Metropolitan area definition (Birmingham, Huntsville, Hoover: 2013, chapel, living)

[RocketDawg]

Think there's any chance of the Huntsville Metropolitan area including Decatur in the next census, as it should be? I don't know of anyone who doesn't speak of the two cities virtually as one. Even the airlines call the destination Huntsville-Decatur. In fact, Madison will almost certainly be >50,000 by then, so the name would have to be "Huntsville-Decatur-Madison Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area".

It's possible that Marshall County should also be included, as it once was (depends on commuters). Jackson County, probably not since it's considered part of Chattanooga unless I'm mistaken, even though I think most residents from Scottsboro west consider themselves to have Huntsville connections.

[AU HSV]

Madison and Limestone are the designated counties in the MSA. What could change is the addition of Lincoln County Tennessee and how they handle Morgan County since Huntsville has now annexed into Morgan.
Marshall is possible if the commuting numbers add up. The 2020 census is important and all US citizens should participate.
The Combined Statistical area includes counties;

DeKalb
Lawrence
Limestone
Madison
Marshall
Morgan
with approximately 774,480 living within the CSA per Wikipedia

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by AU HSV

Madison and Limestone are the designated counties in the MSA. What could change is the addition of Lincoln County Tennessee and how they handle Morgan County since Huntsville has now annexed into Morgan.
Marshall is possible if the commuting numbers add up. The 2020 census is important and all US citizens should participate.
The Combined Statistical area includes counties;

DeKalb
Lawrence
Limestone
Madison
Marshall
Morgan
with approximately 774,480 living within the CSA per Wikipedia

True, but the defined area is subject to change. Birmingham added counties (3, I think) when Hoover "grew up", so now it's known as the Birmingham-Hoover MSA. Knoxville added a few counties not too long ago. So it's not out of the question that Huntsville could add counties too. Atlanta added some not too long ago (counties in Georgia are, on average, about half the land area as in Alabama ... that's one reason Atlanta has so many in it's MSA. That, and it's so darn large).

[Southlander]

Decatur is an MSA that includes Lawrence County.
Dcatur does not want to be part of Huntsville's MSA. Too many things already bypass Decatur and go to Huntsville or Madison because the larger population is there. We'd just lose out even more.

[cjseliga]

I'm no statistician, but there are posters on here in other forums that know this better than me.

The way MSA's are created/expanded/split, it all has to do with people, where they live and where they work. I think you need a certain % of people to live in area X and commute and work in Area Y, before the census will combine counties or maybe even break up MSA's into smaller ones.

An example, I think originally it was the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill MSA, then maybe last census or the one before that they split Durham-Chapel Hill into their own MSA and then Raleigh became a separate MSA, which is now the Raleigh-Cary MSA.

Now, not to confuse you even more, if you combine the Durham-Chapel Hill MSA and the Raleigh-Cary MSA you get the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill CSA!

[BamaDave]

Originally Posted by cjseliga

The way MSA's are created/expanded/split, it all has to do with people, where they live and where they work. I think you need a certain % of people to live in area X and commute and work in Area Y, before the census will combine counties or maybe even break up MSA's into smaller ones.

It's hard for me to believe that enough people don't commute for work between the two cities for the area to be designated a single MSA. Of course, there must be real data behind the decision, and perceptions don't always equal reality.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by BamaDave

It's hard for me to believe that enough people don't commute for work between the two cities for the area to be designated a single MSA. Of course, there must be real data behind the decision, and perceptions don't always equal reality.

That was my original question ... it seems that the 25% (or whatever the number is) probably already commute into the Huntsville area, so could it possibly be changed by the 2020 census. Not to mention that most here already think of the area as one. 565 is crowded to a stop inbound in the mornings and outbound in the afternoons. The Toyota plant will no likely increase those numbers and the plant will actually be closer to Decatur than it is Huntsville. It's not a stretch to think that many of the workers will be from or live in Morgan County.

[cjseliga]

Originally Posted by BamaDave

It's hard for me to believe that enough people don't commute for work between the two cities for the area to be designated a single MSA. Of course, there must be real data behind the decision, and perceptions don't always equal reality.

Yeah, it would interesting to see the "hard numbers" from the census bureau.

There is already a Huntsville-Decatur-Albertville, AL CSA (Combined Statistical Area), which of course is different from MSA's.

From Wikipedia:

The CSA is situated along the Tennessee River, and is made up of two separate metropolitan areas (Decatur and Huntsville) that are usually referred to as one. The area also consists of two micropolitan areas, Albertville and Fort Payne.

[MisterEd51]

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

That was my original question ... it seems that the 25% (or whatever the number is) probably already commute into the Huntsville area, so could it possibly be changed by the 2020 census. Not to mention that most here already think of the area as one. 565 is crowded to a stop inbound in the mornings and outbound in the afternoons. The Toyota plant will no likely increase those numbers and the plant will actually be closer to Decatur than it is Huntsville. It's not a stretch to think that many of the workers will be from or live in Morgan County.

The Toyota-Mazda plant won't open before 2021. Since the census is done in 2020 any economic effect won't show up in the data collected then. Any updates to the MSAs won't take place until maybe 2025. In any case the impact Toyota-Mazda may have to wait until the 2030 census. That means an update to the MSA in the 2035 time period.


It is unknown as to whether the OMB only considers the census data when it creates the recommendations for the Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by MisterEd51

The Toyota-Mazda plant won't open before 2021. Since the census is done in 2020 any economic effect won't show up in the data collected then. Any updates to the MSAs won't take place until maybe 2025. In any case the impact Toyota-Mazda may have to wait until the 2030 census. That means an update to the MSA in the 2035 time period.


It is unknown as to whether the OMB only considers the census data when it creates the recommendations for the Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

From what I've seen, SMSA changes are not necessarily concurrent with census years. I believe Knoxville was changed in 2013, which would have been two years after the 2010 census results were released. I think Birmingham's changes were in an "off" year too, but that is just a recollection.

Even so, without the Toyota plant, incoming traffic in the morning is already substantial (at a standstill at times) so the technicality of commuter percent may have already been reached. Decatur residents may not want to be in the same MSA, but I believe it would be beneficial to all concerned in the long run.

By the 2035 time period that you mentioned, Huntsville and Decatur could come close to almost physically meeting given the growth rate westward. It's almost to the point on Hwy 72 to Athens already ... just a couple miles from Madison to East Limestone housing now.