Hurricane Ike Watch!!! (ALL Ike posts in here please!) (Houston: live, ratings)

[kcatheart]

Let's say the eye hits Corpus or even a little N of it, what affect would it have in Houston?

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by kcatheart

Let's say the eye hits Corpus or even a little N of it, what affect would it have in Houston?

Depends on how big/strong it is when it hits. Probably some wind and rain, but nothing major.

[pnc66]

Originally Posted by kcatheart

Let's say the eye hits Corpus or even a little N of it, what affect would it have in Houston?

It really depends on how big (in size) and how strong the storm is. When Dolly hit Brownsville earlier this summer, we got quite a bit of rain and some wind, yet a few years ago, (2003?) Claudette (I think that was the name) hit closer to us in Port O'Connor and we got nothing from that one.... at least not where I was north of I-10.

Clear as mud, right?

[pnc66]

Originally Posted by jfre81

All joking aside here, the forecast track doesn't look too encouraging. But it's still on the other side of Florida, and this track has changed several times already. Just keep an eye on it and be prepared.

And if it comes time to evacuate, think of the people on the coast first. I'm looking at you, people in Cypress and The Woodlands and other parts inland.

I think part of the massive exodus from Rita was because of Katrina being so fresh in everyone's mind and that's possibly why so many people so far inland panicked like they did.

I'm in Cy-Fair and we've already decided long before now we most likely aren't going anywhere unless it's a monster storm - even then I can't imagine voluntarily getting stuck in that traffic jam!

When Rita hit, we were living near Plantersville, but in a mobile home on very wooded property, and we were getting mixed messages on whether to evacuate or not. One "expert" said not to because we were far enough inland and another one said to evacuate if you were in a mobile home. I never did figure out what we were "supposed" to do. As it turned out, we couldn't go anywhere because my boyfriend's employer in the Woodlands threatened everyone who left with termination and the traffic was absolutely horrendous. He had to go to work and it took him over 5 hours to get home Wednesday and Thursday and used up all of our gas.

By the time they (the evil employer) decided to "allow" the employees the time off on Friday - the day the storm was supposed to hit, there was no gas to be had anywhere, so we rode it out at home watching the pine trees swaying in the yard. NOT fun! I was a nervous wreck all that week - probably from watching the news too much!

[jfre81]

I was living in Alvin when Claudette hit and there was just a little wind. I don't even recall rain.

[Mom2Feebs]

Ike is enormous right now as a Cat 1--it is 350 miles. Katrina was 400. If it becomes a Cat 3 or 4, and hits north of Corpus, we will feel it. Wind and rain, some strong gusts. We'll be on the dirty side of it.

Carla is a good example of a large Cat 4 storm hitting north of Corpus and affecting Houston. You can read an eyewitness account of a Houstonian in the midst of Carla here.

[jfre81]

Carla I think hit (the eye, anyway) around Port O'Connor/Port Lavaca. Basically the midpoint of the Texas coast between Sabine Pass and Brownsville. It pretty much swamped the whole coast.

[pikato]

I don't think Houston would be that affected, but for people living around Houston it could suck - if you live out but work in the city

I'm 20 miles sw from Freeport and when the Tropical Storm hit Port O'Connor in '03 our house flooded and did a lot of damage.

[Mom2Feebs]

From NOAA.gov (I'm pretty sure we can copy and paste this):

************************************************** *****
000
WTNT44 KNHC 100848
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81 KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75 KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.5N 84.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 24.7N 87.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 89.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 27.5N 96.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 31.5N 98.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0600Z 34.5N 97.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

************************************************** *********


For some reason, the BoatUS.com spaghetti model is showing the model from 2:39 pm yesterday...hasn't updated.

[Rocket Power]

Am I the only one who gets the impression some of these Weather Channel people get excited when a hurricane is threatening to slam into the U.S.