Hurricane Ike Watch!!! (ALL Ike posts in here please!) (Houston: price, safest)

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by jflores

you seem to be from the same part of town, im over here off of willowbend by the tracks....what should i expect??

Im useto blizzards up in NYC, this is foreign territory.

We're looking to be on the "clean" (western) side of the storm center.

That said, we shouldn't see sustained winds like what you see in the reports right now.

I'm expecting, at its peak, sustained winds around minimal hurricane force (~75mph) and heavy rain, with some possible street flooding. Isolated small tornadoes are a possibility. Chances are, you're going to be all right. Just be ready to be without power for a little while afterwards, maybe even a few days.

[jflores]

Originally Posted by jfre81

We're looking to be on the "clean" (western) side of the storm center.

That said, we shouldn't see sustained winds like what you see in the reports right now.

I'm expecting, at its peak, sustained winds around minimal hurricane force (~75mph) and heavy rain, with some possible street flooding. Isolated small tornadoes are a possibility. Chances are, you're going to be all right. Just be ready to be without power for a little while afterwards, maybe even a few days.

fair enough, i even went the extreme of boarding up some windows. better safe than sorry. but i got some jack and ima freeze up some cokes.

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by jflores

but i got some jack and ima freeze up some cokes.

There ya go.

Turn on Channel 11 (KHOU) - they're taking calls from people. Gene Norman and Neil Frank are shooting straight instead of drumming up the hysterics.

There is the chance that Ike becomes Category 3 before landfall, but I don't see that making a big difference where we are unless the track shifts back westward, which I'm not anticipating.

Mind you, I'm strictly a layman.

[jfre81]

Let it just roll through so I can quit saying we're overdue.

Heh, that rhymed.

[pba]

Originally Posted by jfre81

We're looking to be on the "clean" (western) side of the storm center.

That said, we shouldn't see sustained winds like what you see in the reports right now.

I'm expecting, at its peak, sustained winds around minimal hurricane force (~75mph) and heavy rain, with some possible street flooding. Isolated small tornadoes are a possibility. Chances are, you're going to be all right. Just be ready to be without power for a little while afterwards, maybe even a few days.

Sorry, just a California boy's perspective here....talk to me about the oil refineries. How many refineries are we talking about? Hundreds that could be affected by the storms??? More?????

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by pba

Sorry, just a California boy's perspective here....talk to me about the oil refineries. How many refineries are we talking about? Hundreds that could be affected by the storms??? More?????

Well, I grew up in Texas City where a large complex of them is located. I couldn't give you a number - they're all up and down the coast here. Large clusters of them are in Texas City, Brazoria County and along the Houston Ship Channel, as well as Baytown. There are more on the other side of the bay in and around Port Arthur.

Texas City is protected by a levee system, not unlike that of New Orleans but on a smaller scale, but it's only good to hold back a Category 3-type surge and only if there are no failures like there were in NOLA during Katrina. The difference is that Texas City, like everything else here, isn't below sea level like NOLA. The water will have somewhere to go. What you could have, in the case of Texas City and its refineries, is that a large storm surge overlaps or breaks the levees, flooding the city and the refineries. That would put them out of commission for weeks, maybe even a month or so. If this doesn't happen, there won't be much of a disruption - if gasoline production is what you're curious about. This holds true for the others, although I might not be quite as familiar with what's standing between the water and the refineries in each spot.

[MissDaisy]

Originally Posted by jfre81

Don't. The main thing you need to worry about up there is tornadoes, and that could just as easily happen to you in Dallas.

jfre81--we are north of the woodlands in conroe..are tornadoes really a huge concern? BIG ones??? We are west of I-45 in the hills off Longmire Rd. Thanks!...never been through this before, so sorry to be wimpy..

[yukon]

Originally Posted by pba

Sorry, just a California boy's perspective here....talk to me about the oil refineries. How many refineries are we talking about? Hundreds that could be affected by the storms??? More?????

One-fifth of US refining capacity is located in the TX strike zone, I'm not sure how much more is in the LA waters in the cone. Even if damage is minimal, loss of power can keep the refineries shuttered for a while. From the AP wire:

The oil and gas industry was closely watching the storm because it was headed straight for the nation's biggest complex of refineries and petrochemical plants. The upper Texas coast accounts for one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do. That means motorists can expect higher prices at the pump, though how much higher depends largely on how long refineries are shuttered after the storm.

Exxon Mobil Corp., Valero Energy Corp., ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil Co. began halting operations as Ike closed in. Dow Chemical Co. started closing up its enormous Freeport complex, home to 75 plants producing some 27 billion pounds of chemical products each year.

BASF, the world's largest chemical company with 14 manufacturing sites in the Gulf Coast region, also began shutting down some operations. Spokesman Daniel Pepitone said each site has a hurricane plan that outlines detailed steps for securing plants, and precautions such as tying down hoses and taking down scaffolding began days ago.

Industry officials said their refineries and chemical plants are designed to withstand high winds. But power outages could still knock them out of service.

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by MissDaisy

jfre81--we are north of the woodlands in conroe..are tornadoes really a huge concern? BIG ones??? We are west of I-45 in the hills off Longmire Rd. Thanks!...never been through this before, so sorry to be wimpy..

Hurricane/tropical storm tornadoes aren't very big. We're not talking the mile-wide monsters you typically hear about in north/central Texas or the Midwest. They're small, don't last long and might come down and hit something and dissipate. Think of it like darts going at a dartboard. Any one spot is not all that likely to be hit, but it could.

You're still going to get some rain and wind and there is the chance of a tornado, but the odds of you not getting one are probably better than the odds of getting one. Be prepared for anything - you might want to have an interior room like a closet or bathroom with some basic supplies ready (like drinking water and a first-aid kit). Likely you won't have to hide in there, but have a plan in case the worst happens. You're gonna survive.

[jfre81]

City of Houston - Wind Data Information

Get an idea of what you can expect here (Houston city limits only).