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Old 07-20-2010, 02:20 AM
 
Location: Invercargill, New Zealand
2,818 posts, read 5,468,333 times
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Code Orange at the moment,

Something worth watching in the coming week. Thread should get a bit more busier later on one would think.
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Old 07-20-2010, 04:48 PM
 
Location: Eastern NC
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Looks like Florida should be watching this one.
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Old 07-20-2010, 04:56 PM
 
Location: Orlando, Fl
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Not to worry (much)......
Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping
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Old 07-20-2010, 10:59 PM
 
Location: somewhere close to Tampa, but closer to the beach
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Evening.. yep, 97 is looking more favorable at the moment..with a 60% chance of developing into a depression, at the least, ..over the next 24-48 hours..according to the latest from the National Hurricane Center and NOAA.

Current best guess as far as where 97 (aka: possibly Bonnie??.. by Thursday??) MIGHT go at this time takes it N.W. through the Bahamas and into South Florida..somewhere between the Keys and Miami..Then up towards the Tampa Bay/Sarasota region and then back out into the N.E. GOMEX. and then anywhere between the FL. panhandle and far eastern TX. with a concentration of ensamble model tracks between LA. and AL. so, i'd advise any and everyone within any of the possible scenerio areas to closely watch how things develop over the next several days..

At the current time, IF if does take a track north west from Miami to/through the Tampa Bay region, looks like we can expect activity starting sometime Friday/Friday evening..( Maybe late Thursday in Miami )and into the weekend..depending ofcourse on how quickly or slowly it approaches and passes over this part of the state..

While 97 doesn't currently look like it could turn into a monster storm, much can happen over the next 3-4 days..depending on how quickly it gets it's act together..

My best guess at the moment is that it will reach Tropical storm/possibly borderline cat. 1 Hurricane strength before reaching FL. That is IF it doesn't stay further south..or there aren't some surprise developments between now and say Thursday evening.. Things are pretty ripe for a fast developing storm but i don't think this one fits the bill..

Once it gets into the Gulf, depending on how long it is out there..and other factors, it may or may not become more of a concern..way too early to tell..

Of note beyond 97 is the next wave just coming off Africa and a pretty strong wave currently over Central Africa.. I have a feeling one of them might definately need to be closely monitered with time. As mentioned on another site, the MJO will be in a favorable position to get more activity going off the Cape Verdes over the next week or so..

Regardless, looks like our lull in activity may be coming to an end.. just be ready..
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Old 07-22-2010, 07:58 PM
 
Location: somewhere close to Tampa, but closer to the beach
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Default Good evening Bonnie

..She is on the way

Been monitering the latest from the NHC through out the day and 97L was upgraded to Tropical Storm status sometime over the past hour or so..

At this time, most models are taking Bonnie WNW-ward through the Florida Straits and into the GOMEX with potential landfall somewhere in Louisiana and Mississippi..not good news for the Oil spill area..BUT, as always, things can change..

If Bonnie stays on a more NW-ward course, which she seems to be doing currently, South Florida will see more adverse effects from the storm..Followed by areas south of Orlando and the Tampa Bay region and then out into the Gulf..with a possible second landfall further east of where the majority of models are placing Bonnie right now..

In Any event, everyone from the Florida east coast to E. TX. should be prepared for possible Tropical Storm conditions within the next 3-5 days..

While i don't expect anything beyond a heavy rain/wind event for us here in Florida,(especially here in the Tampa Bay area) things could become a little more interesting once Bonnie enters the Gulf, especially if she spends time there before making a landfall..

IF she does take the over land route, even if just over the southern most part of Florida, this could take a little steam out of the system before it emerges into the E. Gulf.

The potential trouble could come if Bonnie stays out over water in the straits and then turns NW giving the system more time to further develop.

NO one at the moment is calling for this one to attain Hurricane status but nothing is ever certain with Tropical systems..so just keep up with the lastest information from your local weather stations..

Beyond Bonnie, GFS models continue hinting at another Tropical wave approaching FL. sometime next week..
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Old 07-23-2010, 01:47 AM
 
Location: Invercargill, New Zealand
2,818 posts, read 5,468,333 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by si33 View Post
..She is on the way

Been monitering the latest from the NHC through out the day and 97L was upgraded to Tropical Storm status sometime over the past hour or so..

At this time, most models are taking Bonnie WNW-ward through the Florida Straits and into the GOMEX with potential landfall somewhere in Louisiana and Mississippi..not good news for the Oil spill area..BUT, as always, things can change..

If Bonnie stays on a more NW-ward course, which she seems to be doing currently, South Florida will see more adverse effects from the storm..Followed by areas south of Orlando and the Tampa Bay region and then out into the Gulf..with a possible second landfall further east of where the majority of models are placing Bonnie right now..

In Any event, everyone from the Florida east coast to E. TX. should be prepared for possible Tropical Storm conditions within the next 3-5 days..

While i don't expect anything beyond a heavy rain/wind event for us here in Florida,(especially here in the Tampa Bay area) things could become a little more interesting once Bonnie enters the Gulf, especially if she spends time there before making a landfall..

IF she does take the over land route, even if just over the southern most part of Florida, this could take a little steam out of the system before it emerges into the E. Gulf.

The potential trouble could come if Bonnie stays out over water in the straits and then turns NW giving the system more time to further develop.

NO one at the moment is calling for this one to attain Hurricane status but nothing is ever certain with Tropical systems..so just keep up with the lastest information from your local weather stations..

Beyond Bonnie, GFS models continue hinting at another Tropical wave approaching FL. sometime next week..
Thanks for keep us updated! Been to busy with work to follow this system so far but found out that we Bonnie!
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Old 07-23-2010, 06:43 AM
 
Location: Yellow cottage, green doors.
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Looking out the window this morning says Bonnie is here. Heavy rains & wind gusts...it's the most beautiful weather in the world....FIRST band of heavy rain was at 3:54 a.m. this morning.
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Old 07-23-2010, 08:32 AM
 
Location: Yellow cottage, green doors.
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Darn! Now all the rain is in the 2 counties south of me. Now I'm disappointed. Sure hope things pick up during today, here in Palm Beach county.
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Old 07-23-2010, 08:06 PM
 
Location: somewhere close to Tampa, but closer to the beach
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Default Bonnie exits Florida and is downgraded..

Good Friday evening everyone!!

As of 8:45 local time, what was Tropical storm Bonnie is currently located just SW of the Ft. Meyers area and quickly exiting off to the WNW.

What rain bands had accompanied the system are mostly confined to the Gulf waters with a scattering of showers over the SW and Central portions of the state..with occasional wind gusts to around 15-20 MPH. and yes, the sun has been trying to peek through over the last couple hours..so, in relative terms, a pretty uneventfull system..

Rainfall locally should only amount to perhaps just under an inch or so in most spots and really, the only significant rainfall reported further south was a narrow swath of 1 1/2-2 inches just south of Miami as the storm came ashore there..

Overall, the storm tore itself appart as it crossed the southern part of the state and, due to it's continued prox. to the Upper Level Low further to the west, is not expected to regain and significant strength before approaching LA. sometime tomorrow..even though it is now crossing warmer waters in the E. gulf..

Current thought is that dry air from that pesky ULL will continue to inhibit what remains of this system..keeping it from develop into anything of any real concern.

Most forecasters think that it will come ashore there as a minimal Tropical storm..maybe in the 45-50MPH wind range..but Hurricane strengthening is not anticipated by any of the models, nor the NHC. Also, it is looking like that when it comes ashore, it should do so around the time of Low Tide in that region and may not add much to the damage from the oil spill along the LA. coastline and marshland areas just beyond the coast..

Of interesting note, some of the remnants from Bonnie may end up swinging around the Upper Level Ridge over the East Coast and head back towards the coast in 4-6 or 7 days from now.. and, depending on the position of a front which is modeled to be hanging out in the area about the same time, might need to be watched..but, it is much too early to tell what, if anything may occur at this time..This was something i came across in a weather blog id looked over earlier..

Meanwhile, the disturbed area which was positioned to the right of Bonnie over the Caribbean is being monitered just incase it decides to act up..

Most then likely, it will just bring a continued chance for enhanced Thunderstorm activity for Florida over the next couple of days..

Several other waves are positioned to emerge into the E. ATL in the coming days from Africa and wil be monitered..Looks like Bonnie might have opened the door just a little more??..Just have to wait and see..

For the time being, just enjoy the break from the heat, and some much needed rain..I know my Orchid collection appreciates it lol..
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