glacial retreat there "appears unstoppable," said Rignot, lead author of a joint NASA-University of California Irvine paper that used 40 years of satellite data and aircraft studies.
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The rate at which the area's ice is melting has increased 77% since 1973, and there are several reasons, researchers said.

Ice melt in part of Antarctic 'appears unstoppable,' NASA says - CNN
or this

Antarctic ice is melting so fast that the stability of the whole continent could be at risk by 2100, scientists have warned.

Widespread collapse of Antarctic ice shelves – floating extensions of land ice projecting into the sea – could pave the way for dramatic rises in sea level.

The new research predicts a doubling of surface melting of the ice shelves by 2050. By the end of the century, the melting rate could surpass the point associated with ice shelf collapse, it is claimed.
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The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, was based on satellite observations of ice surface melting and climate simulations up to the year 2100.

It showed that if greenhouse gas emissions continued at their present rate, the Antarctic ice shelves would be in danger of collapse by the century’s end.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...t-risk-by-2100
and finally:

Skeptic arguments that Antarctica is gaining ice frequently hinge on an error of omission, namely ignoring the difference between land ice and sea ice.

In glaciology and particularly with respect to Antarctic ice, not all things are created equal. Let us consider the following differences. Antarctic land ice is the ice which has accumulated over thousands of years on the Antarctica landmass itself through snowfall. This land ice therefore is actually stored ocean water that once fell as precipitation. Sea ice in Antarctica is quite different as it is ice which forms in salt water primarily during the winter months. When land ice melts and flows into the oceans global sea levels rise on average; when sea ice melts sea levels do not change measurably.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/ant...aining-ice.htm

While I think it is unlikely climate change CAUSED Harvey, most scientists believe it is the INTENSITY of the storms--particularly with regard to rainfall---that will now impact storms.

I'm an old (retired) insurance guy and I was a ratemaker (self-taught) for the last fifteen years of my career. Right before I left the industry there was discussion among actuaries that due to increasing severity of storms ratemakers ought to consider changing from a "leveling" ratemaking mechanism of surcharges from a 20 year period to a 10 year period to better reflect what was happening in the nation. At that time--more than ten years ago---state insurance departments were denying the early requests to change to a 10 year period, knowing premiums would begin going up for all kinds of property.

All property--even here in Colorado---is affected by hurricane damage. Insurance companies buy what is called reinsurance from other insurance companies so that all of them are interconnected by large natural disasters. And if you live in a coastal area, I wouldn't be surprised to see homeowner premiums reach 5% of the value of the home--or more--within the next five to ten years.

[cBach]

Originally Posted by Texyn

This is an epic, enjoyable storm, rainfall totals for the books (we are talking feet, not inches, feet!). I hope to see rainfall totals above 60 inches by the end of this month.

Note: Of course I definitely hope that casualties don't happen, and property damage, if any, is minimal.

You are sadistic.

[kab0906]

Originally Posted by kab0906

This is from our cousin. She lives near Cypress Creek. Water starting coming in their home last night. They moved stuff upstairs and that's where they are now.

To the nice poster who repped me their concern, thanks.


They are now being evacuated.


I checked their location on federal flood maps. They are in the 500 year zone. It's amazing to see.

[DabOnEm]

Originally Posted by Wardendresden

It's not antecdotal evidence, it's scientific and historical evidence.

Where did you get your MISinformation that the Antarctic ice is getting larger?
Ice melt in part of Antarctic 'appears unstoppable,' NASA says - CNN
or this
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...t-risk-by-2100
and finally:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/ant...aining-ice.htm

I'm an old (retired) insurance guy and I was a ratemaker (self-taught) for the last fifteen years of my career. Right before I left the industry there was discussion among actuaries that due to increasing severity of storms ratemakers ought to consider changing from a "leveling" ratemaking mechanism of surcharges from a 20 year period to a 10 year period to better reflect what was happening in the nation. At that time--more than ten years ago---state insurance departments were denying the early requests to change to a 10 year period, knowing premiums would begin going up for all kinds of property.

All property--even here in Colorado---is affected by hurricane damage. Insurance companies buy what is called reinsurance from other insurance companies so that all of them are interconnected by large natural disasters. And if you live in a coastal area, I wouldn't be surprised to see homeowner premiums reach 5% of the value of the home--or more--within the next five to ten years.

Well this comes straight from NASA and not filtered through the CNN/MSM lens, who have their own political spin to it:

The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice. According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.


“We’re essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,” said Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study, which was published on Oct. 30 in the Journal of Glaciology. “Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica – there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.” Zwally added that his team “measured small height changes over large areas, as well as the large changes observed over smaller areas.”


“The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away,” Zwally said.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard...er-than-losses

So there goes that.

Originally Posted by Wardendresden

While I think it is unlikely climate change CAUSED Harvey, most scientists believe it is the INTENSITY of the storms--particularly with regard to rainfall---that will now impact storms.

Please prove that storms today are more intense than they have ever been. There are historical records of hurricanes from the 18th and 19th Century being as powerful as the storms that we see today. You talk about massive rainfall, but that's only happening because of the high-pressure system that is stalling it. Without it, Harvey would be in Canada today.

It's funny how all these storms can happen, but the minute one acts different than most others, global warming alarmists come out from under the ground. Climate change is real (and a natural occurrence). Global warming is a farce.

[DRob4JC]

The winds have definitely flipped and it is noticeably cooler now with this batch of rain in Fort Bend. Co. Hopefully that means Harvey is moving instead of sitting still. This feels more like a hurricane or tropical storm with the winds.

Some weather stations are reporting below 70 degrees.

[move4ward]

http://www.khou.com/weather/harvey/f...oods/468579903

A family of 6 drowned while evacuating. Death toll could have been much worse with millions of vehicles on the road running out of gas and stuck for 20+ hours.

[TommyCarcetti]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

Well this comes straight from NASA and not filtered through the CNN/MSM lens, who have their own political spin to it:


https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard...er-than-losses

So there goes that.




Please prove that storms today are more intense than they have ever been. There are historical records of hurricanes from the 18th and 19th Century being as powerful as the storms that we see today. You talk about massive rainfall, but that's only happening because of the high-pressure system that is stalling it. Without it, Harvey would be in Canada today.

It's funny how all these storms can happen, but the minute one acts different than most others, global warming alarmists come out from under the ground. Climate change is real (and a natural occurrence). Global warming is a farce.

"As if Houston's natural elements weren't challenging enough, intense downpours, measuring at least 10 inches (250 millimeters), have doubled in frequency during the last three decades. Rising average temperatures have packed 7 percent more moisture into the atmosphere over Houston. Contributing to that is warmer water in the Gulf of Mexico."

Hurricane Harvey the latest threat to flood-prone Houston

Is that enough proof for you? Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

[kab0906]

Originally Posted by TommyCarcetti

Is that enough proof for you? Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

You'll never convince him. They all say you can't prove it wasn't like this hundreds of years ago and think they won the argument.

[DabOnEm]

Originally Posted by kab0906

You'll never convince him. They all say you can't prove it wasn't like this hundreds of years ago and think they won the argument.

Looks like climate change (again, not the same thing as global warming )

What I'd like to now is how many 10 inch rain events did Houston have before those three decades. Doubled since when? Has there been periods earlier on with similar amounts of rainfall but we back in the 1800s/early 1900s?

[TommyCarcetti]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

Looks like climate change (again, not the same thing as global warming )

What I'd like to now is how many 10 inch rain events did Houston have before those three decades. Doubled since when? Has there been periods earlier on with similar amounts of rainfall but we back in the 1800s/early 1900s?

Do the research yourself. The rest of us are tired of wasting our time. If this storm isn't enough to make you open to the idea that something is seriously wrong from a climate perspective than I don't know what is.