Growth in Huntsville / North Alabama (York, Cleveland: 2011, home builder, unemployment rate)

[BKOTH97]

If MG Myles is correct as he is quoted in the below article and we see 25,000 jobs out of BRAC, that would be enormous. Think about that. 25,000 DIRECT jobs. Those direct jobs spin off like 1.5 jobs for every Direct hire, which means a total of 50-60K new jobs in the area by probably 2012-2013 (BRAC moves should be done by 2011). Those 50K new jobs have families attached to them which means we can expect an additional 150,000 - 200,000 people in the area over the next 5 to 8 years. That just sounds insane to me. Where will they go? How will our government services handle that many people? I know that there are some people in City Government pretty much freaking out about the possibility, but for the most part it doesn't seem like the general population understands what this is going to do to the area.

Keep in mind that none of this takes into account any of the growth with the possible VW plant or any other business areas. This is straight DoD and Contractor growth.

Quote from James' Huntsville Development News Blog. Also pointing to an al.com article.

"...the 10,000 private jobs that are expected to follow the BRAC moves could be a "conservative" estimate, and the real number could turn out to be closer to 20,000. This is in addition to the 4,700 military jobs expected to come here by 2011, most from Northern Virginia. Since a majority of the current jobholders won't move to Huntsville, government and military leaders are marketing the city in technology "hotspots" such as Boston and San Jose, and are holding job fairs in cities like Atlanta and Cleveland."

referencng this article:
Private jobs to soar because of BRAC- al.com

[DanInHSV]

Well nobody will know what BRAC will really do to Huntsville till 2012 or so. I keep hearing very optimistic assumptions about all these thousands of jobs coming here. I almost suspect half of it is realtor/ home builder/ small business hype.

I'm sure the Army Major would like 10k more people under his command, but if you read the actual BRAC 2005 report at brac. gov - a net gain of 1,700 direct jobs is allocated and an anticpated 1,270 or so supporting jobs is predicted. The supporting jobs are everything from custodial work on the base to the grocery market clerk for the people from W Va. That's 2,925 jobs... !!! Not 50,000! And we'll see what congress does. They can indefinitely not budget the money to move the jobs even though BRAC says they move.

I'm getting tired of everyone around here hyping the numbers and double dipping the multiplier effect of indirect jobs. Soon the 1,500 jobs multiplies to 50,000. Somebody's got gold rush fever.

[Charles]

Well I guess it is better than reading this:

KNDO/KNDU Tri-Cities, Yakima, WA | Yakima Facing Job Losses

Georgia to lose 7,000 jobs this year, economist predicts | ajc.com

California Unemployment Rate Dips, but State Is Still Losing Jobs. | The Sacramento Bee (Sacramento, California ) (via Knight-Ridder/Tribune Business News) (, 2003)

jobfoxter.com - D&B - D&B Study Finds New York and California Losing Jobs, South ...

[NicoleC]

Thanks, Dan. Every time I hear someone talk about BRAC the numbers keep getting bigger and bigger, with nothing to back them up.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by NicoleC

Thanks, Dan. Every time I hear someone talk about BRAC the numbers keep getting bigger and bigger, with nothing to back them up.

I know it is a drop in the bucket but I know my management is planning on moving something like 100 jobs to Huntsville from the DC area ny 2011 or 2012. (I'm a get ahead volunteer.) In fact over the past year we have been getting those "Joe Schmo is leaving, let's say farewell at the local pub" emails as people are quiting rather than move to HSV. A lot of these guys are embedded in DC, have kids in high school, own homes that they bought when housing was less than $200/sqft, so they don't want to move.

Even if the estimates are off by a factor of three, it is still a lot of jobs.

[NicoleC]

No doubt it is boost for Huntsville, but some of the expectations getting tossed around are way out of whack.

[jsherman9901]

Originally Posted by NicoleC

No doubt it is boost for Huntsville, but some of the expectations getting tossed around are way out of whack.

Especially if a Democratic administration comes in to power in November. They will definitely take a very hard look at military spending and I wouldn't be surprised if missile defense gets whacked pretty good.

[Bravo35223]

The timing of this post is very ironic. As many of you know, I am an executive recruiter and often meet with people in top leadership positions.

I was in Huntsville Yesterday, speaking with someone in local leadership who said the following:

Original BRAC stix were: 1) Loss of 700 jobs 2) Gain of 5400 3) Leaving net gain of 4700.

The Dod is already realizing that moving some of the 700 out of Huntsville is a mistake and are sending some back so the loss will be less than projected.

Simultaneously, the Gain is going to be somewhat higher than the original 5400....so the net effect is going higher than originally projected.

This person was qualified to talk about the 'multipliers' and shared them with me....after listening, I calculated a 10-12% increase in the entire metro population in the next five years....

And he did recognize that what happens in the election could affect the area...so that wildcard is definitely in play...

[anjoe]

Thanks for any information...

[Charles]

Originally Posted by anjoe

Thanks for any information...

"job fair" engineers huntsville 2008 june july - Google Search