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Anyone think there is a good chance for this to go into the Gulf?
My personal opinion is it will but Im not a pro. If the islands weaken it, there's more of a chance it will. But models now starting to be consistant on a Florida hit.
My personal opinion is it will but Im not a pro. If the islands weaken it, there's more of a chance it will. But models now starting to be consistant on a Florida hit.
Looks like Tampa and Naples are being eyed at this point...
You dont have to look hard to realize the massive High pressure in the Atlantic. Tropical systems follows the path of least resistance. Thats why we its been just moving West as opposed to recurving yet. Its underneath that ridge.
Some models have the ridge weaker then others in 6 days and thats why some recurve it to east coast and some into Gulf.
If you're in the NorthEast, dont let the tracks fool you. It simply means the Low pressure will track that way. Doesnt mean a Hurricane or TS will hit. It will weaken over the islands, then strengthen, then weaken as soon as it hits Florida.
So my point is, this is not a threat for the East coast from Virginia Northwards. Flooding maybe, Tropical conditions, no.
GFS hits Florida as a Cat 1.
NAM not in range yet but shows it going east of Florida.
GGEM hits North Carolina as a Cat 2.
Euro hits Louisiana as a Cat 2.
Thanks Cambium. What is considered to be the most reliable model? I remember a weather guy say the Euro one was the most reliable.
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