Invest 94L becomes TS Isaac in the Atlantic (warm, day, storms)

[doggiebus]

Anyone think there is a good chance for this to go into the Gulf?

[mary54mi]

Tropical Storm Isaac Forms - weather.com

Like the short reports with refences to history here.
Now to check our supply list...

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by doggiebus

Anyone think there is a good chance for this to go into the Gulf?

My personal opinion is it will but Im not a pro. If the islands weaken it, there's more of a chance it will. But models now starting to be consistant on a Florida hit.

[Cambium]

Here's a site that gives you percentage probabilities of a hit on a specific location.

Tropical Cyclone Track Probability: Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by Cambium

My personal opinion is it will but Im not a pro. If the islands weaken it, there's more of a chance it will. But models now starting to be consistant on a Florida hit.

Looks like Tampa and Naples are being eyed at this point...

[Cambium]

Whats the one thing that stands out here?

You dont have to look hard to realize the massive High pressure in the Atlantic. Tropical systems follows the path of least resistance. Thats why we its been just moving West as opposed to recurving yet. Its underneath that ridge.

Some models have the ridge weaker then others in 6 days and thats why some recurve it to east coast and some into Gulf.

[Cambium]

Another thing to look at is the steering currents.

If the storm is 1000-1010mb in strength use the 700-850 layer.

The strength is labeled at the top with this link. Layer Mean Wind - West Atlantic - Steering Layer 700-850mb - Latest Available=

So if it stays the strength it is right now, it most likely would head to tip of Florida.

[Cambium]

If you're in Florida, heads up.

If you're in the NorthEast, dont let the tracks fool you. It simply means the Low pressure will track that way. Doesnt mean a Hurricane or TS will hit. It will weaken over the islands, then strengthen, then weaken as soon as it hits Florida.

So my point is, this is not a threat for the East coast from Virginia Northwards. Flooding maybe, Tropical conditions, no.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical.../at201209.html

[Cambium]

No agreement with the main models on Isaac.

GFS hits Florida as a Cat 1.
NAM not in range yet but shows it going east of Florida.
GGEM hits North Carolina as a Cat 2.
Euro hits Louisiana as a Cat 2.

I believe the GFS solution will be correct

[doggiebus]

Thanks Cambium. What is considered to be the most reliable model? I remember a weather guy say the Euro one was the most reliable.