Harris County Demographics Changing Rapidly (Houston, Baytown: real estate, 2010, apartments)

[kittyhawk]

I was browsing through the TEA Accountability website and was amazed at the demographic shift that is taking place in unincorporated Harris County. In particular, in the last 10 years, Cy-Fair and Katy ISD's have gone from very low numbers of "econmically disadvantaged" students to significant numbers. Almost 40% of Cy-Fair students are on free and reduced meals. This means that virtually all growth in these districts can be attributed to poor folks moving into these areas (offseting any movement into the areas by other groups). Is this the case for the Houston region in general? Is there a mass exodus of highly educated folks from these areas or just tremendous growth by other groups?

What will Katy and Cy-Fair look like in another 10 years?

[EasilyAmused]

I don't think people are moving out, I just think more people are being pressured out of Houston due to land and housing prices. Those areas you posted are growing quickly, but they are certainly more affordable than the nice/safe areas in Houston. I would venture to say that Conroe, Tomball, Klein,Spring, Fort Bend, etc are seeing similar things. The fringe areas in all those districts are still pretty rural and more affordable.

So to answer your question: It's tremedous growth by "other" groups...some of which might actually be highly educated yet economically disadvantaged. You never know.

[hsw]

Highly educated people, esp senior energy execs and financiers, probably have chosen to reside in same River Oaks/Memorial suburban areas for past 20yrs and have long since opted for private schools for their kids

Same stable suburban dynamics exist in SF or LA....the most affluent suburban areas (Woodside/Atherton in SF or Brentwood/Palisades in LA) are remarkably white or Jewish (w/a few wealthy Indian-born Stanford/Berkeley-educated engineers for greater "diversity" in Woodside/Atherton), and private schools are part of basic COL

It's the exurbs (AKA foreclosureland) of any of these big towns with degenerating suburban demographics and the legendary 60+min drives to their secretarial/retailing jobs (if they still have a job)

[TexasTheKid]

It's the new urbanism. People have realized they traded security for convenience a little too hastily and have reconsidered living in the 'burbs. It's far from everything and not really any safer, plus now days white people aren't mortally afraid of black people, so it just doesn't make any sense to live so far away anymore. So, more people are returning to the cities, driving up the price of real estate, which in turns leads to the poor people getting pushed out. Personally, I think anyone who owns property between beltway 8 and highway 6/1960 (excepting the west side) should sell now because it'll be nothing but the slummiest slums within ten to twenty years. I haven't consulted the I Ching to verify this yet, but I'll let you know when I do.

[EasilyAmused]

Originally Posted by TexasTheKid

It's the new urbanism. People have realized they traded security for convenience a little too hastily and have reconsidered living in the 'burbs. It's far from everything and not really any safer, plus now days white people aren't mortally afraid of black people, so it just doesn't make any sense to live so far away anymore. So, more people are returning to the cities, driving up the price of real estate, which in turns leads to the poor people getting pushed out. Personally, I think anyone who owns property between beltway 8 and highway 6/1960 (excepting the west side) should sell now because it'll be nothing but the slummiest slums within ten to twenty years. I haven't consulted the I Ching to verify this yet, but I'll let you know when I do.

There is definately a lot of "moving back in."

[crbcrbrgv]

Here's a thought, people. Maybe poorer people are moving out to these areas because they prefer their children go to good schools as opposed to crappy ones.

[tstone]

When the 2010 census comes out for the entire Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown region, we'll see where the growth was located compared to the 2000 census. Same goes for the 2020. We'll really see if there is a huge influx back to the city. There will be some good examples of areas getting more dense but as a whole, I don't believe anything will be as drastic as some in here would like you to believe. IMO the city core will continue to get more dense and the burbs will sprawl out even farther. The economy will ebb and flow as it always does. Remember we are still in sprawled-out Texas, and that's what a lot of people migrate here for.

[TexasTheKid]

Originally Posted by tstone

When the 2010 census comes out for the entire Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown region, we'll see where the growth was located compared to the 2000 census. Same goes for the 2020. We'll really see if there is a huge influx back to the city. There will be some good examples of areas getting more dense but as a whole, I don't believe anything will be as drastic as some in here would like you to believe. IMO the city core will continue to get more dense and the burbs will sprawl out even farther. The economy will ebb and flow as it always does. Remember we are still in sprawled-out Texas, and that's what a lot of people migrate here for.

I have no doubts the 'burbs will continue to sprawl out further either, nor do I think the rate at which that'll occur will ebb any time soon either. However, the increased density will happen in the loop at the same time. Until more 'burbs become full-fledged business centers in their own right, there will be a critical mass to outward expansion.

[Callo]

It's overdevelopment. Too many apartments.

[Mr. Football]

I've seen the State's demographic forecasting models. Most (if not all) show the Anglo population decreasing in Harris County with the Hispanic population exploding.

Some models are pretty grim, showing just about half a million Anglos left residing in Harris County in 30-40 years. Of course those models show the whites moving out to Montgomery and Waller, which will gain roughly a million residents. Fort Bend will gain population, and will be as mixed as Harris Co.

Overall in Texas, Anglos will become a minority group in 5 or 6 years (around 2015).

2008 Methodology for Texas Population Projections