Thurs 10/1/2015 - 5amEST update: Winds 120mph, moving WSW at 5mph, pressure 948mb.
Strength:
Joaquin finally underwent the expected rapid intensification Wednesday evening and is now a Cat3 hurricane. Further strengthening is expected as conditions are favorable until early Friday. We could see a strong Cat4 hurricane in the next 24 hours. By early Friday the slow movement may cause cooler waters to up-well. Warm waters are hurricane food. Fluctuations in strength are likely as the hurricane undergoes eyewall replacement cycles periodically. It will also start to finally interact with our stirring air currents and start to encounter lite shear and start its turn North sometime Friday which will steadily bring it up over cooler (but still warm) waters then what the Bahamas have to offer it = start of weakening process.
NHC forecast:
Last night model outputs:
Track:
Bahamas sitting right on the edge of a major storm!
We're sadly in a waiting period still I'd say. It may be tomorrow before we have a better handle on where this will go and even then it looks to be a tricky forecast. Models have shifted back to the right (East) some.
We have a problem with the last couple GFS model (one of the main models) runs which doesn't help in the uncertainty of this storms track. It is initializing at a higher pressure then the storm actually is again...last night's run started at 965mb....at 11pm last night the pressure was actually 951mb and dropping. This affects the outcome of where it says Joaquin will go. Last nights ECMWF was off too though and keeps the storm further south, but this model for 3 days straight takes Joaquin out to sea. Too early to say...
We REALLY need model consensus to get a better idea of where / when this will go!!
Joaquin currently moving WSW and should start by late Thursday into Friday a turn (or drift we should say with such slow movement) to the West and then to the WNW as it starts the expected turn.
Expected to pick up forward movement speed and start to head North sometime Friday.
Model guidance overnight has shifted back east some. MUCH uncertainty remains. There is the possibility the storm stays off the US East coast and suddenly swings back in somewhere else along the coast. Residents along the coast should have a plan in place in case this happens. Keep in mind heavy inland rains have already occurred with more on the way which may hinder your plans timing / ability to execute should this occur.
NHC: "Given the large shift in some of the guidance, the NHC track has been adjusted just a little to the east and slower at days 3 through 5, and now lies on the left side of the multi-model consensus and left of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF solutions. Confidence remains very low in the eventual track of Joaquin and any potential impacts for the United States, and further adjustments to the NHC track may be needed later today."
Special message from the NHC:
"KEY MESSAGES:
1.
Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas
should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin during the next 24
to 36 hours will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds,
storm surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands.
2.
Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains
low, as there have been some large changes in the model guidance
overnight. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and
the possibility of a hurricane landfall in the Carolinas still
cannot be ruled out.
3.
Efforts continue to provide the forecast models with as much
data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet flew the first in a series of
missions in the storm environment last night, and these missions
will continue today. The National Weather Service also continues to
launch extra balloon soundings.
4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States.
Regardless of Joaquin's
track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal
flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern
states through the weekend.
5.
A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as tonight.
6. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing
heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These
heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if
the center of Joaquin stays offshore.
The resulting inland flood
potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is
possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas."
Measurements:
How are they monitoring the storm? By flying right into the middle of it! The Hurricane Hunters use multiple aircraft filled with sensors and equipment to monitor the storm and surrounding conditions. They launch dropsonde's out of the plane that take measurements on their way down through the storm and relay that data back to the plane. Some of the planes are now able to transmit live data back to the US during missions that greatly aids in getting the information as quickly as possible so that it can be analyzed and put into the computer models so they can be more accurate. Meet one of the birds helping keeping you safe:
One of many flight plans:
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