Debbie Forming in the Gulf 6/22/12 (Another Record) (rain, live, flood)

[cdcdguy]

Originally Posted by Cambium

This pic was al over the net. Right click properties for source of this one.

Bright House Field in Clearwater, Florida on June 24, 2012

Pretty neat picture. Good thing they were not playing yesterday.....

I have seen these weak tropical storms(windwise) drop way more rain than Hurricanes. It is pretty clear now Debby won't ever attain Hurricane status, but could gain strength in the Atlantic.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by cdcdguy

Pretty neat picture. Good thing they were not playing yesterday.....

I have seen these weak tropical storms(windwise) drop way more rain than Hurricanes. It is pretty clear now Debby won't ever attain Hurricane status, but could gain strength in the Atlantic.

Yeah your right.. These systems dont have the momentum so they easily stall or move slow. And it keeps tapping the warm Gulf waters. Almost like lifting the Gulf of Mexico and putting it down somewhere else. But atmosphere can only handle so much water at a time.

I dont believe those runs of the GFS and Euro bringing it up the coast and missing land by a couple hundred miles. I think its going OTS from Florida south of bermuda

[Cambium]

NHC Path update.. I see 2 things...

1. They once again shifted East. lol.. Scroll up to see what they originally thought.
2. They extend the cone left more with the "chance"(slim) it comes up the coast towards North Carolina



...DEBBY CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW EASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES
OVER LAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

[cdcdguy]

[quote=Cambium;24906612]NHC Path update.. I see 2 things...

1. They once again shifted East. lol.. Scroll up to see what they originally thought.
2. They extend the cone left more with the "chance"(slim) it comes up the coast towards North Carolina



...DEBBY CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Well, the models have not done a good job with where this one will go. Initially it was heading west toward Texas! In all fairness, the Hurricane Center has gotten very good, especially the last several years predicting where they would go. The Florida to Bermuda track looks likely.

I can't find any data, but once a storm moves out in the Atlantic they generally move more east. It would take a more northerly track to hit to NC. But, I am sure it has happened.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by cdcdguy

Well, the models have not done a good job with where this one will go. Initially it was heading west toward Texas! In all fairness, the Hurricane Center has gotten very good, especially the last several years predicting where they would go. The Florida to Bermuda track looks likely.

I can't find any data, but once a storm moves out in the Atlantic they generally move more east. It would take a more northerly track to hit to NC. But, I am sure it has happened.

NHC uses models to forecast.. So To be accurate, if we think NHC got better, that means the models got better. Which I agree with.

The more I learn about weather models the more complex it gets. But to simplify it.

There's 4 major ones: GFS, Euro, Canadien, NAM. Only one of those goes out 2 weeks. 2 of them go out 10 days. and the NAM 5 days.

Then there's the reliable 12hr model called HRRR, good for precip/storms. There's many other short range models like WRF, ect.

Then there's the Hurricane models. Not sure how many but lets say there's over 10 of them. GFDL, ADMI, BAMM, HWFI, TVCN, ect ect.

The one model which never had it going towards Texas was the GFS.. it was so consistant on bringing it over Florida since 2 weeks ago every single day that everyone was blasting the american model for having something wrong with it. I was on the fence with a wait and see since every single model was all over the place.

As far as storms like this one, this early and a path up the coast, Look for Elma in 1966 and Abby in 1968. I'm sure theres more.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

In fact record for most 24 hr rainfall in the U.S is 23".. I think there's a spot in Florida with 17" from Debby alone.

Ditches are filling up and overflowing onto road.

::HUGE CORRECTION HERE::

Dr. Forbes from TWC confirmed he said "43"" NOT 23.
Dr. Greg Forbes | Facebook

"The US record is 43 inches in 24 hours at Alvin TX in 1979. That could be broken sometime but has not been and probably won't be now from Debby. One location got 26.21" (Sanborn, FL) from the storm and most of that was in less than 24h I believe."

[Cambium]

Lots of Warnings in Florida last couple days from Tornados to flooding. Here's a few.

Public Service (Civil Emergency or Danger) Watch FLC125-271030-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 822 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF UNION COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TRAVEL ACROSS UNION COUNTY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. THE UNION COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE REQUESTS THAT PEOPLE STAY AT HOME AND OFF THE ROADS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE UNDER WATER...SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SANDBAGS ARE AVAILABLE FOR PICKUP AT THE UNION COUNTY ROAD DEPARTMENT ACROSS FROM RMC - WEST UNIT NEXT TO OJ PHILLIPS RECREATIONAL COMPLEX.

IF A LIFE IS IN DANGER...CALL 911

--------------------------------

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 842 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF CLAY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

BLACK CREEK AND ALL ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE AT MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AND ARE PROJECTED TO CREST OVER RECORD FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALL RESIDENTS IN THE VICINITY OF BLACK CREEK AND ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MANY LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE COUNTY...AND IS IMPACTING HOMES IN THESE AREAS.

A SHELTER IS OPEN AT MIDDLEBURG HIGH SCHOOL...3750 COUNTY ROAD 220...MIDDLEBURG. IF YOU HAVE ANY SPECIAL NEEDS...OR NEED ASSISTANCE IN RELOCATING...PLEASE CONTACT CLAY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AT THE FOLLOWING PHONE NUMBER...904-284-7703

------------------------------------

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF SUWANNEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS IN SUWANNEE COUNTY.

A SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED AT THE COLISEUM...1302 11TH STREET...LIVE OAK. PEOPLE WHO DECIDE TO EVACUATE LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION...AND SHOULD NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

OTHERWISE...TRAVEL ACROSS SUWANNEE COUNTY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. THE SUWANNEE COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE REQUESTS THAT PEOPLE STAY AT HOME AND OFF THE ROADS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE UNDER WATER...SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN SOME LOCATIONS.

A BOIL WATER NOTICE IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SUWANNEE COUNTY. BRING WATER TO A FULL ROLLING BOIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MINUTE AND ALLOW TO COOL BEFORE DRINKING OR USING IN FOOD PREPARATION.

IF YOU HAVE FLOODING IMPACTING YOUR HOME...YOU CAN CALL THE FOLLOWING PHONE NUMBER FOR ASSISTANCE..386-364-3405.

--------------------------------

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FRANKLIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

DUE TO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ON MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE PREDICTED FOR THE NEW RIVER...CROOKED RIVER...AND THE CARRABELLE RIVER IN FRANKLIN COUNTY. MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THESE RIVERS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE LEVELS ON THESE RIVERS ARE DIFFICULT TO MONITOR...THE FRANKLIN COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS HAVE ISSUED AN EVACUATION NOTICE FOR RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE NEW RIVER...CROOKED RIVER...AND THE CARRABELLE RIVER.

------------------------------

..FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MAJOR SEVERITY... THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE. * FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 10:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.8 FEET. * MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 31.0 FEET BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. * IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...MAJOR DAMAGE AND DISRUPTION TO THE COMMUNITY IS EXPECTED. ROADS WILL BE CUT OFF AND MANY HOMES WILL BE SURROUNDED BY WATER. BOAT WASH DAMAGE TO HOMES WILL BE SEVERE.

[cdcdguy]

Good news this morning.. rain looks much weaker with Former storm Debby. Still, if it gets to the Atlantic if could gain some power. Looks like it has merged with an old frontal system right now.

[Cambium]

Does anone have an Aerial view of Northern Florida right now??

Couple of reports past hour.

1023 AM FLOOD 06/28/2012 SUWANNEE, FL NWS EMPLOYEE
SINK HOLE DEVELOPED 1 BLOCK FROM INTERSECTION OF HWY 90 AND SR 129. A FEW STRUCTURES IN DANGER OF BEING ENGULFED INTO EXPANDING SINK HOLE.

1050 AM FLOOD 06/28/2012 BAKER, FL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A BRIDGE FLOATING DOWN THE ST MARYS RIVER. SPECIFIC LOCATION IS BEING DETERMINED.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008...nw/sn.0063.txt

[Cambium]

Interesting graphic that shows how rare the rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby really was. Most of Wakulla County had a 1 in 500 year event. This means the chance of seeing this type of flooding again in any given year is around 1 in 500.

US National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida | Facebook