TS Andrea forms in the Gulf 6/5/13 (2013, storms, season, cyclone)

[Tony22]

12z GFS is starting to catch onto the idea of the Tropical system getting absorbed by the trough and coming northward. The 12z GGEM continues to give the area really heavy rain this weekend.



CMC GLOBAL MODEL LOOP

[Cambium]

You dont need to be a meteorologist to see the path of least resistance. Big Block in Atlantic! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom =&time=

[Cambium]

[Cambium]

LOL. Do you think the NCEP Ensemble models agree on a track? Wow. This thing might not even become a Tropical Storm

[Cambium]

They found a closed circulation when they flew in it earlier. Sooooo,

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cambium]

[Cambium]

History of all Tropical Storms in June within 2 degrees of Andrea. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201301_climo.html

[Infamous92]

This should be annoying.

[birminghamster]

http://http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/024912.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the Atlantic season, formed today in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm warnings have been posted for parts of Florida where it is expected to make landfall tomorrow afternoon, and watches extend up the Atlantic coast to North Carolina. Andrea is forecast to move up the East Coast as a tropical storm.

[birminghamster]

Could be moving to NYC area as a minimal tropical storm/huge rainmaker.