Two New Subdivisions Approved for Huntsville (Birmingham, Madison: real estate, foreclosures, HOA)

[ionlife]

Good luck with that idea--staying home is an option here. But good luck finding a home you love in the right school district for the amount of money you're talking about. No way. We thought we'd get what we got for at least 100K less than the price we paid. We kept edging higher.

And don't forget the fact that the sales tax here is 8.5% and is also applied to groceries.

COL is not so cheap here.

[rnc76]

Originally Posted by ionlife

Birmingham, Nashville, Knoxville. Knoxville's probably the best comparison because it is:

1) a UNIVERSITY CITY -- University of TN -- large instate school bringing in researchers, professors, and professionals.

2) Several hospitals--top notch--see above for professionals with money

3) HGTV is still based out of there--lots of marketing jobs there

4) OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY - great job market

5) TVA

And to top it all off they have the following:

1) cheaper housing
2) cheaper flights in and out of the area
3) a real downtown with lots of action for all ages--particularly young adults/young professionals
4) a huge variety of activities and events coming to the area
5) close to GATLINBURG, PIGEON FORGE and the GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL FOREST (read tourism).

The nicer areas of any of those cities are no cheaper than comparable areas of Huntsville. I think I could safely say that the nicest areas of Nashville and Birmingham are considerably more expensive $/sqft than anything in Huntsville. I can't speak for Knoxville because I don't know much about it.

[friday13]

Originally Posted by rnc76

I have a hard time seeing how Huntsville is overpriced. I can't think of another metro in the country with the kind of job market that HSV has that has cheaper housing costs.

It is cheaper for the people that came here with the DC and CA pay (read transfers) as someone previously said.

It is not cheaper for a non-defense worker - read the "local manufacturing in the dumps" threads. And I am sure same goes for the nurse, cashier, teacher, assembly-liner.

[CharlotteRJ]

Originally Posted by ionlife

Good luck with that idea--staying home is an option here. But good luck finding a home you love in the right school district for the amount of money you're talking about. No way. We thought we'd get what we got for at least 100K less than the price we paid. We kept edging higher.

And don't forget the fact that the sales tax here is 8.5% and is also applied to groceries.

COL is not so cheap here.

Well, that's *no* mortgage. We figure we'll have some mortgage to get what we want and need.

[friday13]

Originally Posted by ionlife

After checking days on market here in the area over the past few years, I am constantly surprised by the unwillingness of people to mark down their older homes. Why? Oh they believe they should make more money--

I know of one house where the original owners got into it for 350K. They are trying to sell it for 450Kplus less than 4 years after they took ownership. Why do they deserve a 100K markup? Because the BRAC is coming and people can afford it?

Again, they are too smart to pay that inflated price.

So if you know all these facts, I demand you acknowledge I was right: it is a seller's market (for the most part), contrary to your initial response to my statement.

Oh wait, 4 years back, just about when BRAC was announced. What about the "ad-hoc investor" rush taking place after 2005. And even today, some people hold on to their beloved overpriced house like the grips of death.

Originally Posted by ionlife

...Because the BRAC is coming and people can afford it?

Again, they are too smart to pay that inflated price.

I give you that - but answer this: what will BRAC do when they have to move eventually? Nothing but buy into the overpriced houses. Why? Because it is a known fact (sellers know it) and playing a waiting game.
I am instead curious to see after BRAC move is completed, what factors will put pressure on the market? Just the normal empty-nesters downsizing, chasing out a school, minor change.
I'd be more anxious to see how much a house bought these days will sell in 10-15 yr for (if we indeed are in a BRAC-induced bubble). Only time will tell.
And god forbid majority-defense Hsv will find itself in some funding wars in 15-20 yr. or that another BRAC will move us to the AZ desert, or the wheat-fields of Montana

[Elizabeth_G]

HB2HSV: This ones for you I know you like stat's, so here we go! I'm going to figure these by high schools. I could do hyper-local absorption rates all day long, so I'm narrowing it down to the 3 most popular high schools.

Bob Jones-Madison City: $200-$250,000 price range: current absorption rate is 7.78 months. (Buyers market). Average list to sale price in the past 12 months has been 97.38%.
$250,001-$300,000 range: Current absorption rate is 8.34 months. Average list to sale price is 97.83%. Again, buyers market.

Grissom High-$200,000-$250,000 range: Current absorption rate is 7.94 months. Average list to sale price for the past 12 months has been 97.20%. Buyers market.
$250,001-$300,000 range: Current absorption rate is 10.33 months. Average list to sale price has been 98.54%. Buyers market.

Huntsville High-$200-250,000 range: Current absorption rate is 8.86 with an average list to sale price of 97.07%. Buyers market
$250,001-$300,000 range: 8.78 months supply with an average list to sale price of 98.19%. Buyers market

Clearly, we are not in a sellers market here. Over a 6 month supply is considered a sellers market. I do feel, however, that our market is fairly strong, as the numbers are supporting that.

[friday13]

Originally Posted by Elizabeth_G

HB2HSV: This ones for you I know you like stat's, so here we go! I'm going to figure these by high schools. I could do hyper-local absorption rates all day long, so I'm narrowing it down to the 3 most popular high schools.

Bob Jones-Madison City: $200-$250,000 price range: current absorption rate is 7.78 months. (Buyers market). Average list to sale price in the past 12 months has been 97.38%.
$250,001-$300,000 range: Current absorption rate is 8.34 months. Average list to sale price is 97.83%. Again, buyers market.

Grissom High-$200,000-$250,000 range: Current absorption rate is 7.94 months. Average list to sale price for the past 12 months has been 97.20%. Buyers market.
$250,001-$300,000 range: Current absorption rate is 10.33 months. Average list to sale price has been 98.54%. Buyers market.

Huntsville High-$200-250,000 range: Current absorption rate is 8.86 with an average list to sale price of 97.07%. Buyers market
$250,001-$300,000 range: 8.78 months supply with an average list to sale price of 98.19%. Buyers market

Clearly, we are not in a sellers market here. Over a 6 month supply is considered a sellers market. I do feel, however, that our market is fairly strong, as the numbers are supporting that.

Yes, and Mr. Jared (the jeweler) would say:
"Come on in, folks, I marked down 80% !" - My question to Mr. J though: "how much was the markUP to begin with?"

But thank you for the analysis, EG.
Statistics are indeed a great science (some say manipulative): doing and reading/interpreting the stats. And the concept named "average" is quite a tricky one. At the office party today Jane ate an average of 7 cookies, but somewhat she feels hungry now. Oh wait, she really did not eat the 6 cookies, her coworkers did! (17 and 3). She just secretly hopes that the one that ate the 17 will suffer a massive cookie-induced condition.

[HB2HSV]

Originally Posted by Elizabeth_G

HB2HSV: This ones for you I know you like stat's, so here we go! I'm going to figure these by high schools. I could do hyper-local absorption rates all day long, so I'm narrowing it down to the 3 most popular high schools.

Bob Jones-Madison City: $200-$250,000 price range: current absorption rate is 7.78 months. (Buyers market). Average list to sale price in the past 12 months has been 97.38%.
$250,001-$300,000 range: Current absorption rate is 8.34 months. Average list to sale price is 97.83%. Again, buyers market.

Grissom High-$200,000-$250,000 range: Current absorption rate is 7.94 months. Average list to sale price for the past 12 months has been 97.20%. Buyers market.
$250,001-$300,000 range: Current absorption rate is 10.33 months. Average list to sale price has been 98.54%. Buyers market.

Huntsville High-$200-250,000 range: Current absorption rate is 8.86 with an average list to sale price of 97.07%. Buyers market
$250,001-$300,000 range: 8.78 months supply with an average list to sale price of 98.19%. Buyers market

Clearly, we are not in a sellers market here. Over a 6 month supply is considered a sellers market. I do feel, however, that our market is fairly strong, as the numbers are supporting that.

Elizabeth, if I can rep you I would.

But allow me to be a critic -- how about

Bob Jones-Madison City: BELOW $200K BRAND NEW HOUSES

The Ashbury subdivision has brand new single family homes, just off county line road in the city of Madison, starting from $140K. They are selling like HOT CAKES !!

But beware, it's built by Breland homes !!! According to some here, they build homes for the undesirables low-income buyers Oh wait, those are Hampton Covers. Those of us who live in Madison do not discriminate you based on income

But please !!! Use the realtors that frequent City-data to represent you as buyers !!! [disclaimer: I am not one]

[Elizabeth_G]

HB2HSV: ROTFL. You're hired! I'll figure the below $200,000 when I get back from picking my daughter up from marching band practice. Let me know if you want other price ranges, areas, etc. It pays to be a suck up

[Diffy Q]

Elizabeth G - Thank you for the supporting statistics. IMHO, it is a buyers market. As it is in a lot of places right now.

We are with BRAC and will be moving down next spring. I have been watching your market for over a year. Since last summer we have received three offers from sellers, two of them since Monday. I didn't really know what to think about that. One practically begged for us to make an offer. I felt sorry for them but we are not quite ready to buy.

Your area has much nicer housing stock than NoVa. We will get a lot of house for our money, regardless of the price range. In much of Fairfax County, $600,000 gets you a 42 year-old house that needs work. It's not glamorous at all. It's just a fact of life here.