Danny forms in the Atlantic. 8/18/15 (rain)

[BullochResident]

Glad to see it become a major hurricane! Shame it won't last long. Imagine if one of these small cyclones blew up in the northern Gulf of Mexico like this without much warning. Weathermen would be freaking out like crazy!

[Cambium]

The mountains will weaken it if it goes over land.

5pm Update:

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...DANNY LIKELY AT PEAK INTENSITY...
...FORECAST TO WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 49.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Danny. Tropical storm watches may be required for portions of the
Leeward Islands on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 49.1 West. Danny is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is
expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. This makes Danny a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Danny is moving into an area of
unfavorable upper-level winds, and weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
remains a very small tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier data from
the NOAA aircraft is 974 mb (28.77 inches).

[Quert]

Originally Posted by BullochResident

Glad to see it become a major hurricane!

Say that when you're in its direct path. I know we need the rain here in the Virgin Islands, but we don't need any damage. I don't trust any predictions still until the last hour before land fall.

[Cambium]

Not Texas but get ready for some rain and wind Florida... maybe? Would be a depression by time it gets there

https://twitter.com/JohnHonore/statu...54371198648320

[Psychoma]

At least there's a chance it may help with the drought some in the Caribbean and possibly Miami area.

[Cambium]

The winner is.....

https://twitter.com/letschatweather/...40484361756673

[Azula]

I may be wrong, but from what I've been reading, Danny's small, tight circulation appears to be the very thing that could keep it from being ripped to shreds. Tiny systems like this, to my understanding are harder to predict and are more prone to sudden changes in strength. I wouldn't count Danny boy out just yet.

[Psychoma]

Yes, smaller storms are harder to predict and can change suddenly in strength...we saw this the other day with Danny when it jumped to a cat3 hurricane in just a few hours. It's small compact size is likely what actually protected it just for a few extra, and allowed it to strengthen hours before the dry air/shear got it.

It's so amazing to me, that you have these (usually) large storm systems (hurricanes), yet an upper level wind or a little dry air gets near them and can tear them apart or turn them so effortlessly as if they're bouncing off a wall!

We will have to watch Danny as, what little remains of it at that point, may be in a temporary area that could allow it to gain some strength back in a few days...but that's a long time out in the world of hurricanes so remains to be seen. Lot more warm water out there for it to feed off of later!

[srfoskey]

Now Danny's gone. That was fast.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by srfoskey

Now Danny's gone. That was fast.

Never really had a chance between the dry and and wind shear.

So another major cane without a hit on the U.S.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...82263553572865