The foreclosure wave that's going to hit Houston (Woodway, Buffalo: attorney, house)

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by bubbyK

Firstly, congratulations!
You attacked your opponent's character or personal traits in an attempt to undermine their argument.
Ad hominem attacks can take the form of overtly attacking somebody, or more subtly casting doubt on their character or personal attributes as a way to discredit their argument. The result of an ad hom attack can be to undermine someone's case without actually having to engage with it. https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/ad-hominem.

Unless you have something factual to rest upon, I think you squarely lose in this instance.

Secondly, "Homefacts" is built by ATTOM data solutions. The same data source you referenced in your Chronicle piece. https://www.attomdata.com/homefacts/.

Thirdly, I own properties in Houston, Dallas and Austin, however the bulk of my properties are here in Houston as well as my current residence. I do travel between different cities frequently, so we pay $80 for 2800 sq ft in Dallas, $80 in Houston for various sizes from 2000-3800 sq ft and $110 in Austin for 3200 sq ft for inquiring minds.

Fourthly, I would contend that waves of foreclosures, just as housing booms are limited to local markets and local events, but State and National numbers can be used as points of reference.

Now, let's try again please. That is, unless you lack the acuity to engage on an logical level. In which case, I'll gladly take the win and move on.

No you need to post the link that directs us to the exact data you used , not to the homepage of the site. [ Mod cut: personal ]

[bubbyK]

[quote=Jack Lance;49604766]No you need to post the link that directs us to the exact data you used , not to the homepage of the site. [Mod cut: personal/bickering]... click on a link and type "Houston", "Dallas", "Austin" in the search parameters.

Moderator cut: Link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed
Moderator cut: Link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed
Moderator cut: Link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed

[Cowboys fan in Houston]

You have to understand certain posters. Some can be so defensive of Their city it's downright comical. They can't see this cites flaws and shortcomings and just like every city we have them. There's no point in trying to be objective with someone who views his city like a four year old views their mommy. Everything mommy does is perfect and wonderful and anyone who criticizes mommy is bad.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by bubbyK

[Mod cut: bickering/personal]... click on a link and type "Houston", "Dallas", "Austin" in the search parameters.

Moderator cut: Link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed
Moderator cut: Link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed
Moderator cut: Link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed

Like they say crap in, crap out, I have no idea where Homefacts gets its numbers but they are highly misleading. According to Realty trac the foreclosure rate in Harris County is higher than that of Dallas County but not by 240% as you posted. That's just hyperbolic...

Dallas County Real Estate Statistics and Foreclosure Trends Summary
Dallas County, TX
1 in every 2846

Harris County Real Estate Statistics and Foreclosure Trends Summary
Harris County, TX
1 in every 2221

But it really doesn't matter because despite your insistence on making this a comparison of Houston to Dallas it isn't. Your OP states there is going to be a foreclosure "wave" to hit Houston, then you post it is already here, which it is not. The Greater Houston Partnership has posted the numbers on the true extent of damage from Harvey and it turns out the devastation was not as extensive as people thought and a relatively few number of homes suffered major damage. All of our major job creators escaped serious damage during Harvey so job and population growth will continue post Harvey pretty much as it was before the storm. So don't get your hopes up of a wave of flood victims walking away from underwater mortgages.

http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/...t_a_Glance.pdf

You posted it will take a year for this to play out, that is one point we can agree on, but It appears to me that many of those flooded homes are going to retain more value than you think.

[Altuve]

Originally Posted by Pine to Vine

I wonder if anyone knows what happened to the overall real estate picture after Allison. I know there are a couple of realtors who regularly post here. It seems clear that flooded properties would be abandoned. But wouldn’t that create an immediate premium for housing that didn’t flood?

I flooded during Allison, live close to the Medical Center inside the loop. The builders jumped on the lots for sale and built new homes that were elevated. The overall neighborhood value skyrocketed starting about a year after Allison. Their might have been a slight decline in the first 6 months or so after the storm. Buyers still asked if homes flooded for about 3-5 years after Allison, after that, no one seemed to care. Everyone just attributed it to a once in a lifetime storm.

The difference between now and Allison is many of the same ranch homes have flooded 4 times (Allison, tax day storm, Memorial day storm and Harvey). A number of these folks just fixed their low-lying ranch homes after prior storms. I don't think many are fixing their homes now. In fact, I don't believe that they can get flood insurance anymore unless they raise the homes. And that is a very expensive thing to do. But the lot values are still fairly high, and the lots that have gone up for sale the last two weeks have been selling fast.

I'm guessing that inside the loop there is, and always will be, a huge demand due to the proximity to everything. Not sure if the suburbs that flooded will hold their value.

[bubbyK]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

Like they say crap in, crap out, I have no idea where Homefacts gets its numbers but they are highly misleading. According to Realty trac the foreclosure rate in Harris County is higher than that of Dallas County but not by 240% as you posted. That's just hyperbolic...

Dallas County Real Estate Statistics and Foreclosure Trends Summary
Dallas County, TX
1 in every 2846

Harris County Real Estate Statistics and Foreclosure Trends Summary
Harris County, TX
1 in every 2221

But it really doesn't matter because despite your insistence on making this a comparison of Houston to Dallas it isn't. Your OP states there is going to be a foreclosure "wave" to hit Houston, then you post it is already here, which it is not. The Greater Houston Partnership has posted the numbers on the true extent of damage from Harvey and it turns out the devastation was not as extensive as people thought and a relatively few number of homes suffered major damage. All of our major job creators escaped serious damage during Harvey so job and population growth will continue post Harvey pretty much as it was before the storm. So don't get your hopes up of a wave of flood victims walking away from underwater mortgages.

http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/...t_a_Glance.pdf

You posted it will take a year for this to play out, that is one point we can agree on, but It appears to me that many of those flooded homes are going to retain more value than you think.

[Mod cut: personal]
You just linked county data not city data. Apples and oranges my dear sir. Apples and oranges.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by bubbyK

[Mod cut: personal]
You just linked county data not city data. Apples and oranges my dear sir. Apples and oranges.

So you are posting that this "wave" of foreclosures is only going to happen in the city of Houston and not Greater Houston as a whole ? This "wave" of foreclosures that will be the aftermath of the flooding Harvey caused ? Did only the city of Houston flood ?


OK we agree on a second point I cannot understand your thinking on this, I'm beat

[texas7]

The investors are shopping in. Saw a really cute house in the woodlands on HAR for 100k. Sold as is, walls cut out. Sold in a snap. Lots of first-time flooded in Harvey homes will be a great bargain. That was an historic rain not something that frequently happens.

[kittyhawk]

Originally Posted by gwarnecke

I think the effect will be ambiguous.

People who walk away from their homes will still need a place to live. If their credit is shot, they'll have to rent. If there's a demand for rental properties, flooded homes will be bought and rehabbed by investors who then rent them out (and probably sell in 5-10 years when Harvey is a distant memory).

I think the flood might actually accelerate gentrification in certain parts of town. For example, Nottingham Forest is a very desirable neighborhood that, pre-Harvey, had lots of rehabbed 1960s homes and a very small number of new builds. Now that flooded homes are being listed for lot value, expect to see an uptick in new builds with elevated slabs. Especially if the gradual oil price recovery continues.

This. Desirable locations are still desirable locations as long as Houston's economy is humming. There may be a few exceptions (if you've flooded multiple times or live in a designated flood plain). However, there's not going to be a mass exodus of people from Bellaire, Kingwood, southeast Katy or people living south of Memorial and north of Briar Forest. Humans have really short memories after disasters. Just look at how many times people rebuild in Meyerland. You wouldn't even know the Bolivar Peninsula had been destroyed by a hurricane less than 10 years ago.

[jakedaniel]

[quote=kittyhawk;49608771]There may be a few exceptions (if you've flooded multiple times or live in a designated flood plain).

Will flood maps be redrawn, though? Will Base Flood Elevation be changed to reflect the new high-water marks? Not just asking about City of Houston, but the Greater Houston Area.